The forward line is barren this year, which is the complete opposite to last season where we had a plethora of options. So what do we do in the forward line in 2024? There are a few names that should be in your calculations.
Premium Options
When looking at premium options in the forwards, they are few and far between. Two names have to stick out amongst the rest, and are the most popular players at F1.
Jack Macrae ($829k M/F) has been a fantasy superstar in his career, averaging over 100 points in eight of his 11 seasons, with a high of 122.6 in 2018. The last couple of seasons have seen him drop off, going from his second highest season average in 2021 of 115.8, down to 103.4 in 2022, then down all the way to 91.8 last season, which was his worst average since his 2013 rookie season.
This is due to big drop in CBAs with a few other names running through the midfield for the Bulldogs, with Marcus Bontempelli and Tom Liberatore being the main two followed by Adam Treloar. Jack Macrae went from 77% CBA’s in 2021, down to 64% in 2022, then the big drop last year down to just 36% CBAs.
He really went from being the no.1 or 2 guy to now being a guy that is in the mix for some CBA’s. With Bailey Smith out for the season due to a preseason ACL injury, could that open the door for Macrae to improve from his 36% CBA’s back towards 60%? If so, he should average 100+ and be amongst the top couple of forwards.
Note: Macrae suffered a hamstring injury in the Dogs’ Thursday match sim after this was written, although initial indications are that it’s minor.
Sam Flanders ($809k M/F) is the other popular name that coaches are looking at starting in their sides. Once he was given the opportunity in the final 10 games of last season, he averaged 105 points. Being priced at 89.6, there is potential there for 15+ points of upside.
The big sticking point with him…he has the Round 3 bye. In any other season, he would be locked into our sides without much thinking about it, but having the Round 3 bye means it is more of a discussion.
Could you just wait until after his bye? That is probably the play a lot of coaches are leaning towards, but he also has quite a high ownership of 40.84%, so people are locking him in regardless. If he goes big in Opening Round, that ownership will only sky rocket.
A couple of other names in the premium category for forwards are Dustin Martin ($812k FWD), Caleb Daniel ($811k M/F) and Dylan Moore ($794k FWD).
Dusty’s ceiling has always been limited somewhat due to his low mark and tackle numbers, and with him likely to spend time forward, and with an early bye as Richmond plays in Opening Round, it seems best to wait and see with him, but he does have one of the higher floors amongst the forwards.
Caleb Daniel has a bit of uncertainty with his role, whether he plays in defence, in the midfield, or up forward, he is a preseason watch to see his role.
Dylan Moore has potentially the most upside of these 3, but that is providing he gets some CBAs, so another watch during the preseason, but Hawthorn love his work in the forward 50, so we may not get that wish.
Value Options
With a lack of forward premium options like years past, we do have a number of value midpriced options to consider, with all being a big preseason watch to see their role and potential scoring:
Taylor Adams ($691k M/F)
Made the move from Collingwood to Sydney where we expect to see him in a more midfield prominent role where we have seen him average 100+ on a number of occasions. Priced below $700k, but should be in the mix for the top 6 forwards but cheaper than the other guys.
Josh Rachele ($649k FWD)
In stints while playing in the midfield last season, he looked really promising, as he averaged around the 90 mark when playing in the midfield. I expect the Crows to stick with Dawson, Laird and Crouch as the main 3 and even guys like Pedlar and Soligo could get some CBA’s so I’m not sure Rachele will see the CBA role, but a preseason watch.
Connor Macdonald ($638k FWD)
Finished off last season very well, averaging 90 in his last 3 games and 86.6 in his last 5. With a lack of forward options, if he can replicate that to start the season or even average around the 80 mark, he’s not going to be far off the top 6 forwards.
Zac Fisher ($623k FWD)
Traded from Carlton to North in the off season and should have a half back role. We saw last season he scored well at both AFL and VFL level playing in the half back role, averaging 98.5 in six VFL games and 86 in four AFL games. He looks a good starting pick, but a couple of hamstrings setbacks have made a lot of coaches question whether he can be in our starting sides.
Jack Billings ($538k FWD)
Another player who made the move in the off season, from St Kilda to Melbourne where he will look to get his career back on track after not playing much last season. If he can crack Melbourne’s best 22, he has been a proven scorer in the past, and priced at just $538k, could be a great pick. Plus we also get to watch him in Opening Round.
Elijah Tsatas ($476k M/F)
Made his debut late last year after some injury setbacks pushed back his debut, but he looked comfortable at AFL level pretty much straight away, averaging 64.3 from his 4 games, with his best performance coming in his second game against North where he scored 86 points. Preseason watch for role and is quite cheap.
James Jordon ($454k M/F)
Moved from Melbourne to Sydney seeking more opportunity, and comes at a discounted price due to the amount of games he was the sub. Has a pedigree for high scoring in the juniors and at VFL level, so if he has a good role, he may be too cheap to ignore. Another player we get to have a look at in Opening Round.
