Stephen Coniglio during the GWS Giants pre-season training on January 18, 2023. Photo by Phil Hillyard (Image Supplied for Editorial Use only - **NO ON SALES** - ©Phil Hillyard )
Last week Lachie Neale, Jordan Dawson, Rory Laird and Marcus Bontempelli all went massive but what’s important is that its upgrade season and we need to find some of the players who have dropped in value as the $600k players are out of our price range.
Furthermore in order to get our upgrades we need to swap out some rookies, so which ones are ready to be cut and which others are worth picking up?
Bargain Buys
We’re at the stage of the year where upgrades are starting to appear but we can’t just go all out and get the best players as our rookies haven’t reached their peak price yet. So we have to compromise and get some value instead, but there are some very good selections who have dropped a bit of coin that are a strong chance to finish top 10 in their position.
Defenders
Jack Sinclair (SC $547k Def)
Defence is probably the least of our worries with the likes of Ziebell and Sheezel available to be swung back but the most expensive defender at the start of the year has dropped around $80k in price already and could get slightly cheaper as he’s predicted to fall to $530k mark. But why has this been the case? Well under Ross Lyon his role has changed up a little, playing some stints in the midfield. Since the game against the Dogs he’s ramped up the midfield centre bounce numbers getting 21%, 38% and 39% in the last 3 games. Now all this could be a result of the mass St Kilda injury toil with the likes of Steele and Bytel missing from the team. But with hints that they’re back this week, we could see Sinclair back to his natural half-back flank role. He’s still scored very well in 4 of the first 5 games with 1 poor score of 63 against the Bombers. You only have to look back to last year when he only had 3 scores under 100 and 7 under 110 to see that you’ve got a bargain on your hands. We all avoided him in the preseason as we were uncertain of the Ross Lyon effect but now that he’s showing he’s doing the same thing as last year there’s no reason not to jump on him now.
Midfielders
Darcy Parish (SC $558k Mid)
Everyone keeps on avoiding Darcy Parish ever since his breakout year as the past 2 years he has been a megapod for those who picked him but the notorious ball winner is no supercoach slouch. Last year in an injury-affected season he averaged 110.9 and the year prior he averaged 114.1. Now this year he’s had a slow start only going at 104.2 but that was helped when he scored poorly against the Saints. But to be fair not many premium mids have scored well against the Saints this year. Now Parish’s history against the Pies is tremendous with a 133 and 163 on Anzac Day whilst he did score a 74 in R23 2021 he was specifically tagged. Currently, Collingwood does not play with a tagger so we shouldn’t worry about that. There’s plenty of upside for Parish for this week and the rest of the year as Zerret will miss this week and he’s certainly underpriced for someone who can average 110+
Forwards
Stephen Coniglio (SC $486k Mid/Fwd)
I would have had to flip a coin between Zac Butters and Coniglio to be mentioned here but Coniglio slightly edges it out just on the basis that he is playing as a full-time midfielder whereas Butters has had a mixed role with the last 2 weeks pushing him to be a full time inside midfielder while his first 3 games had him more as a high half forward/wing. But back to Coniglio who dominated in round 1 but slowly fell off in the next few games scoring 107, 58, 71 and 102. He has been known to chuck the ball on the boot a bit too often which results in many clangers and turnovers but overall the positive signs are that his role is locked in and he’s still getting plenty of footy. Add in the fact he can hit the scoreboard too. We mustn’t forget that post-bye Coniglio was basically the number 1 ranked forward after being given a full-time inside mid role so at $486k he is very much a bargain trade-in.
Wildcard options to keep an eye on
I wanted to throw these names in, not as current trade-in options but more as ones to keep an eye on because so far they’ve lost a lot of money but it can’t be long till they get back on track.
Ollie Wines (SC $439k Mid)
The former Brownlow medalist had knee surgery at the end of last year which delayed a lot of his preseason. This has taken a big toll on his start to the year only averaging a measly 68.2. A lot of people may point out the emergence of Rozee, Butters and JHF taking points off him but good players will always score well regardless of who else they share the ball with. Last year he finished off the year averaging 105.5, even if he can’t back to those lofty heights he is set to bottom out at around $375k in a few rounds’ time. So it’s all about timing and when you believe he is back to form because I struggle to believe he will struggle for this long. Maybe if he gets rested or post-bye he will be a great get but just continue to watch his price. His role is very similar to taking the 2nd most centre bounces at Port which is a solid sign
Andrew Brayshaw (SC $540k Mid)
People who started him have been in pain for the first 5 games of the season with quite a few underperforming games. But Freo as a whole have been underperforming in general, Longmire did mention last week that he was carrying a niggle which may contribute to his lower scoring. However, he’s too good of a player to continue to score like this. It does look like Serong has gone past him but that may just be down to Brayshaw being unable to contribute as much due to this injury he’s carrying. Add to that the loss of Mundy and Brodie showing a fraction of his potential, it may put too much pressure on Brayshaw. Now this is another one where I expect him to bounce back but I don’t know when. It could be after the bye it could be next week. But he’s another one to keep an eye on.
