Everybody PANIC! The two difficult byes are here as we scramble to ensure all our teams field 18-20+ players to avoid those not so tasty doughnuts!
Although, it’s important to have your teams end goal in mind rather than just smashing that short term dopamine hit from immediate premium flipping and bye relief trading.
Billy Dowling – $123k (MID/FWD) – 6%
On the basis you need more evidence to pick this guy other than the fact his name is Billy, I guess I can oblige… I went early on him instead of going for Will Dawson which sounds crazy but there was merit behind the madness. Dowling’s junior numbers were some of the best we have ever seen and it included multiple scores over 200, including one 260+. Absolutely absurd stuff. He has quickly translated this into quality SANFL numbers where he is averaging 24 touches, 6 tackles, 5 clearances and 107 SuperCoach points per game. Billy Dowling’s first and last ¼’s were really promising on the weekend, but as his half forward/wing role suggests, he will be prone to drifting in and out of games like he did in the middle two ¼’s. He had 17 touches, 2 tackles, 1 goal and an impressive 9 marks in total but it was his ball use that let a 90+ score slip here. Let’s be honest, Adelaide are a rabble, they have no promising young talent in that midfield, there’s only so long they can persist with Berry and Schoenberg. So to me, I can see Dowling getting a run in there at some point down the line this year. In terms of immediate job security, I think Adelaide would be crazy to not persist with him for the rest of the year as finals are now off the table and this should be a prime chance to get games into a young talent that deserved his debut much earlier. Nicks was full of praise for him in the post-game press conference despite the loss and I’m confident he should be your #1 downgrade target this week. BUY.
Errol Gulden – $560k (MID) – 22%
He was my budget, point of difference option in this article last week and BOY did he deliver. He was back to his devastating best with 37 touches, 28 effective, 736 metres gained, 5 clearances, 7 inside I50’s, 5 tackles, 3 scores assists, 15 score involvements and 1 goal for 158 points. It’s going to take a lot of will power for people not to swap out their Miller’s, Rowell’s or Oliver’s for this guy and the much need premium bye relief that comes with it. His price is definitely still unders for what you could be buying and the switch from these previously mentioned shouldn’t be too difficult. I think the CBA numbers for Errol are somewhat misleading, they aren’t great at all sure, but his time around the ball at stoppage, at least from the eye test, is definitely more positive than his 25% of CBA’s showed. The issue with a winger is at times they can get lost and fade in and out of games, so the low floor is still a high potential for a guy like Errol. From Round 14 onwards this time last year he went on a tear where he averaged over 120 points per game. Why couldn’t he do that again? If you are in a position where you can get a team with a decent 23rd option on your bench even with this sideways bye relief trade, then go for it, Gulden should be at the top of your list for it. TEMPTING.
Nathan Kreuger – $123k (RUC/FWD) – 2%
This one is a real feel-good story. It’s hard to find too many players that have had tougher injury luck in their AFL career than Kreugs. Every time he looks to have gotten his chance another injury strikes. The important part here is his role is filling a hole the Pies have desperately needed to fill for some time now. This means he potentially has some decent job security even when the cavalry slowly starts to come back at the Pies. He is extremely versatile and can plug any tall role required. Let’s be honest, he won’t be a great scorer but he gets a North matchup this week where he could easily bang out another 70+ for us in what is probably the only week you’ll ever field him. He comes with handy DPP as well, where you could even swing him into the ruck line this week to cover your Max Gawn as well. His bye isn’t ideal, I assume a lot of teams would prefer a rookie that plays next week instead but this doesn’t seem like a luxury we have. If you need two downgrades or you went early on Dowling early last week, I see no issues with taking on Kreuger’s injury history as the second-best rookie downgrade this week. VIABLE.
Jordan Clark – $580k (DEF) – 5%
This pick is quite hard to get a read on and he seems to be gaining a lot of traction in people’s SuperCoach trade plans this week. The main issue for me is his price, this is an absolute top end price you’d usually pay for a defender upgrade (Ryan aside as he breaks all rules) so for this price you’d want a sure thing. But can anyone confidently say Clark is that? I couldn’t… From Rounds 1-9, he averaged 97 points per game. From rounds 10-12 he has an average of 137.3 which has spiked his season average up to a much more respectable 107 points per game. So, to take this pick on, you’d need to find out what has changed over the last 3 weeks that will continue for the rest of the season. I can’t see anything. The main thing I found was that all 3 of his matchups in this period were a ‘+’ matchup for half backs and designated kickers at their club, which included the Saints who concede the most to this position. Its simple, but he won’t continue to have these matchups all season… The other downside with Clark is if a team was to tag anyone at Fremantle its going to Clark. Last year Serong got it at times, but this has failed to continue this season. Clark is the man now and if tagged, he has a sub 70 score written all over him. I get it, this would be a fun point of difference pick with very high upside as you capitalise on the Fremantle chip chip game plan, but he’s not for me. PASS.
