The Buzz: Do you need to hold trades? Short, Crisp, Cripps, weighing up the under-performing premos

Last week’s shock news that Luke Jackson was injured for the week threw many coaches into disarray and begs the question should we be holding onto our trades? Or just send them where you see fit.

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Furthermore, if you are spending them, are the current crop of underperforming premiums worth jumping off. Finally, those who had traded in Aaron Hall last week after his monster 156 before going down injured, who are some alternatives if you’re going to move him on? 

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Do I really need to hold trades?

It’s an age-old debate really, spend them all and make sure you have a team with no weaknesses or hold your trades just in case. I’ve gone and looked back in the past few years and reviewed if there were any premiums that missed multiple games from the past five seasons and found that post-Round 17 at least 4.2 “premium” players got injured and that considers the shortened 2020 season where only 18 games were played. So, does that necessarily mean that you need to hold onto at least 4+ trades?

Not really if you were to look at the names I’ve listed above, the chances are you won’t have every single name on that list. But you should be cautious to expect maybe one or two injuries, but I highly doubt you’ll have every player that will get injured. At the end of the day, it’s all about luck and the chances that you’ll end up with every single player that forces a trade is extremely unlikely. But it does raise the point of trying to get a decent D7/M9/R3/F7 to cover your players if this happens. We’ve seen what someone like Nick Daicos can provide to your team as he’s gone and scored his highest score of the season to back up an insane three-week patch. So, keep upgrading your team where possible but don’t go crazy and spend them all unless you have appropriate cover. 

Under-performing premiums

As of late, we have had some underperforming premiums that may be tiring out or have had a role change, but can you afford to trade them out or is their potential ceiling too high?  

Jayden Short (AF $789k SC $482k D/M)

Moves into the midfield are generally good for players scoring potential and we all thought that this would be the case when Short was introduced into that midfield mix where he scored a 123/152 (AF/SC) in a Round 7 win against the Eagles. After averaging 106.8/105.5 in the first six games in his patented half-back role he’s had a bit of a decline and averaged 94/99.5 playing a midfield/forward role in that line up. In his last 3 weeks, he’s failed to ton up in SC and has been a concern for owners who have seen a recently traded out Daicos score three 105+ scores in the last four weeks in both formats.

Now currently there’s no indication that he’ll move back to the half-back line even with Nick Vlastuin in and out of the team. While I don’t think he’ll hit the potential that we all thought he would reach with him rebounding the ball off the half-back line, his floor isn’t too bad that will help him score at least 85+. If you have trades to spare you might consider going him to a Bailey Dale (AF $756k SC $545k DEF) or even hold him for a few weeks to jump onto Tom Stewart (AF $815k SC $562k DEF)

Patrick Cripps (AF $777k SC $520k MID)

The first eight games of the year saw Cripps enter God mode as he went on a huge streak of scoring 110+/119+ in non-injury-affected games (he did his hamstring in Round 4 against the Suns). This saw him average 112.4/120, which to be fair was most likely an over-performance and he soon fell down to earth when he was forced to be a secondary ruckman for the Blues.

From Rounds 9 to 16 he’s only tonned up twice in that seven-game period in both formats. For sure a worrying concern because he isn’t having the same impact as he was earlier in the year when he was a pure goal-kicking midfielder, as he’s been goalless in his last three. His role hasn’t changed either as he’s still a pure centre-bounce midfielder with stints up forward, so why has he been scoring less then? My guess would be that between Rounds 1-8 he was roaming free but in the recent weeks, he’s rather been going head-to-head with the opposition’s best midfielders. Also, with guys like Sam Walsh returning to form he’s had to have less influence on the game as the workload is shared. Does that mean he’s a trade though? Again, similar situation as Short, if you’re missing one of the top midfielders (Miller, Laird, Mills etc) then by all means go out and pick them up because while Cripps does carry that high ceiling, his floor seems to be a bit lower than most premium mids and at this stage, we want to be pushing for as many points as possible. But like I mentioned before if you’re running on like two trades left then hold put because it’s not worth copping doughnuts later in the year for a few extra points per week. 

