Trends Analysis: Scorchers-Heat head-to-head history & Canberra form lines
It’s easy to spend hours mulling over your preferred XI for these final few SuperCoach BBL rounds. Unlimited trades gives you unlimited choice. And also it’s easy to make a case for anybody.
But there are some trends which may give you an edge or help you make a final decision on a certain player, which will give you comfort that you’ve made the right call.
Ultimately, having a sound reason for a selection is the best way to avoid trade regret, irrespective of how the performance goes, as that part is often fickle, particularly in the BBL.
So Honeyball decided to take a look at a variety of trends ahead of Scorchers-Heat clash on Thursday night in Canberra.
Across the past three seasons, these two clubs have met six times, all in regular season matches. The Heat line-up has changed vastly, while the Scorchers has been more steady.
But there’s a few trends across the journey, led by Heat skipper Chris Lynn ($184k BAT) who made scores of 51, 27, 14, 14, 33 and 56* across those six games against Perth. He hasn’t fallen below 14.
He’s also been out to spin on four of those occasions, including Fawad Ahmed twice. Bowling spin to Lynn seems an obvious tactic the Scorchers will utilize.
In the two games against Perth this season, Lynn’s BBL SC scores have been 86 and 62.
Beyond Lynn, the Heat side has changed so much this season, that there’s few genuine trends from this seasons two games, although Marnus Labuschagne ($250k BAT/BWL) and Mitch Swepson ($163k BWL) scored 139 and 80 BBL SC points respectively last time they met.
Mitch Marsh ($115k BAT/BWL) is one player many coaches are weighing up selecting, given he won’t bowl and is batting down at five, but his past two scores against the Heat are compelling.
Marsh has finished unbeaten in his past two bats against Brisbane with scores of 54* off 26 balls and 93* off 41 deliveries.
Scorchers opener Liam Livingstone ($165k BAT/BWL) has fallen to spin in three of the four matches he’s played against the Heat, twice to Zahir Khan last season and once to Swepson this season. But he’s also made starts of 32, 17, 39 and 12 on all four occasions.
The Perth fast bowler were relatively consistent in both games against the Heat this season, with Andrew Tye ($151k BWL) scoring 63 and 74 BBL SC points, Jason Behrendorff ($167k BWL) posting up 63 and 57 BBL SC points and Jhye Richardson ($211k BWL) netting 37 and 75 BBL SC points.
The Scorchers took 17 wickets across the two games, despite winning one and losing one.
Scott ‘Catta’ Anderson (currently ranked 129th) shares some SuperCoach BBL gold on Twitter, including recent form at specific venues.
The Heat have played four games at Manuka Oval this season, with Lynn scoring plenty at a good rate, so he likes the ground, while Mark Steketee ($144k BWL) has taken five wickets from three matches in Canberra, including four in his past two games.
Interestingly, in the Scorchers’ three games in Canberra, their bowlers have struggled to take wickets, especially Tye who is wicketless at the venue across three games this season. Perth have actually only managed seven wickets from their three games at Manuka this season. Red flag?
On the flipside, Perth’s batsmen have done quite well, led by Colin Munro ($175k BAT) and Josh Inglis ($169k WKP/BAT).
Perhaps there’s a nugget or two of info in there to help you make that decision you’re teetering on, but as always we encourage you to follow your gut.