We all know that fantasy classic is a game of value, but we often find other reasons to justify picking players in our starting squad.
Terms like; “he’s close to the top of his line” or “balancing premiums, mid-pricers and rookies on field” or “he’s a captain option” get thrown around a lot this time of year as reasons to pick a certain player, but is this really the way to go?
The entire game is based on maximising points per dollar, so shouldn’t we just be looking for the guys who outperform their price point the most? Sounds simple doesn’t it…
Many of you would have seen the success of a certain fruit-based coach, who is the master of making money, so why haven’t more coaches followed suit? This article will outline the best prospects for the 2024, based on how much money I expect them to make across the season.
First, we should outline some parameters.
- Price increases are based on 1 point being worth approximately $9030.
- The biggest value is often found in rookies, but picking a team full of rookies would leave too much cash in the bank and not enough points on field, so this article will focus on players who are over $300k.
- Potential increases are based on my projections, from taking in a range of sources this pre-season; however, these are still subjective and purely my opinion.
- Some players have been excluded due to injury or not quite being best 22/23.
- Players will be presented in the following format:
Name (Position, Price, Projection(priced at), Price Rise)
Now let’s get to business!
The top 10 price risers on my list are all priced under $300k, with the Kangaroos Colby McKercher ($297k, 82(33), +$442,470) topping the list. You do not want to miss the top rookies, but there is enough information out there about them, so the top 10 cash makers as I see it are:
10. Matt Crouch (MID, $734k, 100(81), $171,570)
A previous fantasy gun kickstarts this list with Matt Crouch finding his way back into the Crows midfield at the end of last year. In 9 season Crouch has outperformed his price 7 times, with the only two seasons below 88 being his first two. Last year once he returned to being a full time mid he went at an average of 98 which is plenty of meat on the bone. If Crouch can get anywhere near his best, then this should be an easy pick.
9. Dylan Stephens (MID, $496k, 75(55), +$180,600)
Not a name that has seen a lot of airtime this preseason, but priced at just 55, the upside is undeniable. Drafted a pick 5 back in 2019, clearly Stephens has the talent, but after struggling to lock himself in at Sydney, he now finds himself moving to the struggling Roos who appear to have a place on the wing for him.
Bailey Scott basically owned a wing last year, but the other side was a revolving door with names like Thomas, Ford, Taylor and Stephenson all having a go but no one really locking it down. If Stephens can continue his strong preseason, I think the spot is his and a 75 average is well within his grasp.
8. Max Gawn (RUCK, $831k, 113(92), +$189,630)
The first of 4 rucks (if you can believe it) to feature in the top 10. Big Max finds himself all alone for the first time in 4 years. Over this time Max still averaged over 100, and we all know the 2 years prior to this he went at 111.
There is enough just in those figures to suggest there is plenty of upside, but when Grundy found himself out of the side last year, and when Jackson missed games previously, we have seen Max go even bigger. I strongly believe Max will be right there at the end of the year pushing the top two rucks and the only reason you might not start him, is the names to come.
7. Zac Williams (DEF, $442k, 72(49), +$207,690)
Now I almost excluded Williams on the basis of injury, but I will include him with the flag that he may not get up for Round 1. All the reports still say he is on track, but having not seen him feature yet is a slight concern.
On the flip side, priced at 49, he only needs to go at an average of 72 to make position 8 on this list. Personally, I think this projection is conservative if Doch stays in the midfield. It would take some courage to start Williams with the early bye and the injury history, but the value is undoubtably there.
6. James Jordon (MID/FWD, 74(50), +$216,720)
One of the bigger buzz names of the preseason, James Jordon is looking more and more like a smash pick with our thin forward lines. The news this week that Luke Parker has a broken arm only solidifies this more.
Priced at 50, it appears Jordon has a wing spot within his grasp, with the possibility of some inside mid time. This is a guy who went 67 then 72 in his first two years before the vest brought him down last year. Into his fourth season with a new club, better role, thin forward line and with a great preseason behind him, what’s not to like?
5. George Wardlaw (MID, $552k, 85(61), +$216,720)
This one will probably be more contentious than some of the others, but I see a big second year break out coming for George Wardlaw. The kid has all the hallmarks to be a star and North clearly want him at the coalface with LDU. So, the role is there, and the talent is there.
The only concern I have is his low TOG. I imagine he may maintain this at the start of the year, but as their confidence grows that his body is fine, this should increase, and the sky is the limit for a guy who appears to have a great inside/outside game. If Clarko pulls the trigger early here and gets him up over 70% TOG, we could see an Oliver like second year incoming which would be a home run. If not, 61 is well and truly within reach and I cannot see him burning you.
Read our match sim notes from all nine games
View Honeyball’s full 2024 AFL pre-season injury list
4. Tristan Xerri (RUCK, $580k, 92(64), +$252,840)
A big buzz name during the preseason last year, Tristan Xerri has blown up even bigger this summer with the Roos sending Goldy on his way. He is clearly the number one and sole ruck at Arden St, and has shown some great points per minute (PPM) in the past.
Choosing the correct ruck combo this year is going to be tough, but it appears that all Xerri needs to do is stay on the park and he will be a smash pick.
3. Toby Conway (RUCK, $316k, 67(35), +288,960)
Another one I considered leaving out with the doubt about being best 22/23, but surely this is the year the Cats move away from Rhys Stanley. Conway had good TOG in the first practice match and has shown he is competitive enough in the ruck and around the ground.
Obviously, this projection is based on him winning the number 1 ruck role, but if he does, 67 should really be on the cautious side, making Conway a fantastic R3 option.
2. Alex Sexton (FWD, $382k, 75(42), +$297,990)
This pick feels a little riskier than some others as his hype has only really developed late. What we saw in the practice game though was clearly a shift to a half back role, where he definitely passed the eye test as a player who wanted the ball in his hands and was looked for by his teammates.
With Sexton, all we need is a little bit of luck, but even if Dimma only gives him 6 weeks in this role, his cash gen should be excellent, making him one of the value picks of the season.
1. Brodie Grundy (RUCK, $677k, 108(75), $297,990)
Is the Ruck Pig back? Let’s have a look at what has gone wrong with the pig over the past few years. After signing a monster contract at the Pies, things could not have gone worse for Grundy. First, he picked up an injury and then during his time out, Darcy Cameron showed he could really play and the list bosses at Collingwood decided that Grundy’s contract was actually a poor investment.
He was shipped off to Melbourne where he had to play alongside the best ruckman in the game (not ideal for fantasy). Again, the Dees decided this investment was a poor decision, and here we are with Grundy landing at Sydney. A club that just lost its number one ruck. A club that plays its home games on the SCG where Grundy averages a lowly 122 points. At 51% ownership, don’t overthink it, oink oink.
Well, there it is my top 10 money makers for 2024. If you managed to stay with me and make it to the end of this article kudos to you. As mentioned there were those who were disregarded but would make the list if they force their way into the 22 or are injury free, including; Finlay Macrae, Dev Robertson, Elijah Hewett, Caleb Marchbank, Paddy Dow and Heath Chapman. Some of the other names next on the list who could easily find their way in are; Connor Budarick, Cam Mckenzie, Reuben Ginbey, Matteaus Phillipou and Elliot Yeo.
Remember this system is purely based on price per point and expected improvement in average. Players who have a good early draw are more likely to “pop” quicker and can therefore be a better starting pick, so be sure to do your research and adjust the projections to your liking. Go get that value!
Read our match sim notes from all nine games
Read Rookie Watch from the match sim games