Jack Crisp (AF $807k SC $520k D/M)

Crisp’s name hasn’t been on the trade block as much as Cripps or Short but in the past two weeks, he’s been much further down on impact as he only found the pill 18 and 19 times respectively. In all games where he’s had 24 touches, he’s gone on to score a SC ton in all but two games, so it is concerning when most of his scoring comes from his ability to find the footy. His role has been consistent as he’s still a regular inside midfielder and finds himself as either on a wing or starting forward and pushing into the midfield. While this year we would consider Crisp as one of the most consistent players this season as he’s scored 10 tons in 15 games in both formats, he’s had a few games where he’s been down on output. But I wouldn’t stress too much about it because he’s kept the same role, looking at their next three fixtures which are North, Adelaide and Essendon it is primed for him to feast on those bottom five teams. This one I would be 100% keeping but hey if it is your weakest player and you can afford a premium upgrade to a Jordan Dawson (AF $879k SC $626k D/M) and co, then go for it. But, don’t look too hard at the last 2 weeks because he’ll definitely bounce back. Remember back in round 1 when everyone wanted to trade him look at him now, he’s the 7th highest scoring defender. 

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Aaron Hall replacements

If you were one of those unfortunate souls that brought in Aaron Hall (AF $703k SC $496k Def) for Tom Stewart last week then you’ll probably be forced into another trade as he’s out for potentially another fortnight with a quad injury. While at this stage of the year you’re probably not holding a lot of spare cash in the bank, who are some potential upgrades, sideways and downgrades you can make for him?

Upgrade: Bailey Dale (AF $756k SC $546k DEF)

It will cost you about $50k to go from Hall to Dale but if you can afford it, then it’s simply a must-do. With Caleb Daniel set to be out of the team for 2-3 weeks, Dale will become the number one option rebounding from the Bulldogs’ defence. He’ll also seize a monopoly over the kick-ins in the next few weeks. While we don’t have that much data to suggest he’ll improve. He’s simply been a slept-on premium as he’s currently rocking a low score of 74/86 with 10 tons to his name in SC and five in AF. With Daniel out last week, his 117/134 against the Lions further highlights that he can elevate himself to another level and for $756k/$550k there’s not many better options considering he’s already the eighth/fifth highest scoring defender this year (AF/SC). 

Sideways: Isaac Cumming (AF $805k SC $473k DEF)

There are a lot of options I like at this price ranging from Nick Daicos (AF $689k SC $482k D/M) to Lachie Whitfield (AF $779k SC $477k D/M), but my pick of the lot would have to be Whitfield’s teammate Cumming. Cumming has elevated his game to the next level after essentially being handed the keys to the Giants’ rebounding. He started the year very well with four/six tons in his first 11 games. But after having a bit of a stinker against the Dogs where he only scored 81/45 his price absolutely crashed in SC and he’s now available at just $473k. You can make the argument that with Harry Himmelberg in that back six now, he’s not the number one distributor and that is partially true but in games where Himmelberg has been back there he’s still scored 71, 117, 115, 45, 97 and 100 in SC. Take out the one stinker and it’s close to a 100 average. He’s still taking kick ins sharing that role with Himmelberg so that isn’t a huge concern. 

Downgrade: Keidean Coleman (AF $619k SC $438k D/F)

We were all hyped with Coleman’s move to the halfback line in the pre-season however a serious hamstring injury derailed those plans for us and since then he’s flown under the radar. But after Round 9 he’s averaged 83.6/93.1 with one/two tons to his name. Furthermore, with Daniel Rich (AF $735k SC $538k DEF) out of the side, he will be responsible for a lot of the kick-in duties and distribution from the half-back flank. Even though he’ll probably score fewer points than if you were too sideways or upgrade to another premium. His DPP will be extremely handy in the back half of the year, and you can use that extra cash on another forced trade or for a player that may be underperforming.

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