Expert Panel: Rowell/Danger dilemmas? Do you flinch & trade ahead of Round 2?
Round 1 is always seductive with breakouts and rookies appearing out of nowhere and premiums letting you know. So do you flinch or do you just take it in your stride? Or is that being stubborn?
It’s tough to know. The situation also varies from SuperCoach to AFL Fantasy given the availability of trades differs in both games.
So Honeyball assembled an Expert Panel of two top 10 finishers in SuperCoach and AFL Fantasy and the Round 1 2021 SuperCoach winner to discuss how to manage Round 2.
The experts are 2021 SuperCoach Round 1 winner Julien, who is a 37-year-old Adelaide-based engineer who coaches the ‘Crazy Frogs’.
We’ve also got George Triantafillou, 43, who finished third in SuperCoach last year. He’s Melbourne-based, works in risk and insurance and his team name is ‘The Phat Side’.
And finally from the AFL Fantasy world, 37-year-old Melbourne-based programmer/tech lead Nick Millar whose side ‘Not Here For A Haircut Footy Club’ sat atop the standings last year and finished fifth overall.
HB: Do you flinch on your strategy based on Round 1 performances or is it too soon?
Julien (SC): No I am not changing anything. I couldn't do better winning this round. I am happy with my current strategy: heavy in defence, balanced in midfield, Gawn and Flynn in the ruck and light in forward. My three mid-pricers performed really well (Clark, Taranto and Ziebell).
George (SC): I think it's too soon. Round 1 usually throws up some odd scores. Have another free look in Round 2 before making any knee jerk reactions.
Nick (AF): The short answer is not really. I paid up for the big two rucks, and whilst it was a disappointing round I won't be throwing them out just yet (also I've got Danger and Rowell so I don't have a choice). One round just simply isn't enough data to make a valid conclusion on something as structural as a big-money ruck strategy. I'm looking at getting a three-week sample before I get rid of the big rucks. Having said that, I'm not captaining a ruck again, perhaps ever. Thanks Calvin.
That's a strategy flinch, though, flinching on individual premiums in favour of others, sure I'd totally do that. I dropped Lloyd after Round 2 last year, and Titch after Round 3. I've no time for chumps. If I had Gaff or De Goey, they'd be De Going in De Bin.
HB: From a SuperCoach perspective, is it worth getting any of the rookies who impressed who you didn't have or do you wait until after Round 2 given prices?
George (SC): Wait. I don't have James Jordon, and although his job security is escalating as Melbourne's midfield is falling apart, I want to have another look before I commit to correcting a poor rookie to him.
Julien (SC): No, wait and see one more game, potential rookie connection Round 3. I believe I picked all the good rookies so far, just need to field the best ones. Benched rookies are scoring very poorly 20-40 points, so I will keep an eye on new rookies coming up like Heath Chapman, Ely Smith or Finn Macrae.
HB: This question is different from an AFL Fantasy point of view as prices are already moving?
Nick (AF): Only if you've nothing better to do;
1 - Fix injuries and suspensions
2 - Cut crap premiums
3 - Fix rooks
It's a one-week sample on rookies, you can't afford to waste a trade on rooks that are unproven, two or three weeks in maybe, but even then I'd look to jump to a performing rookie from an underperforming mid-price or premium and pocket the coin rather than just changing rooks.
I once picked up Ben Ronke after his great debut (seven goals) in my Keeper League, and he never did anything again ever. Everyone laughed, I'm pretty sure they're still laughing. Life lesson right there.
HB: Do you have Danger and/or Rowell? If so, what will you do? If not, will you trade this week?
Nick (AF): I do have both Danger and Rowell. I'm going to cut them both you really can't afford to not. I'll probably keep things simple, back in the structure, and look for like-for-like replacements. Or chase a little value and mix up the positions just a touch.
Danger goes for Dusty, no question. I talked Dusty up in my excellent DT TALK scratch match review and then second-guessed myself, don't do that, it's bad. I'm getting back on my own bandwagon and riding the dusty train all the way to victory (I think that's where the train goes, hopefully, I don't fall asleep and end up at the depot again). The Rowell one is either Caldwell, Stephenson or Sholl. Undecided, but they're all good, can't go wrong.
George (SC): I have Danger unfortunately. Three weeks is too long to hold at this stage of the season as there are too many rookies on the field already. So, he will become Dusty this week. No other pressing issues, but I'll have another look at Jordon for a possible Round 3 corrective trade.
Julien (SC): I was fortunate to avoid the carnage with Danger and Rowell, so I will watch people burning their trades! If I had them, I would definitely trade Rowell and hold Danger (trade are so precious!) guarantee top 6 forward. No trade for me this week.
HB: Not sure I believe you, Julien! But thanks all for your time and insights. Go well!