AFL Fantasy Price Watch: Merrett & Jelly lead premos to target off the bye, Petracca & Short sliding in value

The byes have started and the overall scores have started to fluctuate. Remember to make your team better over the three weeks and to walk out of the byes with a better team than you started.

Author: Dale Clohesy @dpc888

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Rookies

A couple of rookies did well, though job security could be an issue moving forward.

Jacob Wehr (AF $256k DEF, BE -9)

Coming off his bye and selection will be the all-important factors here. Does he hold his spot or make way for a recognised player, possibly Lachie Whitfield. He has looked really composed in defence and is used as an outlet kick with his usually accurate left foot. He has played well and will be a good player for the future when he gets more game time. If he plays the next three games he will make another $110k if he hits 50 in each of those games. So there is money to make but is the job security there to warrant paying $256k?

Mitch Owens (AF $266k MID, BE -8)

Another coming off his bye but with a bit more certainty about his spot in the team given his strong display last time out. You would think that his performance in his last game will hold him in good stead. I am not sure he continues to get those midfield minutes over some of the other players, but with such a low break-even, he doesnโ€™t need to score much to make some more coin and warm bodies are key in the byes. If he averages 55 for the next three games he makes another $110k in cash. Paramount at this time of the season.

Patrick Parnell (AF $212k DEF, BE 4)

The biggest issues out of the game were that he might not play again once Luke Brown comes back after H&S protocols. Parnell did look OK in defence, though it was against West Coast. The other concern was the massive corky from a heavy Greg Clark collision that saw him subbed out. With the bye this week there are probably better options. But some coaches have been looking past the weekly byes to make their team better by the end of the bye period. He would be a risky option to bring in, not knowing if he will play in Round 14. However, if and when he plays again he will make some money. If he averages 50 for his next three matches, he will make over $100k.

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Premium considerations

With Bailey Smith not using his head appropriately, he is going to be a must trade this week. Assuming he doesnโ€™t get off the two-week suspension, he wonโ€™t be playing again until Round 16 and needs to go. He is still worth a bit, so options are plenty. The known quantities in AFL Fantasy might be an option.

Zach Merrett (AF $790k MID, BE 112)

Coming off his bye. Over the last few seasons he has really stepped up in the second half of the season. Merrett also had that ankle injury at the start of the season. Maybe he is the one to rapidly increase his scoring as the season progresses. Only problem is that the Bombers are not going well, some honourable losses, some not. Can Merrett also stand out in the midfield along with Parish? Priced at $790k, he has a break-even of 112 and a big game against the Blues midfield to come. Many will hope he can go pop.

Tom Mitchell (AF $813k MID, BE 91)

The game was set up for Titch; a tight game and then the rain came down, making it a bit harder again. He pushed out a 112 and it couldโ€™ve been more. He seems back to his better scoring with a few good scores in a row, but he only has one more week before his bye. With a break-even of 91, he is still a great option going forward and his price will continue to go up.

Josh Kelly (AF $908k MID, BE 100)

Coming off his bye, Kelly could be the player you need for the second half of the season. He seems back into his midfield groove, even with the new coach. The only spanner could be Tim Taranto coming back in, but I think that more effects Harry Perryman than Kelly. He is slightly more expensive than Smith but could be the best option to possibly average over 110 for the rest of the season. With a break-even of 100, his price should go up over the next few weeks.

Other premiums to look at

Christian Petracca (AF $833k MID, BE 144)

After another lower score, his price is plummeting and he could lose another $50k even if he hits 95 in his next two games. Remembering that he has a bye in between these two games as well. With a break-even sitting above 140, his price isnโ€™t going up for a while. He got a fair bit of attention in the game against the Swans. He had nowhere near as much time and space as he had been getting in the first half of the fantasy season.

Jayden Short (AF $838k D/M, BE 128)

After having a pretty good season so far in defence, moving Short into the midfield has almost been detrimental to his scoring. He is getting possessions yes, but nowhere near as many marks, which is detracting from his scoring. With a break-even of 128, he could slide to be under $800k in a week or so even if he hits 95s.

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