The big dilemma for coaches this week is whether to hold or trade Jack Ziebell and Harry Sheezel ahead of North Melbourne’s bye as they start to lose in value. Plus Ethan Lee looks at a few trade-in targets off the Round 12 bye.
Is it worth Keeping Sheezel and Ziebell?
The return of Aaron Hall has caused some concern for the many owners of both Jack Ziebell (AF $854k SC $517k D/F) and Harry Sheezel (AF $772kSC $464k D/F) as both players are falling into the chopping block category as both have had to endure some role changes over the past three weeks under interim coach Brett Ratten which has produced some poorer scoring. Today i wanted to break down the pros and cons of why we should bin them now vs holding them.
When Hall wasn’t in the team for the first 5 games of the year, both Sheezel and Ziebell were huge basement-priced players who averaged 111.8 and 100.2 respectively. However Hall’s return in Round 5 did push Sheezel initially out of the backline but we could argue that a “Nick Holman tag” was responsible for this. Business resumed as per normal the next week with Sheezel, Hall and Ziebell all being able to co-exist in the backline against the Dees in Round 7. Hall was still omitted from the side even after 30 disposals and 12 marks. It was in Hall’s return game in Round 10 however where we first saw another significant role change as Sheezel was pushing up forward more and into the midfield.
Harry Sheezel Round 10 heatmap
Harry Sheezel Round 11 heatmap
Harry Sheezel Round 12 heatmap
As seen in the last few weeks Sheezel has not just been utilised in the backline but more as a utility all over the ground. This doesn’t necessarily mean it’s a bad thing though as he’s still finding a way to find the pill according to his heat maps. It’s just that as a backman it’s easier to score more efficiently as a “dump kick” would essentially be free points. In the last two weeks he’s only had 21 touches which is his equal second lowest disposal count for the year again generally not a bad thing but he’s needed to hit 25+ to hit the 100 mark especially if he’s not getting free points from kickouts. The worry I have with Sheezel is that since North are missing a few midfielders, by the time the likes of Jy Simpkin and LDU are all fit to play as well as the injection of Tarryn Thomas into that mix may result in Sheezel playing deep forward which is terrible for his scoring.
Ziebell is a more complicated discussion as the addition of Aaron Hall has had no bearings on his role, other than having to share some kick-ins with Hall. The only significant change was seen last week as he saw a season low kick-ins with 2 as Hall took 5. Unfortunately, there isn’t enough data to indicate whether this is a permanent fixture or the Bombers happened to kick all their behinds when Ziebell wasn’t there to take the kick-ins out.
So even if he isn’t getting the cheap easy points from kick-ins, there is a genuine trend that he’s getting the footy less with Hall in the team. As he averaged 21 disposals in the five games hall has played while when Hall was absent he’s had 26.7 disposals without Hall, so there is some truth to Hall taking some of his possessions. But is there more to this as he’s averaging 26.4 points less?
Aside from having a few more clangers in the last few weeks which hurt his scoring. Another consideration is that they have a new coach for the past three weeks which does coincide with Ziebell’s poorer scoring. There’s unfortunately not a whole lot of stats yet to indicate a whole new game plan and highlighted by Ratten in a press conference back when he first started: “A few little positional changes but the template set by Clarkson would remain.” So there could be a slight indication that the game plan doesn’t need to revolve around Ziebell as much and he returns to playing his role rather than being the designated kick out of the back 50.
So where does that leave us as SuperCoach players? Well, North have their bye in two weeks’ time. For me the most ideal scenario is to hold off a huge fire sale this week and wait till Round 15 to secure the best score possible. Remember it is best 18 the whole way so a poor score from either of these two won’t count to your overall score at the end of the day. Right now, these two guys are premium trades as you’d rather take a score from these two than risking it on one of the current rookie selections. Both of them have very unique DPP status which makes them extremely useful in these rounds when we’re fielding the most players possible.
One argument you could make is that by holding onto them you’ll be constantly losing value on them as both could drop sub $450k (Ziebell’s breakeven is 172 and Sheezel’s is 119). This makes trading them a bit of a nightmare as you won’t be able to afford the top premium options rather having to seek value which doesn’t necessarily sound like a bad thing but does have more associated risk than getting a proven star.
Bye buying season
With plenty of players coming off the bye its time to load up on these guys who will be able to play through the rest of the bye rounds rather than trading in premiums who will miss a game in their next 3.
Jake Lloyd (SC $520k Def)
It was a coin flip between him or Blakey but the reason why Lloyd wins it for me is because in the four games when Rampe was out, Lloyd showed a lot of consistency averaging 103.75. Both probably should score well against the Saints as they give up huge points to opposition defenders (Ziebell, Sicily, Cox all 170+). I’ve also ignored Sinclair given that he’s likely to get a Ryan Clarke tag this week. But back to Lloyd who’s back to his consistent best constantly sea-gulling from the back pocket, the addition of Rampe and other defenders in the coming weeks should free up Lloyd to become an even bigger distributor from the backline. He won’t attract a tag given how dangerous Nick Blakey is with his run and carry.
Luke Jackson (SC $509k Ruc/Fwd)
There is some associated risk with this one but with the recent news that Sean Darcy’s hamstring is only 1-2 weeks away, Jackson will take the main ruck mantle and he’s shown in small pieces that he can break open games. His last four games have been extremely impressive averaging 108 with some Tim English like numbers. With more ruck time he should get more of the pill which may take away some of his recent goal kicking but regardless it seems Freo have found their feet with an adjusted gameplan which has benefited some like Jackson but some of their other defenders like Luke Ryan are down on their nuclear average. When Darcy returns we don’t know what the ruck split will be like but if Jackson impresses we can only imagine that he’ll earn more time to showcase his ruck prowess.
Lachie Neale (SC $578k Mid)
I’ve floated Neale’s name as a genuine premium option to pick up all year because he’s shown that he can still score huge when given the chance as seen by the 176 in round 5 but he’s stepped back a gear from his usual 120+ average in years go by. That’s potentially mainly to do with the emergence of Josh Dunkley as a helping hand for Neale as well as a great supporting cast of Hugh McCluggage and Will Ashcroft. In the last two games he’s found some great form going 120 back-to-back even with a Ben Keays tag in Round 11. At $578k there aren’t many guaranteed 115+ midfielders left especially with someone who’s down $100k from his starting price.
Isaac Heeney (SC $466k Fwd)
There’s a bit of risk involved with this one but last game Heeney was moved into the midfield to do a tactical job on Patrick Cripps to make him accountable and add some physicality. He was still great managing to have 19 disposals and 10 tackles which is some of the numbers we like to see from one of the most talented players. The only problem with owning Heeney is that at some point he can get locked away in the forward 50 as he’s such a great marking target which results in some poor scores at times. Now that he’s quite cheap and his last three weeks have shown some upside to him he could be one to ride home especially with some of Sydney’s key forwards coming off injury. It’s still a giant risk however but you could definitely do worse at that price.
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