It’s the time of the season when reality sets in. You’re either making the grade or you’re coming around to the fact that this year might be a struggle.

Author: Chris Leitch @LeitchDawg

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If you’re sitting pretty in the league or pushing high up the rankings, well done.

For the rest of us – the mid-pricers haven’t quite fired, the premiums are underperforming, the rookies are not growing in value with the necessary speed for upgrades.

Making the right trades and getting maximum value from players is everything to restoring respectability into the season.

Looking for a POD (point of difference) also helps distinguish your team from the cookie cutter mould and with a little luck, propel you to a few league wins.

If you can’t get to the rolled gold premiums, let’s see what we can extract from the second tier.  

Forwards

It’s go time for Isaac Heeney (SC $535k FWD) – his breakeven is on the high side at 127, but he’s already topped it three times this season. Plus he’s back on the centre bounce bandwagon, with 11 attendances at the weekend.

It’s also becoming harder to ignore his teammate Luke Parker (SC $518k F/M). Another 33 touches against Brisbane and it’s only a score of 39 in Round 4 that has kept his price so low – a price jump of $43.5k and he’s still almost $73k below his start price.

Hold off: He’s almost ripe but you may be able to leave Tim Taranto (SC $501k F/M) on the vine for one more week, when he may slip below $500k. His breakeven of 131 is still comfortably above his projected score of 105, but he’s averaging 99 and set to be a top-six forward.

The POD: Dylan Moore (SC $495k FWD) has been a great story for Hawthorn this season. One of the frontrunners for underrated player of the year, his break even is 52 but few have cottoned on yet. Owned by just 1% of teams but one of seven forward averaging 100+ after last week’s 147.

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Midfielders

You might recall Ollie Wines (SC $508k MID). Useful player, won a Brownlow Medal last year. Hasn’t quite set the world on fire in 2022 but take away the heart scare that left him with a 53, and he’s averaging 103.6. Attended the most CBAs for the Power against St Kilda, a very gettable breakeven of 92 and $104k below starting price.

Another on the rise is Patrick Cripps (SC $527k MID). Few have ever rebounded from a hammie as superbly as the Blues gun, collecting 33 and 35 touches against Fremantle and North Melbourne respectively. Kicking goals every week and needs just 29 to breakeven.

Touk Miller (SC $592k MID) has dipped just below $600k but he’s unlikely to stay there for long, needing just 85 to get growing again. It’s the high ceiling that makes him really attractive – three scores above 137, including a 36 disposal 160 against Collingwood.

Hold off: I’m a big fan of Andy Brayshaw (SC $581k MID), a great user of the footy and an attacking player. He did chalk up 189 earlier in the year and while his BE is 157 heading into the North Melbourne clash is possible, you can probably afford a week’s grace before snapping him up for cheaper. Probably.

The POD: You can rarely go wrong with Dayne Zorko (SC $516k D/M). High-ish BE of 107 but great kick-to-handball ratio and he’s a chance to fill his boots this week against the hapless West Coast. Owned by only 1%.

Rucks

Hard to pick a winner this year, value wise. Matt Flynn (SC $482k RUCK) had his colours lowered against Adelaide with a 58, but he’s topped the ton in three of the previous four games, while Sean Darcy (SC $568k RUCK) should be back this week if he passes a concussion test. Almost $75k off his starting price, he does have a 115 BE but he surpassed that mark 10 times last season.

The POD: While his peers have dropped away through injury and form, Rhys Stanley (SC $453k RUCK, BE 35) has quietly sneaked into the top four for total points scored among ruckmen. Doesn’t have the high ceiling of others but effective and reliable for his 1320 owners.

Defenders

Like many of his teammates, Jordan Ridley (SC $480.2k DEF, BE 81) has struggled somewhat this year but he remains one of the Bombers best intercept defenders. About $56k off his starting price, he is still averaging six marks and 15 kicks a game.

Daniel Rich (SC $510k DEF, BE 101) is another who is statistically a fraction off the pace compared to last season, but the Brisbane veteran averages 18 kicks a game and more than 568m gained each week, comfortably inside the league’s top 10.

Not yet: Much to the disappointment of those who forked out top dollar before Round 1, Jake Lloyd (SC $496k DEF) has not dominated for the Swans in the same way as seasons past and it appears his ceiling is much lower. It means he’s almost no chance of hitting his 133 breakeven and he could be available for as little as $470 next round if you can hang tight.

The POD: Jordan Dawson (SC $516k D/M, BE 125) sits just outside the top 10 defenders with just two tons but he’s also channeled his inner Michael Slater with scores of 94, 97, 98 and 99. Another with an excellent kick-to-handball ratio, he is marking and rebounding from the Crows defence but only has ownership of 4.9%.

Become a HB subscriber for $4.95 per month or $19.95 for the AFL season. Exclusive content, CBA stats, Kick-in stats, Twitter chats, prize money in our Fantasy/SuperCoach groups. Register here.