MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - DECEMBER 14: Max Gawn of the Demons runs during a Melbourne Demons training session at Gosch's Paddock on December 14, 2022 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Martin Keep/AFL Photos for AFL Photos)
In the ever unpredictable world of AFL, injuries, suspensions and retirements are inevitable challenges that coaches and teams must navigate throughout the season.
While the impact of losing a key player is evident, the domino effect on the performance of teammates is a fascinating aspect from a fantasy perspective that we’ll delve into in this article.
Below, we are going to explore how the absence of a teammate has influenced the fantasy scores of other players, including 5 premiums that are worth considering in 2024 as a result, and one premium to reconsider…
Keidean Coleman (Brisbane Lions)
The rise of Keidean Coleman has been evident over the past two seasons, with the dashing defender enjoying a breakout season in 2022, increasing his SC average from 42.3 in 2021 to an impressive 87.0.
With Daniel Rich sadly no longer in the AFL, there is scope for Coleman to take on a larger role within the Brisbane team, something that was evident during the season when Rich was in and out of the side. Kick-ins are a factor in this, given Rich regularly took them, although Coleman may share duties with Conor McKenna.
2023 Season (including finals)
| Category | With Rich | Without Rich | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Disposals | 13.8 | 18.2 | +31.9% |
| Effective Disposals | 9.5 | 13.4 | +41.05% |
| Marks | 3.3 | 5.9 | +76.47% |
| Tackles | 2 | 2.9 | +45.0% |
| % of Kick Ins Taken | 13.3% | 21.9% | +8.5% |
| Metres Gained | 277.3 | 432.2 | +55.9% |
| SuperCoach | 57.3 | 82.2 | +43.4% |
As noted in the table above, Coleman saw a significant boost to his output when Rich was absent from the side. Couple this with his run home which saw him average 103.2 from his final five matches, including a magnificent Grand Final performance of 127 SC, Coleman is definitely one to keep on your radar.
Alex Witherden (West Coast)
Alex Witherden is considered much of an enigma in fantasy circles, largely due to his decent output, but very much in and out of the side. Thankfully, that appears to be redundant with the retirement of defensive stalwart, Shannon Hurn.
In the 2023 home and away season, Witherden played 12 games with Hurn and 10 without, and there is a noticeable difference and rise in Witherden’s output that could put him firmly on coaches’ watchlist for the 2024 season. Similar to Coleman, Witherden will take kick-ins with Hurn gone, but that’ll be shared with Jeremy McGovern and Liam Duggan.
2023 Season (including finals)
| Category | With Hurn | Without Hurn | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Disposals | 18.8 | 21.8 | +15.8% |
| Effective Disposals | 11.8 | 11 | -7.0% |
| Marks | 4.9 | 5.8 | +18.0% |
| Tackles | 2.1 | 2.5 | +20.0% |
| % of Kick Ins Taken | 20.8% | 38.1% | +17.4% |
| Metres Gained | 333.3 | 427.7 | +28.4% |
| SuperCoach | 77.7 | 92.7 | +19.4% |
There’s a good bump on a lot of the stat lines seen above, but looking at other statistical categories, the difference is negligible, but there’s no denying Witherden does see a decent increase in Hurn’s absence. Probably not enough to warrant an initial selection, but one to watch with keen interest in the early rounds.
Max Gawn (Melbourne)
The Brodie Grundy experiment at Melbourne was arguably largely a failure, but it provided statisticians and fantasy coaches a great insight into how Max Gawn fares when asked to share the ruck duties.
For the 2023 season, when Gawn was present in less than 50% of ruck contests, Gawn averaged 93.7. When that increased to greater than 65%, Gawn averaged a staggering 133.1 SC points, and the differences didn’t stop there…
2023 Season (including finals)
| Category | With Grundy | Without Grundy | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Disposals | 14.7 | 20.8 | +41.5% |
| CBA % | 51.0% | 87.8% | +36.8% |
| Ruck Contests | 42.9 | 69.1 | +61.1% |
| Clearances | 3.4 | 5.9 | +73.5% |
| Hitouts | 21.8 | 32.5 | +49.1% |
| Hitouts to Advantage % | 28.5% | 30.0% | +5.26% |
| SuperCoach | 92.7 | 130.4 | +40.7% |
It’s no surprise that when Gawn acts as a the sole #1 ruck, his statistics are incredibly elite, but from a SuperCoach perspective, that average without any assistance is remarkable, and puts him in the mix to be the #1 averaging player in the game if that trend continues into 2024.
