Every preseason we convince ourselves certain players are automatic selections. High ownership. Big ceilings. Clear roles.
But “lock” doesn’t mean risk-free — especially in a season with rule adjustments, role shifts and evolving team structures.
Here are five names widely considered safe… but carry more risk than most are acknowledging.
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1. Harry Sheezel
Why he’s a lock: Elite accumulator with a massive ceiling. When stationed across half-back, his uncontested mark + kick game translates perfectly to SuperCoach scoring.
The risk: Role volatility. If North Melbourne push him further up the ground or rotate him through higher-impact roles, his easy +6 chains may reduce. As North’s midfield depth improves, his distributor role could subtly shift.
Verdict: Premium scorer — but highly role dependent.
2. Tristan Xerri
Why he’s a lock: Clear No.1 ruck. Massive hitout numbers. Genuine 120+ ceiling games when dominating stoppages.
The risk: The 2026 rule adjustments introduce uncertainty into ruck scoring. If stoppage dynamics reduce the impact of pure hitout volume or place greater emphasis on second efforts and ground-level involvement, traditional tap rucks could see scoring volatility. Xerri’s scoring has been heavily volume-based — and systemic shifts affect that profile most.
Verdict: Still top-tier with an amazing early season schedule — but the new rules add genuine risk to what looks like a safe pick.
3. Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera
Why he’s a lock: Elite ball user. Natural accumulator. Strong ceiling when controlling play off half-back.
The risk: He’s expected to transition into a pure midfield role in 2026 — and that changes his scoring profile significantly. His historical SuperCoach output has been built on intercept marks, rebound chains and uncontested +6 ball movement. Inside midfield scoring is far more contested, pressure-based and role-sensitive.
On top of that, he hasn’t consistently dealt with a hard, accountable tag. If he becomes a primary midfield driver, opposition attention increases — and we haven’t yet seen how his scoring responds under sustained pressure.
Verdict: Exciting upside — but role transition plus potential tagging introduces real volatility. Is Sinclair a better option?
4. Connor Rozee
Why he’s a lock: Explosive midfielder. Proven 130+ ceiling. Genuine centre-bounce weapon.
The risk: Durability and midfield balance are real concerns. Rozee has been prone to injury interruptions in the past, and even short-term absences can derail early-season momentum. Port Adelaide’s on-ball mix also continues to evolve, and his scoring spikes are closely tied to centre bounce dominance. Even a slight role adjustment can meaningfully impact his floor.
Verdict: Elite talent — but durability history and role sensitivity do add risk at his price point.
5. Christian Petracca
Why he’s a lock: Clearance machine. High time-on-ground. Long history of 100+ scoring seasons.
The risk: Value, not ability. Petracca is rarely underpriced. When selecting him, you’re paying for proven consistency rather than upside. If operating within a new team structure, history shows that changing environments doesn’t automatically translate to a higher SuperCoach average. System fit, midfield rotation and role balance all matter.
Verdict: Safe floor. Limited pricing advantage — and no guarantee of uplift in a new setup.
Final Thought: “Lock” doesn’t mean avoid.
It means to consider and understand what you’re actually buying — role stability, scoring profile, ceiling versus price.
SuperCoach seasons aren’t won by blindly following consensus. They’re won by identifying where consensus might be slightly overconfident.
Ben AFLSC360
Follow on X: Ben@AFLSC360
