Devil’s Advocate: La Niña – What if the first game of BBL|11 is washed out?
Welcome back to Devil’s Advocate. With less than seven days until the first BBL|11 game, today we’ll be looking at the weather outlook for Round 1 and how it could affect the setup of our sides.
Photo Credit: Mark Kolbe/Getty Images
There are two weather cycles that occur in the Pacific region of the world (where Australia is). There’s El Niño (dry summer) and La Niña (wet summer). Now this year, meteorologists have confirmed we have a La Niña summer on our hands. Now what does this mean for SuperCoach?
Well, it means that now we have to take into account weather when making trades, which sucks because it can change the balance of your team very quickly and how you approach a round.
The first game of BBL|11 is at the SCG, where the Melbourne Stars take on the Sydney Sixers. Now, the Sixers play twice in Round 1 and theSstars play once.
So today’s question is: what if the first game is washed out?
Well, as it stands, there is around a 40% chance of rain during the game. If it does rain and how significantly it impacts the match, potentially delaying or shortening it, is one of those things you won’t know until gameday but it does have massive implications on SuperCoach.
Always monitor the forecast as well as the coin toss, as an opener whose side are batting first in a rain-reduced game isn’t a disaster compared to others, but note the SuperCoach BBL lockout time is fixed, so it won’t delay if a game is delayed.
If the first game is rained out, we would see SuperCoaches trade out Stars players and scramble for replacements. Oh wait, we’ve come up with a plan B for this scenario.
The initial trade strategy from Round 1 to Round 2 was to trade out our three Heat players who have a bye for two or three Strikers players who have a DGW. From Round 2 to Round 3, we’d trade three Strikers players who have a bye for some Stars players who have the DGW and then trade them to Scorchers ahead of their Round 4 double.
Now, because of the rain in the first game, it may be time to essentially reverse engineer the trades we had set out to do.
Say you started Glenn Maxwell ($195k BAT/BWL) over Rashid Khan ($198k BWL) for his all-round ability, when Maxi has a washed-out game in Round 1, you put Rashid straight in. And if Marcus Stoinis ($163k BAT/BWL) doesn’t get to play in Round 1, you take a punt on a guy like Strikers’ English all-rounder George Garton ($125k BAT/BWL).
Basically start with your three planned Strikers players for Round 2 and your three Heat players for Round 1. Then when Round 2 approaches and the Heat are on a bye, trade those Heat players to Stars players and when Round 3 comes around, do the same thing and take out Strikers players for Scorchers players. Essentially shuffling the plan.
Below are some Strikers players to start with that are similarly priced to Stars players that are commonly owned:
Glenn Maxwell ($195k BAT/BWL) to Rashid Khan ($198k BWL)
Marcus Stoinis ($163k BAT/BWL) to George Garton ($125k BAT/BWL)
Sebastian Gotch ($62k WKP/BAT) to Harry Nielsen ($76k WKP/BAT)
Adam Zampa ($169k BWL) to Wes Agar ($142k BWL)
Also decrease the amount of Sixers you own for Round 1 if the first game is washed out. For example, look towards D’Arcy Short ($179k BAT/BWL) rather than Dan Christian ($184k BAT/BWL).
Well, there you have it, La Niña is going to really meddle with SuperCoach this year, but these articles are specifically designed to prepare for worst case scenarios and that’s what La Niña is. So be prepared and be ready to adapt to whatever scenario comes our way this summer.