Luke Davies-Uniacke (North Melbourne)
LDU as he is more commonly known by North and SuperCoach fans alike is fast becoming one of North Melbourne’s most valuable players and has seen an incredible rise to stardom in the past few years. He is a midfield bull who stormed home last year.
In the main, 2023 wasn’t too kind to LDU, as he missed a chunk of the season with various injuries to his hamstring, calf and heel. But when he was fit and firing, there was a lot to like about LDU’s output, especially when a certain retired legend, Ben Cunnington was absent from North Melbourne’s side.
2023 Season (including finals)
| Category | With Cunnington | Without Cunnington | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Disposals | 26.9 | 27.9 | +3.7% |
| Cont Possessions | 11.0 | 15.4 | +40.3% |
| Clearances | 5.9 | 7.6 | +29.3% |
| Tackles | 3.4 | 5.6 | +62.5% |
| CBA % | 85.1 | 78.9% | -6.2% |
| SuperCoach | 106.6 | 120.7 | +13.3% |
The mantle of contested bull evidently appears to have been handed over from Cunnington to LDU within North Melbourne, with his defensive workrate increasing significantly in Cunnington’s absence.
Most notably is that 120.7 SuperCoach average without Cunnington, which would have put him as the 2nd highest averaging player last season behind Bontempelli, hard to ignore especially if he’s 100% fit come round 1.
Luke Jackson (Fremantle)
The SuperCoach forward line is looking rather thin this year, with no Butters, Dunkley, Gulden, Treloar, Coniglio, Parker etc. Luke Jackson is currently the 2nd most expensive forward in SuperCoach, and is an incredibly valued asset to the Fremantle side.
His ruck counterpart Sean Darcy hasn’t enjoyed an injury-free career, nor injury-free 2024 pre-season, with an average of 14 games from the past 7 years since his debut in 2017. That level of durability is not great for SuperCoach, but could this be an option to capitalise on by looking at Jackson?
2023 Season (including finals)
| Category | With Darcy | Without Darcy | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Disposals | 13.8 | 17.4 | +25.9% |
| CBA % | 25.0% | 85.4% | +60.4% |
| Hitouts | 10.6 | 30.9 | +191.3% |
| Score Involvements | 5.7 | 5.4 | -5.1% |
| Marks | 3.3 | 3.5 | +5.0% |
| SuperCoach | 87.1 | 118.1 | +35.7% |
Unsurprisingly, when Jackson moved from a ruck/forward to a sole ruck, his centre bounce attendances, hit-outs, clearances all saw a monstrous increase, which in turn saw his SuperCoach score significantly rise to a might impressive 118.1.
Should another injury hamper Darcy’s 2024 campaign, then Jackson is an absolute must to have in your forward line. If Darcy’s fit and firing, then you might wish to reconsider him in your plans due to his highly subdued output.
Christian Petracca (Melbourne)
While the comparisons above have looked at premiums that perform better when a specific teammate is absent, what about the opposite?
There is no denying Christian Petracca is a superstar of the game and an uber-premium when it comes to SuperCoach. But is he reliant on others to prop up his scores? With James Harmes looking for a fresh start and more opportunities at Western Bulldogs and Oliver an unknown leading into Round 1, Petracca has a lot of weight to carry within the Melbourne midfield, and how much of an impact did Harmes have in that?
2023 Season (including finals)
| Category | With Harmes | Without Harmes | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Disposals | 29.7 | 26.8 | -9.8% |
| Clearances | 5.6 | 6.6 | -14.2% |
| Inside 50s | 6.6 | 5.5 | -16.1% |
| Score Involvements | 9.7 | 7.7 | -20.5% |
| CBA % | 64.9% | 59.9% | -7.7% |
| Metres Gained | 529.8 | 439.7 | -17.0% |
| SuperCoach | 128.3 | 112.3 | -12.5% |
Unlike the other pairs on this list, Petracca performed worse without Harmes in the side.
Furthermore, in the 5 games where Petracca was missing Oliver as well as Harmes, the stats sadly aren’t much better with Petracca averaging 113.6 when both Harmes and Oliver were missing. Something to keep in mind as we head to the opening rounds of SuperCoach.
