Scoring well in AFL Fantasy is highly determined by the role a player finds themselves in. Inside midfielders, half-back distributors and midfield rotators are typically what we look for when choosing our best picks.
Is there a way we can measure a player’s success in role? And can we predict how a player will score in 2024, given a particular role they might excel at?
I’ve been looking at stoppage points – how many Fantasy points each player scores from stoppage situations, and transition points – how many they score from outside ball movement. Breaking down a player’s scoring by the source allows unique insight into how their role impacts their scoring.
To assess a player’s role impact, I’m using their centre bounce attendance (CBA) numbers combined with their stoppage and transition point splits. I’ve come up with two ratings to measure role success. Midfield impact is the correlation between CBA numbers and stoppage scoring.
We want to pick players that not only get CBAs, but also can score well as a midfielder. Dual position rating measures if the player changes their score build to suit their role. For example, if a half-back moved to the midfield, you would expect fewer transition points but an uptick in stoppage points.
Hayden Young
Midfield impact: +75%, dual-position rating: +57%
Young is an incredibly popular pick, and for good reason. A season average of 89.2 has room for improvement, but coaches are keen on the move to the midfield. Over the last five rounds in 2023, Young played as a full-time midfielder, averaging 97.8 points per game, with 55 of those from stoppages.
The midfield impact rating was +75% so coaches can be confident he can score. Young has a +57% dual-position rating, highlighting that he changed how he sources his points – a decrease in outside ball but a massive increase in stoppage points.
Josh Rachele
Midfield impact: +65%, dual-position rating: -15%
Rachele started 2023 incredibly well, and he was scoring highly with midfield time. He averaged 91.5 points over the first 6 rounds, 36 points from stoppages and 55 from transition. His midfield impact rating of 65% reflects how important CBAs are to his scoring.
However, Rachele’s midfield role was phased out and he returned to the forward line. A dual-position rating of -15% highlights that he doesn’t score well in a secondary role, and he averaged just 64 for the rest of the season. If Rachele plays more midfield than he did last season, he is guaranteed to be a great pick as a FWD.
Ollie Wines
Midfield impact: +48%, dual-position rating: -9%
Pushed out of the midfield, Wines only attended 50% of CBAs in 2023. The midfield impact on his scoring was +48%, which is low compared to others on this list. The main reason for his drop-off is transition scoring – down from 54 points per game in 2022 to just 40 per game in 2023.
The result is a dual-position rating of -9%; it confirms that his CBA role is very important for his ability to score around the ground. With the optimal R13 bye, he should be a high consideration if he continues to shine as a midfielder in preseason.
Tom Stewart
Midfield impact: +48%, dual-position rating: +6%
Stewart’s name has been popular in fantasy circles this preseason, with Geelong hinting at the possibility of throwing him into the midfield in 2024. We saw some CBA games last year, so what do we expect for his role impact in 2024? A midfield impact rating of 48% tells us that Stewart did score moderately well for stoppage points with CBAs – midfield time is a good thing.
However, the dual-position rating of +6% tells us that his role didn’t affect his ability to get involved in transition. This is incredibly promising for his prospects in 2024, some midfield time can improve his average without affecting how he already scores his points. For example, Stewart scored 33 stoppage points from 25.8% CBAs in R17, despite a 7 stoppage point average in the other games.
Nat Fyfe
Midfield impact: +81%, dual-position rating: +1%
He’s become a lot more popular over the last few weeks, and it is based on rumours that Fyfe will play more midfield time than he did in 2023. Fyfe has a high midfield impact rating – proving that if he gets CBAs in 2024, he will score well at stoppages.
A 0% dual position rating says that he is perfectly balanced, his transition points are not affected by his role. Fantasy coaches should look for his impact at stoppages over the preseason to assess whether he is worthwhile to start.
Jack Sinclair
Midfield impact: +57%, dual-position rating: +57%
As an elite half-back, sometimes we don’t wish players like Sinclair to play as an inside midfielder. In fact, Sinclair averaged 98 in matches with 50%+ CBAs, and 103 with under 50% CBAs. He also averaged 110.3 in his 12 lowest CBA games. So why would you pick him? Sinclair had a midfield impact of +57% and a dual-position rating of +57%. This tells us that if Sinclair plays midfield, he scores high at stoppages but low in transition.
If he plays defence, he scores high in transition but low at stoppages. This flexibility highlights his ability to score in different ways, and potentially opens him up to higher scoring should he hold a consistent role.
Jack Macrae
Midfield impact: +11%, dual-position rating: -4%
Macrae’s role is often the first reason coaches suggest for large drop-offs over the last two seasons. However, there is no correlation between Macrae’s CBAs and his stoppage/transition splits. His scoring is random, with only a 11% correlation between his CBAs and stoppage points. The same can be said for his transition scoring, a dual-position rating of -4% is close to zero.
There is no indication that Macrae’s role is important for his scoring – and this idea holds over multiple seasons. In a year where you may select him as a FWD by default, ensure you are considering the real reasons for his scoring decline.
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