The first prices rises have come and gone but even after 3 rounds, there is still value to be found as we start to get a better picture of who’s in form and who’s not and what’s sustainable.

Author: Chris Leitch

Few players – especially in the value bracket – will score the lights out every week and judging the depth of a form slump is the key to success. Is it a temporary lapse, or a terminal slump?

On the flip side, was that score one out of the box, or have we struck a vein of form?

We’ve seen players tear it up in Round 1 then tear apart since, and we’ve seen slow starters who are now starting to find their stride.

There’s value emerging as premium prices fall – but don’t get sucked in if they won’t be improving. Similarly, even if you are not making top dollar from a cash cow, you may still come out in front.

Rucks

Two of the more popular alternatives to Gawndy before Round 1 were Rowan Marshall (SC $506k RUCK) and Oscar McInerney (SC $486k RUCK), and the start hasn’t panned out as planned.

Marshall’s value was sliced $30,700 this week after scoring just 58 and he’s facing a break-even of 175, and a projected price cut of $38,200, even with a projected score of 89.

The Big O isn’t looking much better – he took a $23,500 haircut from his 57 and he will lose another $38,200 if he can’t top 75. He’s also been offered a one-game ban for Round 4.

Part of the problem at the weekend was their tap work. Hit-outs to advantage are big scorers in SuperCoach and Marshall managed just 14 hit-outs, compared to 25 in Round 1 where he scored 124 with bulk CBAs in Paddy Ryder’s absence. McInerney had just 11 against the Kangaroos.

If you can’t stomach the losses or back them to improve, Marshall’s teammate Jack Hayes (SC $187k F/R) is the value bet – a break-even of -14 means he’s plenty of growth left. But those looking for a keeper and can afford him, seek out Tim English (SC $521k RUCK) in the form of his life, he shouldn’t have much problem hitting his BE of 58.

Defenders

If you missed the boat on Mitchell Hinge (SC $233k DEF) there’s still time to get to the next pier and get on board. He went up $52,500 last week with his 91 but with a break-even of -37, he’s not done yet. Similar story with Patrick McCartin (SC $210k DEF) with a -17 break-even.

Long term, Nathan Broad (SC $445k DEF) had 11 intercept marks last week en route to 130 and his breakeven is 16. And talk about under the radar – he’s in just 500 teams but averaging 105.7. But it’s a lot to spend if you don’t think he’ll maintain the rage. Far more people will already have George Hewett (SC $453k D/M), who’s averaging 119.7, but if not, he’s also got a breakeven of just 41

Coming back in price is the likes of North Melbourne pair Jack Ziebell (SC $564k DEF, BE 150) and Aaron Hall (SC $565k DEF, BE 142) – but I’d be keeping both those lads and treat their respective Round 3 stinkers as an aberration after strong starts.Popular Bulldog Caleb Daniel (SC $483k DEF, BE 149) might be another story after scores of 66 and 71.

Midfielders

I’m loving the Patrick Cripps (SC $518k MID) revival story and his stocks are rocketing up after a price rise of $64,000. Averaging 32 touches, he will be closing in on $600,000 within weeks so get on board if you can – this week’s breakeven is 26.

The value of popular picks Stephen Coniglio (SC $338k M/F, BE -48), Will Brodie (SC $284k M/F, BE -23), Jason Horne-Francis (SC $259k M/F, BE -11) and Nick Daicos (SC $250k MID, BE 4) will expand for a few more weeks but take a look at Tom Green (SC $502k MID, BE 45). He’s in the top three mids in the comp and redefining the breakout year with scores of 164, 106 and 147.

Cash cows on the bubble include Thomson Dow (SC $198k M/F, BE -31), Brady Hough (SC $117k MID, -18) and Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (SC $162k M/D, BE 2).

There are worrying signs for Tom Mitchell (SC $580k MID, BE 176) who lost $57,800 this week and stands to lose another $38,000 if his run of scores in the 80s continues, while Swans veteran Luke Parker (SC $576k MID, BE 192) has hit the wall, backing up his 167 in Round 1 with 73 and 76.

Forwards

Playing with big Cats has been dangerous so far. Tom Hawkins’ (SC $491k FWD, BE 150) big score of 148 in Round 1 was backed up by a 33. That meant that the loss in value was just $19,300 but unless he can hit 180, he’s heading south again. Mitch Duncan (SC $540k M/F, BE 159) missed Round 1 so now’s the time to get off him or face a hefty loss.

The aforementioned English or Brodie will make fine additions to your team, as long as you already have Nic Martin (SC $102k FWD), whose breakeven is a phenomenal -124 ahead of his third game.

Of the mid-price men, Zac Butters (SC $463k FWD) messed up a lot of plans with just 58, but this week’s breakeven of 81 isn’t out of the question on the back of 114 and 136 to open the season. Luke Jackson (SC $422k F/R, BE 35) continues his meteoric rise at Melbourne, while Adam Treloar (SC $486k M/F, BE 73) is getting into stride with back-to-back tons.

Pick wisely. Good luck!