The Buzz: Round 11 Burning Questions – Who concedes the most, bargain buys & byes

Welcome back to the Buzz, this week saw coaches fly up in their respected rankings thanks to some massive scores from the likes of Oliver, Bontempelli, Macrae and Mitchell.

Former top 300 SuperCoach finisher & HB scribe Ethan Lee

Coaches would have especially loved the Oliver 155(AF)/204 (SC), which has got me thinking what teams are giving away monster scores and where can we pencil in potential captain options. I’ll also delve into some value picks and finally answer some of your questions from twitter.

*This was written before the Hawthorn vs Gold Coast game was postponed.

Captaincy Options for the future

Clayton Oliver (AF $821k SC $652k MID) 155/204 on the weekend was one of the few monster scores produced it was even more impressive given that last year he produced a double ton against Adelaide also.

I want to investigate which fixtures you can lock your star players as captaincy options and consider which games you might want to avoid them. To do this, I went back through every match and recorded every AF and SC score.

Scores over 110 were recorded in AF just because their scoring system was slightly lower whilst I only looked at scores over 120 for SuperCoach as it is generally scaled higher. The results of this are below but what do they mean?

Scores against in 2021 AFL Fantasy and SuperCoach respectively

Well, if you are looking for big scores in AF, then maybe you might need to consider captaining players who play against Collingwood, Gold Coast and St Kilda as they have conceded the most scores over 110+.

Looking towards the future only two teams will face all three of the Pies, Suns and Saints in the run home and they are Freo and Brisbane. So, if you are potentially considering trading in some players over the bye periods it may be worth looking towards Freo and Brisbane players who have a high ceiling, the likes of Andrew Brayshaw, Lachie Neale (when he comes back from injury) and Jarryd Lyons all could go huge with their soft run of fixtures additionally you possibly will be able to slap the C/VC on them for an increased score in those weeks.

In terms of SuperCoach, there is more of a spread in terms of scores conceded, the top three of North, Essendon and Hawthorn have conceded heaps of 150+ scores compared to the rest of the competition whilst St Kilda is up there mainly due to them conceding lots of 120+ scores but don’t tend to concede as many 150+.

Again, reviewing the fixtures there are four teams who play all of North, Essendon and Hawthorn and they are GWS, Richmond, Bulldogs and Crows. Especially over this next bye period the likes of Josh Kelly, Dustin Martin, Marcus Bontempelli/Jackson Macrae and Rory Laird will all prove to be important player to make sure to have in your team given their high ceiling.

If we looked at the other end of the spectrum to see what teams to avoid captaining our players in either format, then the trend seems to pick up Sydney and Geelong as teams to avoid when choosing a captain/vice-captain for the week.


Bargain Buys

Like every other week I want to look for some players who have bottomed out in price due to injury or role change. This week is especially great for bargain selections given we are fast approaching the bye periods and may require more warm bodies to play on the field thus culling some secure rookies may not be a great idea. Nevertheless, the options below are good value for money picks which will not set you back too much.

Lachie Whitfield (AF $750k SC $499k DEF) BE: 117 (AF) / 107 (SC)

After suffering a horrific injury in the preseason, he has returned his familiar role of a rebounding halfback flanker. However, he is still getting used to the new pace of the game and that has been seen by his questionable use of the ball, but the good news is he is able to find the footy plenty just which is a good sign. Currently sitting at a breakeven of 117/107 and given he will have his bye next week you might want to wait a week, or you could jump on now. That will completely depend on your current bye structure. But as mentioned above, GWS do play a lot of the easier opponents in their run home and being a much-proven premium selection, he might be that point of difference you need in the back half of the year.

