When selecting a VC/C each round, the points conceded by the opposition always need to come into your calculations. Some sides give up more than others and thus present a better opportunity for your VC/C.
But form tends to fluctuate throughout AFL seasons, so at this stage of the season, it can be misleading to simply look at the entire year’s data. What sides were doing in Round 1 may be very different to Round 15 or 16. That’s even more true around the byes when some sides reset or re-discover form.
So to help you not fall into any traps with your VC/C choices, we’ve analysed the whole season’s data for points conceded on average by each side in AF/SC, along with their past four games to pinpoint any critical discrepancies which may indicate a fixture previously seen as “easy” isn’t quite that easy anymore.
AFL Fantasy
Over the course of the 16 rounds played this season the sides who have conceded the most AFL Fantasy points are North Melbourne, Hawthorn and West Coast (all more than 1600 per game on average). All four sides are in the AFL’s bottom four currently too.
The hardest side to score against in AFL Fantasy has been Port Adelaide by a considerable margin, followed by Fremantle, Carlton and the Brisbane Lions – the latter three all being in top-four contention on the AFL ladder.
AFL Fantasy Points Conceded
| Team | 4-Game Avg | Season Avg | Discrepancy |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Melbourne | 1610.25 | 1839.8 | -21.5 |
| Hawthorn | 1707 | 1754.5 | 90.5 |
| West Coast | 1580.25 | 1799.2 | -30.1 |
| Collingwood | 1540.5 | 1655.9 | 12.4 |
| Gold Coast | 1518.5 | 1689.6 | -2.8 |
| Essendon | 1506.5 | 1684.7 | -11.8 |
| Melbourne | 1501.5 | 1591.5 | -14.3 |
| Adelaide | 1673.75 | 1669.7 | 161.5 |
| St Kilda | 1425 | 1628.1 | -83.8 |
| Geelong | 1514.75 | 1596.9 | 15.8 |
| Western Bulldogs | 1517 | 1587.5 | 23.6 |
| GWS Giants | 1468.25 | 1617.3 | -17.3 |
| Richmond | 1505 | 1643.5 | 25.3 |
| Sydney | 1455.5 | 1633.9 | -20.5 |
| Brisbane Lions | 1484.5 | 1590.6 | 24.9 |
| Carlton | 1459 | 1555.8 | 2.3 |
| Fremantle | 1457 | 1576.2 | 3.0 |
| Port Adelaide | 1498 | 1585.1 | 80.4 |
However, over the past four games (five rounds with a bye each included), West Coast are the side who have improved the most in comparison to the rest of the season, giving away 112.3 points fewer than their season average per game, which is considerable given the next best is Adelaide at 55.3. During this span, West Coast also played Geelong (third most points scored in AFL Fantasy) so it’s not built around fortunate fixturing. The Eagles have improved on the park too, so it all adds up.
On the flipside, the Saints have been giving away more points than usual in their past four games having lost three of them, followed by Hawthorn and the Western Bulldogs.
Over the past four weeks, the sides who’ve conceded the most points have been Hawthorn, North, St Kilda and the Dogs (in that order), while the sides who’ve conceded the least have been Port, GWS, Adelaide and Geelong.
SuperCoach
Across the season, North (1839.8 points per game) stand out as the most leaky SC side, followed by West Coast (1799.2) and Hawthorn (1754.5). The rest of the teams are bunched within approximately 140 points per game from 1550-1690 which shows how much these three are outliers, thus prime VC/C opponents
On the flipside, Carlton, Fremantle, Port, the Dogs, Brisbane, Melbourne and Geelong have all been really hard to score against, conceding less than 1600 points per game on average.
SuperCoach Points Conceded
| Team | 4-Game Avg | Season Avg | Discrepancy |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Melbourne | 1888.75 | 1839.8 | 49.0 |
| West Coast | 1711.75 | 1799.2 | -87.5 |
| Hawthorn | 1818.75 | 1754.5 | 64.3 |
| Gold Coast | 1655.5 | 1689.6 | -34.1 |
| Essendon | 1624.75 | 1684.7 | -60.0 |
| Adelaide | 1600 | 1669.7 | -69.7 |
| Collingwood | 1597.25 | 1655.9 | -58.7 |
| Richmond | 1634.25 | 1643.5 | -9.3 |
| Sydney | 1682.75 | 1633.9 | 48.8 |
| St Kilda | 1732.5 | 1628.1 | 104.4 |
| GWS Giants | 1556.75 | 1617.3 | -60.6 |
| Geelong | 1542.25 | 1596.9 | -54.7 |
| Melbourne | 1600.25 | 1591.5 | 8.8 |
| Brisbane Lions | 1657 | 1590.6 | 66.4 |
| Western Bulldogs | 1628.25 | 1587.5 | 40.8 |
| Port Adelaide | 1597.25 | 1585.1 | 12.2 |
| Fremantle | 1587.25 | 1576.2 | 11.1 |
| Carlton | 1586.75 | 1555.8 | 31.0 |
Over the past four games, North remain the easiest to score against, giving up 1888.75 which is up on their season average by almost 50 points. With that in mind, it’s definitely worth considering a Magpies player for VC/C ahead of their game against North this round.
West Coast have improved a lot but have still given up the fourth most points during this period. St Kilda have become one of the easiest sides to score against over the past four games too, conceding more than the Eagles during this span, which is in contrast to their season average of 1628.1 per game.
Geelong and GWS have been particularly hard to score against lately, so take caution with Clayton Oliver or Christian Petracca as your VC this round.
