The Buzz: R9 Burning Questions – Rookies to get, fallen premos & your mailbag questions
Welcome back to The Buzz, where I cover some of the most difficult questions that AFL Fantasy and SuperCoach owners may have for the week. We saw a lot of high scores this week thanks to the improvements of the rookies.
This week I am here to dissect the best rookie moving forward for this week, how should we approach our “failed” premium selections, talk about some bargain buys and answers some of your weekly questions.
Rookie selections to pick up
A lot of coaches this week will be tempted to pull a double downgrade in preparation for the byes and given the variety of rookie selections we have, it’s not the worst move in the world. Obviously because of the different pricing systems between the two formats (AFL Fantasy and SuperCoach), it will be difficult to pick rookies for Fantasy but I’ll do my best to cater for both.
Caleb Poulter (AF $254k, SC $117k, MID/FWD) BE: 4(AF), -63 (SC)
Drafted as a tall midfielder/forward he has currently spent his craft off the half back line and was pushed up onto the wing when Nathan Murphy went off with concussion, he posses a booming left foot and a gem of a mullet. He of all the rookies will likely possess the best scoring potential given he plays a fantasy friendly role as well as posses the want to kick more than handball. Job security should not be too much of an issue given Collingwood will want to play their kids and have multiple key outs that should see him get plenty of games under his belt. Absolutely slap him into your side this round.
Riley Collier-Dawkins (AF $232k, SC $123k, MID) BE: -10 (AF), -45 (SC)
Another big, bodied midfielder who already has had some years in the system, his game suits the SuperCoach model of the game given his want to get within the contest and tackle a lot. His centre bounce appearances dropped significantly with the return of Dusty to the team, however with injuries to Shai Bolton and Shane Edwards for the next few weeks it opens opportunities for him or any other midfielder to take. A lot of coaches will also be considering Ryan Byrnes (AF $240k SC $123k MID) for their team; however, I rate RCD’sscoring ability and job security much higher than Byrnes which will help in the long run.
Matthew Owies (AF $123k, SC $223k FWD) BE: -1 (AF), -42 (SC)
The former basketballer made his debut last year in Round 16 and returned to the team in Round 7 this year. He operates as a small forward in the Blues' forward 50 and so far, has done a reasonable job kicking 5 goals in his 2 games as well as averaging 50 odd points in both formats. The reason I do not mind him as a selection is because Carlton like to play an open game so a small forward with a mature body may have a secure role within that young Carlton mix. Especially with so few rookies left in the forward line, he may be a safe choice especially if you need a downgrade option and already have some of the players listed above.
Like always I love to get on a bargain buy and especially given we have such few rookies making ridiculous amount of cash we may have to settle on some cheaper players than look to the number 1 scorer in each line. Remember what counts who is will score the most points from now till the end of the season, rather than what is already on the board.
Jordan Ridley (AF $614k, SC $488k DEF) BE: 127 (AF), 119 (SC)
This one is quite an obvious one given he has almost bottomed out as a premium selection after his concussion affected. Thirty-one in Round 5, he returned to score 87 and 84. However last week it was noted that he played a lot of his game matched up on Toby Greene trying to lock him up. Does this concern me if you were planning to bring him in? Slightly, while he still has room to drop in price you can’t go wrong with someone who averaged 120+ (SC) in his first 4 and has had a slight role change since. His best football is where he can intercept mark as well as use his elite kicking skills and he showed that last year as well as the start of this year. If you could pick him up look to, given we are unlikely to see someone of his potential be this cheap for a while.
Hugh Greenwood (AF $720k, SC $538k MID) BE: 110 (AF), 86 (SC)
I already mentioned in the past 2 weeks that the likes of Josh Kelly and Tom Mitchellwere bargains and they still are but if you are looking at a point of difference then hear me out. The dude loves to tackle, he loves to win contested footy. He is part of an engine room which is missing a few cogs, he can push forward and impact the scoreboard. So far in 2021 that has resulted in a couple of monster scores where he has produced 130+ scores but also had a few stinkers where he mustered out sub-80’s. Overall, if you are looking for someone who is slightly underpriced but a massive point of difference for your league matchups he could genuinely sneak into that top 15 bracket. Reminds me of a Matt Priddis type where he could average 110+ but a massive pod throughout the season.
Aaron Hall (AF $419k, SC $633k, *DEF/FWD AF, FWD SC) BE: 38(AF), 30 (SC)
David Noble has also thrown him down back to use his speed and ball use throughout backline and this has resulted in his last 3 of his last 4 games picking up the ball 30+ times. He is still relatively cheap and for his current output thanks to an injury affected 35 (AF), 37(SC) as well as a sub affected 11 (AF), 6 (SC). If you are wanting a cheap option for your forward line, then definitely consider jumping on him however in true Hallfashion there is no guarantee he won’t be dropped due to poor form or any sort of injury may affect him.
Following on from last week, I’m here to answer some questions related to bye structures, rookie carnage and how effective is Kayne Turner at tagging.
“What premo bye structure are you aiming for (eg R12=5, R13=5, R14=7), and how much variation from this plan will you be comfortable with?" @BriceMitchell
Your bye premium structure should be pretty much set in stone by now, but you can be flexible with how you attack it. In theory you would want the most premiums to miss R12 as from then on you can trade in players who then will have their bye. However rather than counting the premiums you are missing per round, see how many you are missing per line.
Lots of coaches will be missing Gawn+Grundy for Round 14 and will be relying on Flynn to cover for that week. Some coaches will also feel the heat of Round 14 in the defence with the likes of Ryan, May, Lloyd, Mills and Laird missing but we will also have a few rookies to cover those scores. At the end of the day if you have 18 playing on field in each week you, it should not matter too much. But certainly, if you end up with multiple donuts in a single line then I would try and target upgrades that will allow for some better balance.
“For the many coaches with two donuts on the bench in defence and now with Murphy out is it worth trading out Highmore? Saints have a tough couple games coming up and there could be lots of changes but news is Frawley and Geary could be coming in. When do we cut the cord? ” @BISHOPSBALLS
Worst comes to worst, I think copping a donut would be better in the long run. While it might seem good to jump on a defensive rookie that will get a game or two, it does not seem worthwhile to burn a trade to cover 40 points for one week and miss out on potential cash generation. Especially given that the current set of rookies who are on the bubble are likely to be dropped from their team. Adding to this Murphy seems like he has a good job security and a solid role playing on the wing for the pies and was unlucky to cop a concussion. If you are playing SuperCoach we will need every single one of these trades till seasons end, remember we still have 15 rounds left for the year.
*This was written before Highmore was selected for Friday's game
“Will Kayne Turner get the run with role on Titch this week” @Bowen_Carr
It is very likely that he will be given that role, however I wouldn’t be too worried much about this given that since Round 4 when he first tagged, he’s held Laird to 14 possessions [finished on 90 (AF), 105 (SC)] in a half, Selwood to 18 touches [69 (AF), 88 (SC)], Brayshaw to 31 touches [121 (AF), 112 (SC)], Oliver to 25 touches [94 (AF), 116 (SC)] and Sidebottom [70 (AF), 92 (SC)]. So it's not like he’s got a good track record of completely shutting down his opponent, I’m sure Titch will still win plenty of footy which shouldn’t affect his scoring too much. At worst, his 35+ touches maybe only 30 touches.