AFL Fantasy Price Watch: Xerri looms large, Brodie impresses & is it time to trade out Gawn?
In our weekly AFL Fantasy Price Watch, we take a look at some of the big movers. The projected numbers in here are based off previous year’s data and may not be entirely correct.
Author: Dale Clohesy @DPC888
However, they will give you a guide as to what player’s prices rises and falls will be. Plus potential break-even numbers, both high and low. A player’s price is based on a rolling five-game average for each player, so one big score or low score can affect their prices and break evens over a period of a few weeks.
Started round 1 under $300k players. We call them Cash Cows.
Josh Ward (AF $323k MID)
Ward’s break-out game this week really puts him on the radar for Fantasy coaches, though he was probably already in a lot of teams, on the bench, after his 41 in the first round. The 85 points this week will definitely put his price rises (up $39k for Round 2) and break-even at a great level for many Fantasy coaches. He was everywhere around the ground and looked good doing it. His break-even is down to 3 and over the next three rounds if he averages 60s he can go up over $100k. That means after Round 5 he could be priced at well over $420k.
Connor MacDonald (AF $287k MID)
Ward’s Hawthorn counterpart in MacDonald also had a great game with a 66 in week 2 after a 47 in week 1. His price should be going up significantly as well, due to the lower starting price. His break-even for his next game is 4, and if he can average 55 for the next three games his price should nearly go up $100k as well. His job security looks pretty good still, meaning that after Round 5 his price could be closer to $400k.
Tristan Xerri (AF $354k FWD)
Xerri really had a fantastic game. Named as the number one ruck, his team-mates were looking for him around the ground and he had five marks to make up his impressive score of 92 fantasy points. With a break-even of -5 for the next match there is money and points to be had. If he averages 60 for the next three games, he should go up well over $110k making him one of the early cash cows this season. He seems to be the future ruck at North, even though at the moment he is only a forward in fantasy. Word of caution, in both Rounds 1 and 2, the opposition’s number one ruck has been ruled out with COVID-19; Ben McEvoy and then Nic Naitanui.
Well-owned trio Nick Daicos (AF $390k MID), Josh Rachele (AF $382k M/F) and Jack Hayes (AF $319k F/R) are all on track to continue to earn big money this week and continue their low break-evens after more than reasonable numbers this week. Not the highs they had the previous week, but still very solid rookie scores. Even though I didn’t write about Jason Horne-Francis (AF $351k MID) last week, it wasn’t like he had a poor Fantasy game. It’s just it wasn’t the 100s scored by the others. His score this week of 78, aided by more mid-time after injuries to Tarryn Thomas and Luke Davies-Uniacke, to go with his 61 last week means that his break-even is just 5 this week and if he can average 60s for the next three weeks, he will go up $100k. That puts his overall price at over $450k after week 5.
Cheap Mid-Pricers with low break-evens after two rounds:
I didn’t write about this category of player last week, as one week of data for mid-pricers isn’t always cut and dry as to who you could target. Two weeks of data and we can start to see who might be going to break-out. Mid-pricers are a hard lot to use, as you want the cash generation, but also the good scores.
Will Brodie (AF $467k M/F)
His 100 in the last game of the round was again from low time on ground (61%). He looked very good in and around the ball, not Andy Brayshaw good, but good. With scores of 77 and 109, Brodie has a breakeven of 5 and if he averages 70s for the next three weeks while Nat Fyfe is out, he can make another $100k.
Jack Ginnivan (AF $389k FWD)
Ginnivan’s 87 this week after being given the Go-Pro the first week after his 59 means that he has a breakeven of just 10 heading into next week. So if he can continue his place in the side and his scoring of 60s for the next few rounds, he can make another $80k for the next three rounds. Very impressive for a mid-pricer.
Luke Foley (AF $450k DEF)
Foley was the talk of the town after his fantastic score of 100 week 1, He backed that up with a 74 this week. He has played well, not only for the team, but also for Fantasy in that time. He should stay in the team for a bit, we hope (please no more Eagles into protocols!). He has a break-even of just 14 for this week. If he scores 70s for the next three weeks he can expect to go up at least another $85k.
Premium price drops
It shows how a week is long time in Fantasy. Last week I wrote about Jack Crisp (-$8k), Jayden Short (+$13k) and Dayne Zorko (-$11k) having a bad score and potentially being a bargain in a few weeks’ time. However, they all had massive scores close to their high break-evens this week and either only lost a little or gained a bit a money. Most premiums are premiums for a reason.
Max Gawn (AF $855k RUCK)
Two weeks in a row for Gawn. After his two weeks of 79, his consistency is through the roof, however, his scoring is not. Clear role change and yes it can change back, but it hasn’t in the first few weeks. His price will continue to drop. His breakeven this week is a gettable 145, though if he hits 100 for the next three weeks, Gawn will still drop another $35k. He has already lost $56k after the first two rounds this season.
Sean Darcy (AF $750k RUCK)
Another ruck in Darcy also had a poor week. Yes I know he got injured, but that just means he is going to get cheaper still. When he returns, could be next week, based on how he went last season, but I don’t know. If he averages 80 for the three weeks in a row that he returns, he will drop another $75k, meaning that he will be priced at under $700k. Almost too irresistible.
Jy Simpkin (AF $794k MID)
Simpkin only scored a 52 this week having copped a tag, after a super impressive 116 in the first week. Even after his midfield brigade of LDU and Thomas went down, it wasn’t enough to lift Simpkin up to even higher levels after his fantastic week 1. He has a breakeven of 125, which is not unreachable of course. If he averages 95 for the next 3 rounds, he will potentially lose another $40k over that time.
Patrick Dangerfield (AF $726 MID)
Danger had a super impressive Round 1 score of 108, and coaches who picked him for a comeback season were everywhere. This week after just 50, things are looking a bit more dire. Now his breakeven is a paltry 110. I say paltry, as Danger could eclipse that, we have seen his excellent Fantasy scores in the past. If Danger averages 90 over the next three weeks, he will drop another $20k, after dropping $18k this week. He could be priced at under $700k in a few weeks, who knows, he’s erratic.
Taylor Adams (AF $780k MID)
Adams’ score of 57 this week after only 71 the week before is quite perplexing, but his TOG was down due to a migraine which he played through. He apparently ripped up pre-season, he looks fit-as-a-fiddle and yet cannot get back to his Fantasy best. He has a massive breakeven of 145 this week, and even if he can average 90’s for the next 3 weeks, he will still drop at least another $55k in that timeframe.
Andrew McGrath (AF $716k MID)
Usually I try to talk about players that have with Fantasy relevance and high ownership. McGrath is going to come into more relevance in the next few weeks we think as Zach Merrett is out for 6-8 weeks and McGrath could find himself with more mid time. So he could be a good pick up now after his 57 this week and a price drop of $11k. His break-even is at 101, and he could get that playing full-time mid in the next few weeks.