AFL Fantasy Price Watch: Martin & Hayes lead the cash cows, Crisp & Zorko among the fallen premiums
With Round 1 done, we’ll take a look at some of the big movers in AFL Fantasy. The projected numbers in here are based off previous year’s data and may be ballpark figures only, but offer a guide for planning purposes.
Author: Dale Clohesy @DPC888
We’ve also flagged potential break-even numbers, both high and low. Prices are based on a rolling five-game average for each player, so one big score or low score can affect their prices and break-evens over a period of a few weeks.
Nick Martin (AF $266k FWD)
Wow. Need we say more. On a dark day for the Bombers, one of the only shining lights was Nick Martin. He had great positioning on the field as an outside mid and forward, and very clean disposal. His score of 130 on debut makes him one of the cash cows of the year. But beware, he may not get near that score again.
He has gone up $76k with a break-even of -44, so you know his price will go up if you missed him and are weighing whether to grab him. In the WAFL he never had more than 25 possessions and three goals, so his 27 possessions and five goals means he might only average 70s-80s from here on in, at best at a guess. If he averages 80 for Rounds 2 and 3, his price will go up over $70k for weeks 2 and over $60k in week 3. So after Round 3 he could be priced at over $400k, scoring dependent of course. I think that the 70 average for Rounds 2 and 3 is conservative. His break-even after Round 3 would just be in the negative.
Jack Hayes (AF $253k R/F)
An eye-catching performance by the big man thus he should hold his spot, even with Paddy Ryder coming back into the team in Round 2-3. Good mark overhead, nice goal kicking and some decent disposal. Not guaranteed to do it all again. But again, like Martin, cash cows are cash cows, we need them. His price has jumped $63k this week and he’ll have a break-even of -31. If he averages 65 for Rounds 2 and 3, his price should go up by about another $120k, so he could be priced at over $360k after Round 3. With a break-even around the zero mark at that point. Money to be made.
Nick Daicos (AF $332k MID)
He is the most owned AFL Fantasy player and the talk of the town still after starring in the mid role for the Pies on Friday night. He has gone up $48k this round and has a negative break-even (-7). Let’s say that Daicos can score 80 in each of the next two rounds, he will go up over $100k total over those two rounds and could worth nearly $450k which is massive. For that small bracket of people that missed Daicos at the start of the season, it isn’t too late to bring him in if you got the other rookies. Even after Round 3, Daicos could still have a very low break-even, close to single or low double digits. He might be one of the last players traded out of people’s starting squads in all reality.
Josh Rachele (AF $327k M/F)
How many players are going to kick five goals on debut this round? Incredible. I rate Rachele being able to replicate how he played this round again too. He is clean in his disposal and elite around goal. A score of 100 this round, I think he can go about 75 for the next two. Similar to Daicos, he’s gone up $47k and then if he averages that 75, could earn about an extra $100k over rounds 2 and 3. With a negative break-even for a few weeks, he is definitely a cash cow. He isn’t leaving the Crows side anytime soon hopefully.
Yes there are other players under $300k who will make money and many priced over it. But these are going to be the big cash generation players early.
Then there’s the other category, the premiums who didn’t quite hit the mark and will be cheaper in a week or two if you’re reading to manoeuvre your side.
Jack Crisp (AF $819k D/M)
The Crisp owners were out in force on Friday night, seething at his Fantasy score. A pultry 51 will have him well in most owners’ rage trades. For the rest of us, he could be great value in a few weeks’ time. He has dropped $35k and HAS a break-even OF 143. That BE is achievable for Crisp, we know that. However, let’s say he puts up two scores of 95 for the next two weeks. He would drop over another $50k in those two weeks and be closer to $770k in price by the end of Round 3. Basically a steal, but we would need to see that he can score those 95s for two weeks before picking him up.
Jayden Short (AF $766k DEF)
Short is again becoming renowned for lighting it up in the pre-season and failing to deliver in the regular season. This year, so far, is no different. Though remember, last year he put up shocking numbers Round 1 and went on to score 120 in Round 2, so who really knows what is coming this year. During the game on Thursday night, no one was looking for him for hit-up marks. He ran for overlap handpasses a lot and didn’t get used. A lot can change in a week. This week he has dropped $17k with a break-even of 117. If he hits 90 for the next two weeks, he will drop another $30k total over that time and still have a break even over 110 for the entire time. He could be closer to $730k by the end of week 3.
Lachie Whitfield (AF $778k D/M)
Whitfield owners were searching for him in the first half in the match on Saturday, with only 6 points in the first quarter. Six, wow! Not Whitfield-like at all. This week he has gone down $17k, and if he averages 95 for the next two rounds he drop over $28k total over that time, making him about $750k by the end of Round 3. He will have a break-even of over 110 for the next few weeks, scores he can easily eclipse, but there would have to be some improvement. He was already considered under-priced at $795k, though, a score of 69 in the first round, maybe he wasn’t.
Hugh McCluggage (AF $813k MID)
McCluggage has been Mr Consistent, but not in Round 1 this year, with a score of only 62 leading to a drop of $26k this week with a 133 BE. If he averages 95 for Rounds 2 and 3, he will drop another $50k total during that time meaning that he will be closer to $760k by the end of week 3. Practically a steal. His break-even will still be over 120 during that time.
Taylor Adams (AF $826k MID)
Adams just wasn’t in the match enough on Friday night, even though he was everywhere. His score of 71 has seen his price dip $20k this week with a break-even well over 120 (129). Over the next two weeks, if he puts up two scores of 95 he will still drop another $40k, bringing his price down to well under $800k. Some had him as an increase this season compared to last season, so he could be a very good option going forward. He would still have a break-even of over 120 by the end of Round 3.
Dayne Zorko (AF $860k MID)
Given Zorko’s injury, this is one to consider down the line with his 31 set to see his price drop drastically in the games upon his return. The word is his injury isn’t the Achilles so it may not be a long lay-off. He has dropped $53k this round and if he goes on to average 90 in the two games that he plays upon his retrun, whenever that might be, he will drop over $90k total during that time. That means after a few games Zorko could be under $770k, so definitely have him on your watchlist.
Max Gawn (AF $892k RUCK)
A 79 for Gawn on the first night of the season had a lot of people who went set-and-forget in their rucks, wanting to forget. Gawn will be fine going forward, but maybe there will some regression. This week he has dropped $19k with a 138 BE. Even if he averages 100 for the next two weeks, he will drop another $40k total over the next two weeks and have a break even over 130 for that time as well. It means you could get Max Gawn for closer to $850 in three weeks’ time, potentially upgrading someone like Rowan Marshall.