The impact of rain in SuperCoach BBL: Which players to pick & avoid for tonight’s rain-affected final

Sydney weather forecasts create a looming threat that tonight’s BBL|10 Final will be rain-affected, meaning less overs, which will obviously have SuperCoach BBL implications.

Of course, there is a reserve day this year if the Final is washed out, but officials will do everything they can to get a game in, even if five overs for each side, so prepare for a rain-affected Round 17 match.

Rain has been a perennial cause of uncertainty for SuperCoaches all season, as a largely unpredictable variable and that’s the annoying case again for Saturday night.

So Honeyball thought it’d be worthwhile analysing the rain-affected games in BBL|10 and what’s that’s meant from a SuperCoach BBL to help you cater your team towards that.

Firstly, it’s worth noting there’s only been five rain-affected matches where we’ve lost overs this season, including one no-result and four games decided by Duckworth-Lewis.

In total, 64.2 overs have been lost across the 60 matches played to date, which isn’t too bad.

Obviously in those games, depending on how many overs lost, overall scores have been lower generally. But that’s irrelevant as there’s only one game to chose from this round.

The key point is around which players are more likely to score, based on their role and the bat flip, which will help you finalise your team closer to lockout.

16 Dec 2020 – Perth Scorchers 6/158 (17 overs) v Melbourne Stars 1/10 (1.1 overs)

With the Stars batting innings basically abandoned, naturally the Stars batsmen missed out in this game along with the Scorchers bowlers.

We won’t get a no-result on Saturday night, due to the implementation of a reserve day, meaning the game would be re-played on Sunday with all scores wiped, so this scenario is largely irrelevant.

1 Jan 2021 – Melbourne Renegades 6/166 (17 overs) v Sydney Thunder 2/117 (12 overs)

The Gades got most of their batting innings in, meaning points weren’t too affected on that side, but the impact was for the Thunder’s middle order bats who missed out in their 12-over run chase, with only two wickets falling.

Picking number fives or sixes who only bat, particularly for the side batting second, like Olly Davies in a rain-affected game is super risky. Always note the bat flip.

7 Jan 2021 – Brisbane Heat 3/115 (10 overs) v Melbourne Stars 5/111 (10 overs)

The rain in this game was foreseeable and forced the bat flip to be delayed, meaning it was played as a 10-over-a-side match which created good equality in terms of scores among the sides.

However, the shortened format denied bowlers the opportunity to get an economy rate bonus which requires three overs to be bowled minimum. In a 10-over game, bowlers could only bowl two maximum. If this scenario arises tonight, you may opt for less bowlers in your line-up.

Middle-order bats were also negatively impacted with James Bazley and Jimmy Peirson not batting, while Seb Gotch came out at seven, only facing three balls.

13 Jan 2021 – Sydney Thunder 6/166 (20 overs) v Sydney Sixers 5/132 (12.4 overs)

The Thunder got their entire batting innings in before rain intervened during the Sixers’ batting innings. This meant there was 44 balls worth of opportunity to get points missed for the Thunder bowlers and Sixers batsmen.

None of the Thunder bowlers were able to get the requisite three overs to get the economy rate bonus, while the impending rain (which was on the radar) arguably meant James Vince and Daniel Hughes took a more risky approach to their innings before falling cheaply.

4 Feb 2021 – Perth Scorchers 1/189 (18.1 overs) v Brisbane Heat 9/150 (18 overs)

Not many overs were lost in Thursday’s Challenger final, but Scorchers batsmen Josh Inglis and Colin Munro both missed out on a hit, which arguably had more to do with the success of their openers and makeshift number three Mitch Marsh than the rain.

But if Perth had two more overs of their batting innings, it’s likely more risks would’ve been taken, thus a wicket falling and either getting a bat. So the conclusion is the same as before, take caution with middle-order bats.

The rain’s impact on the Heat’s run chase being shortened to 18 overs was negligible, with the size of the chase having more effect.

Conclusions

Middle-order batsmen are super risky. Also if games get shortened, note some bowlers will miss out on economy rate bonus points. And always be cautious around the bat flip, as there’s no guarantees the second innings will get played in its entirety, so favour those who’s discipline occurs earlier in the match.

Thus the risks include the likes of Dan Christian (no guarantee to bowl and bats low – but could get elevated if they need fast runs), Jordan Silk, Ashton Turner, Mitch Marsh (unless he gets elevated again), Aaron Hardie and Moises Henriques (hasn’t bowled in BBL|10).

The ones to chase are the front-liners, the opening batsmen (especially from the side batting first) and opening bowlers (especially from the side bowling first) as they are guaranteed to play a role. First drops are good too.

And, of course, pray for no rain to avoid all of this!

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