Adam Cerra (AF $576k SC $408k MID) BE: 94 (AF) / 54 (SC)

An ankle injury in Round 5 set back a potential breakout season for the fourth year superstar. Set to be out of contract at the end of the year he played at a superstar level for 3 of the first 4 games with an outlier of 66(AF) /56 (SC) in Round 5 where the dockers got obliterated by the Blues. Since his return he is delivered an average of 87.5 (AF)/ 95(SC) and is looking to continue to build on this momentum. It must be noted his score is better appreciated in SC than AF, given he gets rewarded for his fantastic ball use rather than his ability to accumulate the pill. Priced at $576k (AF)/$408k (SC) he looks to be a bargain buy given he can very well push towards being a 105 average in SC especially and given some coaches may need to search for some value picks, Cerra remains one of the best midfield selections you can get now.

Twitter Questions

"Loving the articles, Is Poulter too expensive now? Paying up the extra for job ‘security’. Got any Moneyball picks for this weekend? P.S I went with Newman last week" @Timothy_J13

Appreciate the love for the articles, Caleb Poulter is at a stage where it's probably not worth trading him in, he has currently made $137k (AF) and $111k (SC). While he does have great job security and pretty good scoring potential as seen with his 108 on the weekend. Trading him in from a SuperCoach perspective it's probably not worth it given he does not have that much more cash to make however in AF, there’s can be some value in that but spending more on a rookie will be detrimental to your upgrades, so keep that in mind.

In terms of some “moneyball picks” I would look to the bargain buys I had listed above but some names that I have not mentioned could be a Darcy Moore (AF $511k SC $426k DEF) who since returning to a more familiar defensive role has averaged 101.6, he probably doesn’t keep this up on a regular basis but with the ball down Collingwood’s back 50 a lot he tends to rack up plenty of marks and kicks.

"Heeney, Dusty or Daicos. Josh’s got the job security, and hes getting some good CBA numbers, Dustys got a high ceiling but been pretty flat when hes off & Heeneys as injury prone as it gets but loves the uncontested balls." @itsvJLW

I can definitely recommend both Dusty Martin and Isaac Heeney but I can’t say the same for Josh Daicos. While he does get CBA appearances it doesn’t necessarily translate to high points scoring potential, maybe the one positive thing that he has going for him is that he is more than unlikely to get attention from taggers but that won’t matter too much if you aren’t getting the pill as much as other players. For me it’s a pass on him

As for Heeney, playing up forward for Sydney as a lead-up forward has proven in the past to be decent for his scoring as he managed to average 95 in those seasons. Currently that sort of average would easily make him a top 10 forward while yes he is injury prone, Sydney do seem to be trying to nurse him through the season as John Longmire came out last week to say he doesn’t train much early in the week. I would not expect him to play every game from now on but his is the cheapest of the lot and presents the biggest value.

Dusty on the other hand is our proven forward premo who is pretty much bottomed out. Yes, in the past he has been prone to an odd stinker in there, but he makes up for it with some 120+ scores, this is reflective of his scoring since 2013 basically being an 100 average from then on. He is an extremely durable player only missing seven games since his debut 11 years ago (This is actually insane). While you could say he has been flat, you could describe that of Richmond as well, but if you also consider their final 12 games they will face: Adelaide, Essendon, St Kilda, Gold Coast, Collingwood, North, Hawthorn, that looks tasty for some big Dusty scores.

"For the players like Flynn, Idun Kozzie who have the round 12 bye sitting on my bench, if they are active and keep playing do I need to get rid of them? They are not priority at the moment for me, I am looking to get rid of players that are on the field with a round 12 bye." @AdrianN48364518

Before trading them hastily, I would first consider your full bye structure first and see if you have any problems not being able to field a full 18 players. That way, if you need some warm bodies throughout the byes these guys will be great options as they already have good JS and will just fill the roll of another rookie scorer.

The only one I would maybe consider trading is Flynn and this is due to GWS having decent ruck stock from nowhere, but mainly him being traded comes down to will he play in that Round 14 bye where many coaches have both Gawn and Grundy who have the bye that week. Mumford is still the number 1 ruckman at the Giants.

If you have a ruck that doesn’t share the same bye week, first of all fix that because Gawndy are comfortably averaging 17 more points than the other ruckman but also you might want to trade Flynn then given he is almost reaching is price ceiling.

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