The Buzz: Why you hold your premos, the Matt Rowell dilemma & the DPP picks to consider
This week on The Buzz, we discuss if trading your premiums would have been worth it and can the same ideas be applied to an underperforming Brodie Grundy?
What has happened to Matt Rowell and is there any chance of him bouncing back, we’ll investigate his numbers to find out and finally with 49 new DPPs added who are the most relevant picks that you should be adding to your shortlist.
Why you should be holding your premiums
A lot of talk has gone around about whether to trade an underperforming Brodie Grundy (AF $816k SC $555k RUCK) and to an extent the same conversations were placed on an injured Patrick Cripps (AF $803k SC $525k MID) last week. For readers who missed that, I was talking about how we should be holding our premiums to benefit in the long run, but we continue to see a large ownership change in these players. So, I had a look at some of the “underperforming premiums” people had prematurely traded out to see whether there was any benefit to this. Unfortunately, I couldn’t find the stats for AFL Fantasy, but the same message still applies.
From the table I’ve excluded players who were injured, but those premiums who were considered “out of form”, showed their ability and instantly bounced back. Even though we had question marks over the form of someone like Max Gawn (AF $874k SC $640k RUCK), those who did the trade to Tim English (AF $837k SC $573k R/F) back at the start of Round 3 would have a net loss of 21 points and one of their 35 trades. While people will try to justify saying they were able to upgrade with the extra cash. That would mean you are further using more trades to justify this 21-point loss.
So, should you be trading Brodie Grundy though? Absolutely not unless you want to stall your plans to upgrade. While it is tempting to pick up the rookie priced ruckman in Brayden Preuss (AF $467k SC $205k RUCK) and Sam Hayes (AF $209k SC $124k RUCK) , ultimately it’s going to cost you 2 or 3 extra trades to get one of them and then upgrade that rookie ruckman into a premium again. Grundy also is a bit of an Anzac Day specialist with his last 3 games on Anzac Day resulting in 153,151 and 134.
Sam Draper isn’t that great of a ruckman and did concede 121 points to a slightly underdone Sean Darcy, don’t be fooled that you must trade him out just because he had a horrific performance against the Lions who don’t generally concede a lot of points to ruckman anyways.
*BTW I better not see anyone trading Tim English after he was announced injured with a hamstring.
Matt Rowell analysis
Four weeks ago, we thought the best of Matt Rowell (AF $575k SC $402k MID) had returned when he pumped out a massive 117/157 (AF/SC), but since then he’s fallen back into that 2021 shadow where he’s not finding the footy enough nor is he able to get himself involved in the contest against the best midfielders.
While we gave him a pass on the 2021 season after he was essentially playing half injured, the start of the 2022 season has potentially been a mirage and that statistically he was never as good as we thought he could have been. Let’s take a closer look at his numbers in 2020 and how they compare this season.
We can see that Round 1 was a complete standout being able to find the footy and win the ball on the ground a lot more but take into consideration that he was essentially playing against half a WAFL team and that his performance was an over estimation of what it really would be because since then between Rounds 2 to 5 he’s been in the red at finding the footy.
People were quick to point out that “he should be unleashed” instead of “tagging” opposition best midfielders however I don’t think that is the case with Rowell as he’s rather going head-to-head against the opposing midfielders, unfortunately as seen in rounds 2,4 and 5 when he played up against the likes of Christian Petracca, Jack Steele, and Patrick Cripps for a quarter. He couldn’t beat them in that battle and thus scored poorly. His one saving grace against the GWS Giants was his ability to be within the contest and saw him rack up a career high 13 tackles which contributed heavily to his score.
Does this make him a must-trade though? While the next five or so weeks don’t look pretty in that they play a lot of top-quality teams, unless you have other priorities, he’s still technically scoring better than a rookie player and his value is probably going to hover around this price point. But if you don’t have any injuries to deal with and have all the necessary rookies, then upgrade someone more reliable as he needs to find way more of the footy or if he doesn’t have the ball tackle a whole bunch to rack up points.
There were 49 new DPPs added to SuperCoach for the first time, and it has created a few nice POD options to consider, below are some picks that should be highly touted on your radar now that they have this extra position attached to them. I will be avoiding the defenders and forwards that get midfield status because you would naturally have them in those positions but now you just have a bit more flexibility.
Scott Pendlebury (AF $704k SC $536k D/M)
Pendles for the first time has been given DPP status and who would have thought that he would have reinvented himself on the halfback flank as well as playing part time midfield. What makes him an even more tantalising option is that on the weekend he managed to rack up an impressive 81% CBA appearance even with the addition of De Goey and Adams back into the line-up.
At the start of the year, he was only playing around 30% mid time with most of it being played at halfback but with the inclusion of Maynard in round 3, Pendles split became 50/50 like what Jack Crisp’s was like. This is a very big blessing, and we should consider bringing him in as we don’t get many players who can average 110+ in the backline.
You might notice that I didn’t include Dayne Zorko (AF $790k SC $520k D/M) even though he’s received the same DPP status but that’s because he’s still carrying an Achilles/ankle issue from the pre-season, and you don’t want him to break down considering he’s already finished the game on the pine in two of five games this season.
Luke Parker (AF $747k SC $484k M/F)
It is a bit of a throwback because for those playing Supercoach in 2014, Luke Parker was one of our biggest stars as a Mid/Fwd option breaking out to average 108.5. So, when I saw this, it was a bit of a surprise.
Parker is no longer playing a majority midfield role with the emergence of a lot of Sydney young guns and while you might think that it could be detrimental to his scoring, he’s never a huge accumulator of the footy rather he’s best footy comes from a 25 disposal, two-goal performance with a lot of contested footy. While we do consider him to be a bit of a yo-yo player as he would constantly average 105+ and then dip back to sub 100 the year after. He will easily be a top 10 forward just based on his current scoring, sure you might get the odd stinker in there, but his ceiling is that high that he can pull off multiple 150+ scores to make up for that. He will soon bottom out in price so definitely get on him before he becomes too expensive again.
Tom Liberatore (AF $719k SC $522k M/F)
Due to the Dogs stacked midfield someone had to miss out on those midfield minutes and unfortunately this year it’s been Libba to miss out. While he has scored solidly this year with two tons (SC) and a few scores of around 80. He’s not getting as much of the pill as previous years. But with this new forward status he may not need to have as much to be relevant again.
On the weekend Bontempelli was pushed out as a permanent forward, I don’t see that being a permanent fixture in the bulldogs’ team and Libba will just have to deal with playing these limited midfield minutes. Will this impact his scoring? Yes, it will so don’t expect 100+ average but a 95+ is achievable especially if one or two injuries occur.
Patrick Lipinski (AF $665k SC $434k MID)
He completely flew under the radar for everyone this year as he copped an ankle injury in the pre-season game, but Lipinski has been one of the bargain finds for the Pies and fellow fantasy coaches who took a chance on him were rewarded as he’s averaging 83.8/99.6 (AF/SC).
The extra forward status for him does give a lot of flexibility and becomes relevant for the forward line as a potential keeper. Although the big worry is that he didn’t see a single minute of inside midfield time on the weekend which could have been part of Collingwood’s strategy to have Pendles go head-to-head with Neale. While it isn’t necessary to jump on him now, if his importance in that Collingwood midfield does increase then he could be one we need to consider.