Rookies
It’s a tough time because this week we’re at a stage where the rookies are not very convincing to pick up and the ones we have either have solid job security combined with a high breakeven. So I’ll be discussing the pros and cons of trading some of the popular picks and who is worth picking him
Buy
Matt Roberts (SC $130k Mid/Fwd)
Likely the best-valued rookie even though he’s played 4 games, 3 of them have come when he was the sub so his value hasn’t jumped too much but last week he got his first crack at the big time and he delivered by scoring an impressive 93 which included 14 disposals, 4 tackles and 4 marks. In all honesty, though this is an overperformance and the Richmond side was terrible as many of the Sydney players did score well in that game. However, as a junior, he was very prolific scoring 175,188 and 240 in 3 SANFL U18 games. So he’s got the package made to score well, it’s just his job security may be a bit flaky. As it stands the Swans are missing a few players but they are taller key position players such as Rampe, Franklin, Hickey, both McCartin brothers and now Amartey all set to be on the sidelines. It has forced Sydney to run a bit of a small ball lineup which allowed Roberts to play a full game. The positive is that he should have a few more games in the Sydney team but we should be wary that at any point he could be the sub again.
Luke Edwards (SC $194k Mid)
I don’t expect everyone to have the coin or to make this move but realistically he has the best job security of any midfielder. Playing as a pure winger at the Eagles, who have about a billion injuries means that his role should be safe in the team. His first 2 scores of 68 and 66 demonstrate he has the ability to score decently. So why the hesitancy, well he’s priced at 194k which is not ideal for a downgrade option so you may find yourself lacking money for an upgrade if you’re doing a classic one-down, one-up move. However, with the rest of the players dropping like flies, they might not have any choice but to play him. It was only last year when we had Patrick Naish who started at a similar price played the first 10 games because of the massive injury list and made around 150k in the first 7 games averaging 70 odd.
Dylan Williams (SC $124k Fwd)
Even though he’s listed as a forward, Williams has been playing down in the backline for the Power this year after starting life as a lively half forward and so far he’s played impressively picking up key matchups and scoring a respectable 64 and 51. His success has come through due to the likes of Lachie Jones and Darcy Byrne Jones being played exclusively as defensive forwards in the Port side so it has opened up a gap for the Port backline. Jonas is set to return this week which could see him on his last legs but if he does keep his spot he’ll be a handy cash generator and potentially will get DPP status in Round 12 if he makes it that far.
Sell
Cam Mackenzkie (SC $264k Mid/Fwd)
Yes, this is the obvious one but if you’re holding onto him, it’s time to let him go. While he is highly rated and will have a game where he plays very well. It looks like he’s tiring out and may need a rest after being managed as the sub this week. It was a good run but his 14 will stick with him for a few weeks too many so it’s time to cut the chain and take the cash. His job security is still very good however so if you’re really holding out for that I do commend you but it will be a painful 2 weeks if you watch his price.
Reuben Ginbey (SC $297k Def/Mid)
He is another one who’s trying to be managed by the Eagles, he was subbed out on 51 after putting in a valiant effort where he got a poke in the eye and copped a Patrick Dangerfield boot to the wrist. His BE is 81 this week which means he will most likely lose some coin this week but as mentioned above his job security should be fine with the rest of the Eagles players dropping like flies. Look if you can get the upgrade you want by trading him. I fully recommend doing that but you could also hold if you believe he’ll get back to his proper scoring where he scored 85,75 and 104 in the first 3 games. That 40 will only linger for this week so while he may take a small hit to his scoring he is set to bounce back up and continue making cash if he can average around 70. But as I mentioned before don’t hold him if it is stopping you from upgrading your team.
Oskar Baker (SC $253k Mid)
A popular player who’s had a solid outing for our teams in the first 5 games and even though his BE is 46, holding him an extra week will make you minimal cash. Like Ginbey, because he has good job security if trading him means you can get a premium that you want into your team then I have no issues trading him out seeing as he’s had one score above 55.
Ben King (SC $213k Fwd)
Still owned by 7% of teams, he’s had some very rubbish scoring and is now starting to bleed cash. Get rid of him as 23 and 31 will stick with him for the next week or two. While he does play North this week, it doesn’t necessarily mean he will provide you with a decent score. Take the 100k from trading him to Dylan WIlliams and run.
Connor Mckenna (SC $288k Def)
This one is more of a preemptive trade, yes his breakeven of 25 is achievable but with all the rebounding defenders in the team, Mckenna was only able to manage a score of 55. His job security still looks very good so that shouldn’t be a worry but if he can’t get to that 70-odd score he’s likely to be a trade-out next week. If there’s an option you want to upgrade this week, then I can see why you’d want him to move on this week but certainly, you can hold for an extra week for an extra 20-30k profit.
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