Dayne Zorko – $593k (MID/FWD) – 28%
I won’t get into the nitty gritty of Dayne Zorko as a pick, I’ve spoken about him on numerous occasions. When fit, he is a clear Top 4 forward, but the ‘when fit ‘is the clear gamble you are taking. He is relevant this week as non-owners have a big decision to make. But wait Scout, his breakeven is 187, why on earth would you ever consider getting him this week? Why? The matchup… He has the most SuperCoach friendly matchup for his role you could imagine in the St Kilda football club. The way the Saints sit back, opposition have no choice but to take uncontested mark after uncontested mark as they switch the ball from side to side trying to break down the Saints flooded defence. Do you need proof? Gold Coast just had 127 UNCONTESTED marks on the weekend, 127! Sexton took 16, Flanders took 13, Uwland had 13, Collins had 12, Jeffrey had 12 and Ballard had 10, this is just their backline! The game this week is also at the Gabba where Dayne Zorko averages 144.5 from 4 attempts while in the half back role this year. So not only is this projected score ridiculous for a forward in SuperCoach, but he is genuinely my #1 VC pick in what is a tough week for captains with many popular picks missing… So non owners must consider if the 35K+ loss (If he only goes 110 for example) is worth the gamble on the 150+ upside as your VC? I’m so tempted. JUICY.
Luke Ryan – $666k (DEF) – 32%
This is it. It’s breaking every rule in the book. The Peroxide Prince cannot be ignored any longer. If you don’t down him, it’s time to join the dark side. I almost never pay over 600k for a premium upgrade and here I am advocating paying $660k for a defender… Looking at his breakeven of 135 you naturally think “Oh, next week you should get him cheaper”, then you look at his 130 average next to his name and the reality of a cheaper Ryan goes out the window very quickly. His run home for a defender is actually really solid. There are a few teams in there that do run with roles against defenders, but Jordan Clark has quickly emerged as a Luke Ryan foil and will take up all this attention. The most sprinting he does every game is to beat his fellow teammates to the square to take every kick out. He intercepts, he is involved in every one of Freo’s 100 switches per game, his kicking is elite so he just doesn’t miss targets and whenever it’s in doubt he just bombs it 60 metres down the line which is always rated as effective by Champion Data… It’s the perfect SuperCoach recipe. You just must jump on; your hand is forced. MUST BUY.
Will Day – $571 (MID) – 1%
Here is my point of difference of the week! He has taken a little while to get going after his foot fracture in the pre-season, but Will Day is now starting to hit his straps as he is the main catalyst to the Hawks resurgence. He has a 4 round average of 125 SuperCoach while many other popular midfielders are struggling and the Hawks have the 3rd easiest fixture on the run home. His next 3 games either side of his bye are Richmond, West and Geelong and for an inside midfielder, the draw does not get much better than that. Unbelievably, over the last 4 weeks, Will Day is the #1 midfielder in the competition when it comes to total fantasy stats/points accumulated from stoppages. Over the same period of time, he has versed 4 of the Top 5 hardest transition matchups which has limited his output away from stoppage. Imagine when he can put together his huge stoppage work, with some added outside game from this week onwards where his fixture opens up! It starts this week with Richmond who rank 18th for both conceding points to opposition in transition as well as to inside midfielders. The obvious issues are his price and his bye. Opting out of a Clayton Oliver or a Touk Miller to him will come at quite a hefty cost, and you could get Gulden for 10k cheaper without a bye to come. The bye will keep him unique for sure and the upside in this pick is enormous. POD.
Jack Hutchinson and Saad El-Hawli – $102k
The byes are very team dependent, and this is a prime example. The two popular downgrades this week are Kreuger and Dowling who both have the Round 15 bye. If you are like me, you’d prefer a rookie to play next week rather than this week if possible. The issue? There is no clear-cut option that we can guarantee will be there next week. If we could get a rookie from one of the teams who have had their bye already this week, that would solve everything, although for now, prior to teams, these two are your best options. Jack Hutchinson didn’t exactly impress on debut in what should’ve been a decent matchup for him in North at home. He only had 4 touches, 1 mark, 3 tackles and 1 behind for his 40 SuperCoach points… The other one is Saad El-Hawli, this is even riskier as he hasn’t debuted yet, but the upside in this pick is much higher than Hutchinson. In the VFL he was best on the ground in their win with 4 goals 1 behind, 27 touches, 8 marks and 3 clearances before suffering a minor ankle injury with 15 mins remaining. He was seen hobbling slightly on the ground after the game and with Duursma also due back after the bye, it’ll be a tough team to crack into. WATCHLIST.
