AFL Fantasy Price Watch: Preuss finally arrives & Macrae, Titch, Touk & Marshall on the slide
We take a look at some of the big movers in AFL Fantasy. The projected numbers in here are based off previous year’s data and may not be entirely correct so treat them as a guideline for coming rounds.
Author: Dale Clohesy @DPC888
We’ll also look at potential break-even numbers, both high and low. A player’s price is based on a rolling five-game average for each player, so one big score or low score can affect their prices and break evens over a period of a few weeks.
Best cash generating players over the next few weeks
Nick Martin (AF $348k FWD, avg 100, BE -31)
The fall back to a score of 71 was forecast for Martin, but it was still enough for some massive cash generation. His role was the same as the first week, the ball just didn’t find its way into his hands as much. He still had great disposal on the outside and I think that the Bombers will continue to want him in the team. Martin had a great score of 71 in Round 3 and went up in price by another $82k. If he averages 70 for the next three rounds, his price will go up by nearly $150k. Amazing cash generation and will be one of the last few upgraded on your field later in the year.
Tristan Xerri (AF $414k FWD, avg 77.3, BE 0)
Xerri taking the number one ruck role has made a lot of Fantasy coaches put him in their team after his 92 in Round 2. He backed that up with a 79 this week, more than enough to help his price go up by $60k. He is still the number one ruck and should continue to score pretty well. North were absolutely beaten on the scoreboard and around the ground. North aren’t going to be beaten by 100 points every week. His teammates weren’t looking for him as much this week, compared to the previous week. Even if he averages 60 for the next three weeks, he will still make another $80k. One of the main reasons that a lot of coaches have him, is that come the first DPP change (after Round 5), Xerri will gain ruck status and maybe he could be swapped to the bench. However, a lot of coaches have him on field at the moment.
Patrick Naish (AF $441k M/F, avg 80.7, BE 1)
If Naish can stay in the team, and let’s say average 65, he could make another $90k. The big question will be, can he stay in the team with the troops returning for West Coast and what will his role be if he is still in the team. He has looked good so far, big bodied, and uses the ball well. No CBAs for Naish, but he is getting enough ball on the outside and his teammates are looking for him, trusting his disposal and nous.
Nick Daicos (AF $457k MID, avg 88, BE 2)
It shows that if you continue to play well and score points, your break-even will stay low for a while. Daicos has continued to do better than a lot of people expected. He reads the play so well and the Pies look for him around the ground. His disposal is usually very assured and trustworthy. This all for a first year player in the AFL, really is good to watch. He even kicked his first AFL goal this week to help him to 89 points. Daicos could still have a break-even of maybe 12 still in three weeks’ time and in that time if he averages even 65, he will make another $130k. He should get a lot more than an average of 65.
Braydon Preuss (AF $411k RUC, avg 108, BE 7)
It finally happened! After over a year of Preuss potentially being in Fantasy coaches’ teams for GWS, it came to fruition. He looked like the big, rough, ruckman that we have come to expect from GWS. He did everything, 11 kicks, five handpasses, five marks, five tackles, 34 hit outs and three frees for. Unfortunately he had three frees against as well. If he can stay number one ruck, which he should, then the scoring should continue. If he averages 75 over the next three weeks, and it should be at least that, then he will go up in price by well over $110k in that time.
Jake Bowey (AF $475k DEF, avg 80.3, BE 11)
Bowey really looks to have cemented his place in the side, though it will be interesting to see when Christan Salem comes back what Bowey’s role might be. For the next few weeks it should continue to be at least 70, and make at least another $90k in that time. His disposal is what has so many Fantasy coaches interested, plus the low price and scoring potential. He could be a great stepping stone to a premium in your defensive line.
There are others that have a low break-even, but they are not scoring consistently big scores. They will still generate cash, but not as quickly or as much as the players above.
H. Dixon (AF $226k F/R, avg 45.5, BE 1)
C. Durdin (AF $268k FWD, avg 49.3, BE 2)
J. Mead (AF $243k MID, avg 42, BE 5)
H. Ralphsmith (AF $310k M/F, avg 50.7, BE 8)
If you have any of these players in your team already they will still make you cash, but take a bit longer. There are lots more that are in the same boat as those listed above as well.
Players dropping in price
Jack Macrae (AF $931k MID, avg 99.3, BE 152)
Macrae underperformed this week and as a result dropped $36k, making his break-even high this week at a lofty 152. It’s very plausible for Macrae for sure, but we haven’t seen it this year yet. His role in the last quarter versus the Swans will have a few Fantasy coaches worried, he hardly attended a centre bounce and only had one handball and a free against. When the game was on the line, they put Tom Liberatore in the middle instead and Macrae sulked on a wing. Hopefully not a sign of things to come for the rest of the season. He should still score well for the season, though if he averages 100 for the next three weeks, he could drop nearly another $60k. Making him about $870k, wow. That would be a good buy in a few weeks.
Touk Miller (AF $981k MID, avg 105, BE 156)
A low score for Touk this week with the Giants running a double tag on him for most of the game. It was a very tight tag in the first half. With Lachie Ash and Matt de Boer swapping on Miller doing the job, much to the disappointment of those who owned him. Anyone who thinks that Touk cannot make his break-even this week, hasn’t seen him play in the last year. But, let’s say he doesn’t, and he averages 100 for the next three rounds, he will drop in price by another $75k.
Tom Mitchell (AF $890k MID, avg 91.3, BE 143)
Mitchell’s scores have been underwhelming so far this year. He hasn’t gone over the ton and he isn’t playing his pure midfield role. Maybe there really was something in that groin issue in the pre-season. He is not playing his normal inside midfield beast role, whereby we shouldn’t expect the same big scores. He has dropped $79k already this year, and most coaches thought he was value. He still has a massive break-even of 143. Very gettable for Mitchell we know. If Mitchell can average 100 for the next three rounds, he still will drop another $60k. Meaning that if he starts playing the role he had before in a few weeks you could pick him up for about $830k. I would have to see a role change first before getting him in.
Rowan Marshall (AF $729k RUCK, avg 79.3, BE 118)
After two weeks of scores in the 60s Marshall owners are jumping off left right and centre. Rightly so, last week it was Jack Hayes who took the ruck duties, this week it was Paddy Ryder. Now Marshall still attended about a third of the CBAs, but his score didn’t reflect anywhere near that. The low score means that this week he dropped $26k and with a break-even of 118 this week, if he averages 80 for the next three weeks, he will go down another $40k. That means that he could be $689k in a few weeks. Obviously there would have to be a role change or injury for the other talls for Marshall to become Fantasy relevant again soon.