This week many premium players have weird matchups that don’t necessarily suit them. I think there will be some monster scores out of the blue, but also a lot of disappointing games from our top players. Picking the right Captain option will go a long way towards a ranking jump this week.
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Vice Captains
1. Marcus Bontempelli
Marcus has only had one score over 125 in his last seven games, but they have all been scores that have been fine as a Captain. We know he has the potential to drop a 160+ any given week and for that reason, he remains an option. Collingwood is one of the harder teams for opposition midfielders to score against, but given The Bont’s ceiling, this is worth using your VC on.
2. Nick Daicos
Nick showed his scoring ability when he is allowed to run free again last week, scoring 149. He has a harder matchup this week against the Bulldogs, who have restricted opposition defenders in recent games, but given his upside he could be worth a punt. He has only played at Marvel four times in his career, for scores of 98, 125, 69 and 124 (104 average).
3. Dan Houston
It is a bit cheeky putting Dan as a VC recommendation given that he plays Saturday night, but most people would have a Sunday loop player such as Drury, Davey, Mullin, Wagner or Sturt. Dan is the in-form Port defender at the moment with scores of 146 and 156 in his last two. He now plays the Gold Coast, who have recently given up some huge scores to defenders; Daicos (149), Noble (119) Day (131), Scrimshaw (127), Hardwick (120) and Newman (121). I see no reason why Houston should not be cleared for lift-off in this game.
Read our forward mid-pricers discussion about replacing Fyfe
Read who’ll likely get DPP additions after Round 17
Captains
1. Lachie Neale
We didn’t see the massive scores against West Coast from the Saints players last week, but that was because they nearly lost. I expect this game to be a huge blowout and for Lachie to be one of the drivers of that. Coming off scores of 143, 112 and 144 in his last three games, with a career average of 118 against the Eagles (from 15 games) and returning home to the Gabba all indicate that this could be a huge one.
2. Jordan Dawson
Jordan has had a quiet patch apart from the 149 against Collingwood. This week he plays Essendon, who have been restrictive to inside midfielders but have allowed huge points to the outside runners who stream forward and deliver inside 50. Players like Rozee (141), Farrell (131), Brayshaw (129) and Cerra (132) have feasted on the Bombers recently and I expect Dawson to do the same here.
3. Jarrod Witts
Jarrod is only averaging 90 points per game over his last four games, which have all been tough ruck matchups. Witts is someone who relies on accumulating Hit Outs to get his points, and he has been beaten to them recently. This week he plays against Port Adelaide, who are one of the worst Hit Out teams in the league, even when Lycett plays. And with Lycett out it gets even worse; if Teakle is the main ruck he wins the Hit Out 32% of the time. If Finlayson is the main ruck he only wins the Hit Out 17% of the time. They will leave plenty of points on the board for The Wittler.
4. Sean Darcy
Sean often seems to get fortunate ruck matchups when an opposition injury strikes. He gets it again this week with Carlton fielding no designated ruckman. He will match up against Jack Silvagni in the centre. I expect Darcy to have over 50 Hit Outs, which is one of his keys to big scores. 125 against English last week suggests a return to form after injury. Here are some of Darcy’s other games when he dominates the Hit Outs: 137 against Bulldogs, 151 against Sydney, 125 against Adelaide, 136 against Gold Coast and 132 against West Coast
5. Zach Merrett
Zach has a four-round average of 134 and has been a safe fallback option every week, despite playing some difficult matchups. Adelaide have been quite restrictive to opposition midfielders this season, but Zach is in such good form that I think he still gets it done (as he did against the difficult Port Adelaide). To give you a bit more confidence, he has scores of 143, 135 and 120 in his previous three meetings with the Crows.
POD Captain?
1. Adam Cerra
Adam has been flying under the radar this year, despite scoring the 11th most SuperCoach points across the season. He is only owned by 3% of the competition and is looking like a very strong Captain option this week. He has a three-round average of 130 and now returns to his old home ground to play against his old club, which he has only played once, for a score of 132. Combine this with the fact that Fremantle gives up big points to opposition midfielders and I think this is a juicy POD option.
My moves
I scored 2,606 last week which had me climbing up to rank 545th for the season.
Last week I chose Dunkley as Vice-Captain (107) into a Merrett Captain (114). I took Bontempelli’s score as Captain.
This week I will have the Vice-Captain on Neale followed by either Dawson or Merrett as my Captain (depending on how risky I am feeling).
