AFL Fantasy Price Watch: Is it too late to get on O’Driscoll, rooks on the horizon & what to do with Grundy?

We take a look at some of the big movers in fantasy. The numbers in here are based off previous year’s data and may not be entirely correct. However, they will give you a guide as to what player’s prices rises and falls will be.

Author: Dale Clohesy @DPC888

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Plus potential break-even numbers, both high and low. A player’s price is based on a rolling five-game average for each player, so one big score or low score can affect their prices and break evens over a period of a few weeks.

Best cash cows for next week

Nathan O’Driscoll (AF $346k D/M, BE -17)

He has played well after coming on as a sub in his first game. He has lots more money to make. As his role and scoring potential are definitely there. He is getting major minutes into the wing and his team mates like his penetrating left foot kick. His biggest downside is his job security. This week he kept Tucker out of the team, but I am not sure how much longer he does that. If he stays in even for another week. He should go up another $50k if he scores a 60 or so.

Nic Martin (AF $476k F/M, BE 24)

Seems to have the job security that a lot of rookies lack. Probably because he is a mature age recruit. He looks very accomplished on field and the Bomber love giving him the ball as he seems to be an elite decision maker and so far has been going at 80% disposal efficiency, though this week he wasn’t as good with his disposal. Which generally means his teammates want the ball with him as well. A lot of coaches that don’t have players like this think they have missed the boat. Here is a player who will likely average about 70 ppg going forward. Has a low break-even of 24 and will make close to another $75k over the next three weeks. So there is still money to be made and job security seems to be a lock. Now that he has gained midfielder status as well means he becomes more flexible for fantasy coaches going forward.

Sam Hayes (AF $209k RUCK, BE 7)

Started very slow in the game with only 21 points to half time. But got another 30 points in the second half. So he might be an option. He has the job security with Scott Lycett out for months and Peter Ladhams traded, so will make some money. If he averages 45 he will still make another $85k in the next three matches. Cash cow for sure.

Malcolm Rosas (AF $276k FWD, BE -10)

Rosas has flown under the radar in his first two weeks in for the Suns. But his average of 65.5 puts him right up there as one of the cash cows to have price and potential money to be made. However, the Suns have job security issues with a lot of their fringe players. So I am not sure if he will keep his place. He has looked good as a small crumbing forward. If he plays the next three games and average 45 he will go up another $85k. Money to be made if he plays.

Hugh Dixon (AF $329k F/R, BE 0)

With Nic Naitinui going out for a few months Dixon got another game this week. However, if Oscar Allen comes back into the team, Dixon might be in trouble for his spot although West Coast have hinted they won’t use Oscar in the ruck. In the beginning Dixon was used forward and as a back-up ruck. Now that Williams has come in for the ruck, we are not sure how much longer Dixon stays in. If he does stay in, then he has money to make. If he hits 60 for the next two games he will make another $60k. Job security is his only concern.

Will Brodie (AF $641k M/F, BE 48)

Brodie has been the mid-pricer of the year so far. He has a massive average of 93.2 and was so cheap at the start of the season. So many people are concerned that he has gone up over $250k so far this year. Therefore, they have missed the boat. But have you? If he hits 80’s for the next three weeks he will still make nearly another $60k. His price is getting up there now. But at the start of the year if you could’ve picked a player that was going to get major midfield minutes, average well over 80 for $650k you would have jumped at the chance. The fact he is still averaging over 90, is even better. Inside machine. He loves the contest and is effective at his clearance work. Which is what Freo want from him.

Reef McInnes (AF $260k MID, BE 6)

Started slow in his fantasy scoring in the first few games, but, he is building into his role really well. Looks like he has an edge over a few that have tried to play the role for the Pies before him. He seems to have a good bit of job security at the moment, but that can change quickly for some rookies. If he stays in the team and hits 55 for the next three weeks, he should make close to $80k in that time.

Ben Hobbs (AF $293k MID, BE 9)

Hobbs had a great debut in a Essendon team that is struggling. He looked clean, poised and made some great strides fantasy wise and for the team. I think he should keep his spot, but a shake up is needed at the Bombers. So who knows. If he stays in and averages 60 for the next three games he plays, he will increase $115k. A great cash cow option.

On the horizon.

Greg Clark (AF $190k MID, BE 25)

Normally we don’t talk about cash cows before they play, but Clark could be the exception to that. He was on Fantasy coaches radars at the start of the season being a mature-aged rookie who seemed destined to play until he injured his shoulder late in the pre-season. Seems that he may get a game with West Coast sooner rather than later, given his good return performance in the WAFL over the weekend. Has a great inside and outside game and adds some mature grunt. Be interesting to see how he goes at the top AFL level. I think he should score well and will be one of the few rookies that lots of coaches will trade in before he plays a game. But his return may have come at the wrong time, with the Eagles getting players back now. Monitor.

Premium price drops

Brodie Grundy (AF $816k RUCK, BE 129)

What a start to the year for Grundy. Well below what expectations were and then to drop 54 on Thursday night. That means that his break even has shot up to 129. Very gettable for an in-form Brodie, however, this year he has looked a shadow of his former self. Not hitting up for the short marks and not doing as much around the ground. It is like the Collingwood coaching staff only want him as a tap ruckman and to make a contest down the line sometimes. Yes he will be cheap in 3 week’s time even if he averages 95 for the next three weeks. But can he average 95 for the next 3 weeks? I he does. He will go down another $30k. Let’s hope he can regain the form we know he is capable of.

Aaron Hall (AF $818k DEF, BE 153)

Hall had been having a good season so far. Not consistently massive scoring, but still up there with the best in the backline. Now an injury affected 50 will lower his price, when he returns. He dropped $54k this week alone and is already down $96k for the season. If he averages 95 over his first 3 weeks of being back, he will still drop another $55k. Making an option after the byes more than likely as he could be priced at $760k.

Elliot Yeo (AF $681k MID, BE 106)

In his first game back for the season, Yeo looked rusty and off the pace. He wasn’t helped by a first-quarter concussion test. He didn’t look his normal bustling, in-control self. The coach said that a lot of the players back will build into the season over the coming weeks. So expect Yeo to improve as the season continues. Yeo was under-priced at the start of the season, so he could become even greater value if he average 85 for the next few weeks. He would then be priced at about what he is. The temptation will be to get on him early, before he moves on to average probable closer to 95.

Sam Docherty (AF $854k DEF, BE 124)

Doc has had the most amazing start to the season. It showed during this game as he had a tag on for most of the match by Port. It just curtailed his free running and easy marks. If he averages 95 for the next three matches then his price will drop be about $45k. His current break even sits at 124. His story and achievements to play from round 1 this year have been remarkable. Let’s just hope he can continue his great scoring for AFL Fantasy and help the Blues.

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