SuperCoach Price Watch: Hold or trade Bailey Smith, when to get Gawn & time for SDK & McCartin to go?

We’re one SuperCoach bye round down, meaning coaches will be targeting players off the Round 12 bye and looking to move on cashed-up rookies with the Round 13 bye, but Bailey Smith has created another headache.

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Time To Go

Sam De Koning (SC $360k D/F, BE 65)

Plenty of coaches will be looking to offload the recent Rising Star nominee ahead of Geelong’s Round 13 bye. SDK’s break-even has moved up to 65, having enjoyed an excellent second surge in price built around six weeks where he averaged 77 points per game having averaged only 53 across his first five games in 2022. Realistically now is the ideal time to say thanks for your efforts and move him on. De Koning to Jacob Wehr, if he is selected by GWS, will likely be a popular move.

Patrick McCartin (SC $376k D/F, BE 52)

In a very similar boat to De Koning, having lifted his output recently prompting a major second run of cash generation. McCartin has actually got a five-game average of 85, which has been mighty handy but with Sydney’s Round 13 bye, it makes a lot of sense to move him on. If you were weighing up offloading SDK or McCartin, you’d hold the latter given his recent output and break-even as he may still help on field and reach $400k.

Robbie McComb (SC $265k F/M, BE 50)

An interesting one for coaches, with potentially more money to make, but he has a break-even of 50 with a season average of 57 and the Round 13 bye. He’ll likely hover around this price mark if his offloading him doesn’t net much, so don’t fear too much if you need to hold.

Greg Clark (SC $243k MID, BE 18)

The well-owned Eagle also has the Round 13 bye but a much lower break-even that De Koning or McComb, so coaches will likely hang on to him. He has more money to make, but competition for spots will ramp up after the bye at West Coast with Dom Sheed and Elliot Yeo set to return to the midfield after two games each in the WAFL. He may not lose his spot but his role will likely change. Something to consider.

Bailey Smith (SC $553k F/M, BE 143)

Smith drew in a lot of coaches ahead of Round 12, having just gained forward status, but he’ll be traded out ad nauseam after his brain fade led to a two-game ban for headbutting. If you’re in doubt about that, consider that Smith will not play again until Round 16 given the Dogs have the bye this week. When considering whether to hold or offload, you’ll need to weigh up how many trades you have left and if you can cope without him in the third bye round. His season-low Round 12 score of 67 likely will likely fuel to fire to dump him.

Isaac Heeney (SC $449k F/M, BE 116)

After a spectacular start to the season, with five tons in seven games, it’s all gone downhill for Heeney who hasn’t hit triple figures since Round 7. He has managed three scores in the 90s in his past four but with Sydney’s Round 13 bye and the fact he doesn’t appear to be a top-six forward, now is a good time to move him on if he gets you something. He peaked in price at $544k, so sadly he’s dropped almost $100k.

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Off The Bye

The premise of Price Watch is to look at the weekly fluctuations in value, so it doesn’t fit the bill to look into players who had the Round 12 bye thus their prices didn’t change. However, there’s absolutely no doubt they will, and should, be top Round 13 trade-in targets, given they’ll score in both Rounds 13 and 14, so we’ll flag Jack Sinclair (SC $562k D/M, BE 54), Zach Merrett (SC $520k MID, BE 75) and Sam Docherty (SC $531k DEF, BE 128) as generously priced premo upgrades, while Mitch Owens (SC $117k MID, BE -22) and Jacob Wehr (SC $123k DEF, BE -38) are the rooks to look at, pending selection.

Time To Make Plans

Max Gawn (SC $587k RUCK, BE 31)

The Dees ruckman had plummeted more than $120k in price over the previous four rounds but bounced back with a huge $35k rise after his Round 12 score of 198. Gawn is always a must-have ruckman and that looks the case in 2022, so if you don’t own him, you may need to consider him as he won’t get much cheaper, given his low break-even. The Round 14 bye obviously isn’t ideal.

Touk Miller (SC $575k MID, BE 64)

Miller dropped $3k this round but was the second best scorer for Round 12, behind Gawn, with his 167. The Suns have the Round 13 bye, so obviously hold off this week, but if you don’t own him, he needs to be in your plans and a top priority ahead of Round 14. Miller dropped in a Round 10 score of 59 to see him price slide but this is a guy with nine 100+ scores this season including six 120+. Easy decision next week.

Andy Brayshaw (SC $532k MID, BE 101)

The Dockers onballer hasn’t quite reached his dizzying early season heights but he’s very consistent, scoring 113, 100, 94 and 94 over the past four rounds. He’s also very cheap for someone so reliable. It’s unlikely you’d get him yet with a bye to come but Fremantle’s Round 13 opponents are Hawthorn, who have given up the third most points in SC this season, so he may go big and his price may start surging upwards. Get him on your radar when Freo come off their Round 14 bye.

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