AFL Fantasy Price Watch: Clark, McComb & Carroll headline cash cows, Lloyd & Brayshaw bleeding money

We take a look at some of the big movers in fantasy. The numbers in here are based off previous year’s data and may not be entirely correct. However, they will give you a guide as to what player’s prices rises and falls will be.

Author: Dale Clohesy @DPC888

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Best cash cows for next week

Robbie McComb (AF $265k MID, BE -18)

After a solid outing week 1 as a rookie, he stepped it up in Round 2 putting up an 83. Now I wouldn’t expect that score every week as it was against Essendon and he had two goals, but with a negative break-even of -18 he will make you close to $140k over the next three weeks if he stays in the team and hits 60 each week. I think he should stay in the team. The big score helps significantly lower the break-even which helps ramps up the cash generation.

Greg Clark (AF $250k MID, BE -31)

We wrote about him a few weeks ago here as one to look out for. Just as everyone was pumping his tyres in pre-season before his shoulder injury. Must be over that shoulder issues entirely now after two weeks in the WAFL as well. Six tackles and 110 on debut, wow. He will be the must-have of the week and those that went early and put him on the ground must have been laughing this week. Also means that they probably didn’t have the carnage in other lines and could actually do the downgrade they wanted. He went up $60k and with a -31 BE this week if he averages 75 for the next three weeks, he makes $210k in that’s time. Cash cow personified. The only spanner that may come in might be that he came in for Elliot Yeo, who was out with concussion. If Yeo comes straight back in for Clarke go out. I think that he stays in, but it might be on a slightly different roll. There are others that should be moved out of the team before Clark.

Sam Hayes (AF $299k RUCK, BE 3)

Still getting it done. Yes, he has a low break-even and I know a lot have jumped on. But if he scores like the 43 he did this round, then that is a concern. The game up there in Cairns was like a trying to mark a cake of soap. It was so slippery, so it’s not going to be like that every day. But it also showed he can score a 40. It might be a slower burn than people were expecting.

Jack Carroll (AF $234k MID, BE -16)

Job security is the big issue. He came into the team for Hewett who was out with a sore lower leg. So if Hewett is fit does Carroll move straight back out. He looked pretty good. Needs to clean up his disposal when having shots at goal, but he was influential in good parts of the ground. I think they can make room for him, but he may not be playing the same amount of inside time.

Cooper Hamilton (AF $218k M/F, BE -2)

Fantasy is crying out for a defender rookie to play and be worth picking. Cooper Hamilton played in defence for the GWS on the weekend, but he is listed at a mid/ fwd. So that doesn’t help. He played well too.

Premium price drops

Andrew Gaff (AF $780k MID, BE 135)

Was used as the medical subs after coming back from injury. He got on the ground and put up a respectable 47. This will hurt his price a lot. His break-even is now 135 and he dropped $37k this week. If he averages 90 for the next three weeks, he should drop another $50k. Making Gaff a temptation at about Round 10 at just over $700k, wowee. With all of the Eagles coming back and then getting their mojo back, it might be a nice pick up.

Mitch Duncan (AF $720k M/F, BE 114)

Mitch hasn’t had the best season yet. Coming off an injury riddled pre-season. His elite ball usage is so good to watch, but he just isn’t getting the possessions anymore. Becoming more of an impact player. He has hit 90 once this year so far, just once. Amazing since many had him penciled in as the potential number one forward. Everything other score he has had is in the 80s and then one super-high 70 and then this 69 this round. He has dropped $121k so far from his massive starting price. With a break-even over 110. It will continue to drop. Now I hope Duncan gets back to his best. But it may not happen.

Jake Lloyd (AF $743k DEF, BE 122)

After two weeks of low 70 scores, Lloyd is in precarious position. His break-even is now 122 and if he scores 85 for the next three weeks he will still drop plenty more, meaning by Round 10 you could pick up Lloyd for below $700k. Incredible. Now, this season has also shown that he isn’t scoring anywhere near as prolific as he has in the past for to the Swans different game style. Maybe he isn’t a top six defender anymore.

Now there are other premium players who have had some lower scores than normal recently. However, as they are generally not below 80, they don’t really raise a flag. Yes, the player will likely drop a few dollars in response, but we aren’t looking at the $100k that some other players are going down.

Others of relevance with massive break-evens and the potential to drop a bit in price, it won’t be $150k, but might be $40k, even closer to $75k of there are two bad scores in there.

Andrew Brayshaw (AF $950k MID, BE 146)

Tim Taranto (AF $844k M/F, BE 142)

Ben Keays (AF $940k MID, BE 137)

Travis Boak (AF $895k MID, BE 137)

Now every single one of these players can easily eclipse that break-even score, that’s why they are amazing Fantasy players and why their price is so high in the first place. If they don’t, we might be able to get them a little cheaper.

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