With the byes done, there’s nine rounds left in the SuperCoach season, so this week we’ve weighed up which clubs have the softest run home, plus with trades becoming thin, looked at a few potential final trade-in targets.
Who’s got the easiest run home?
With only 9 games left in the season, we should start considering the fixtures that teams have left as it could be the make or break for your final trades. We all should know that at this stage it won’t matter how many points a premium has scored instead we should focus on how many points they could achieve in the future. Thus by looking at their fixtures, we can identify teams that we should target and maybe teams we should avoid.
Taking a look at the teams that conceded the most points in SuperCoach it is not hard to see that the bottom few are the teams that are struggling in real life as well. The Eagles and Kangaroos leak quite a considerable margin more points than the rest of the competition so we should be targeting teams who manage to have fixtures against both of them. Interestingly because these two teams leak so many points, many other teams are very good at not conceding a lot of points. On the flip side, the Pies, Dees, Crows and Dogs all conceded less than 1600 points which makes them more challenging matchups (however it does not mean a premium can’t score big against them).
So what does data tell us?
There are two teams on the run home who play both the Eagles and North and they are the Saints and Crows. A bonus can be set on the Crows as they play them in Round 24 which would be many player’s SuperCoach grand finals. The Saints have a golden run playing against the Suns, Hawks, Tigers and Cats who are in the bottom six of conceding points to the opposition. They also only face one challenging team in the Dees who conceded the 2nd least points. Thus players like Jack Sinclair would be on top of your list to bring in if you don’t have him. I’d also be expecting a player like Jack Steele to bounce back with this easy run of games.
Other players you might consider are Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera who bounced back to ton up after a poor score in wet conditions and Mitch Owens who’s still playing as the backup ruck role allowing for some impressive scoring. The Crows have a similar fixture with only the Dees being tough opposition. Thus you could look to target the likes of Ben Keays who’s been pushed into the midfield and if you’re feeling extra risky Tex Walker who’s found a rich vein of form averaging five goals a game in his last five.
What is interesting to note is that there isn’t a huge gap between 1st and last in terms of fixture difficulty as on average there would only be a 60-point gap between the easiest run of fixtures and the hardest run of fixtures, However, this is still quite advantageous as SC is a game that only produces a total score of 3300.
This current spreadsheet also doesn’t consider recent form as for a team like the Blues and Tigers who have had poor starts to the year may have a turnaround with their SC scores where as a team who started well but may not be as strong in the back half of the year like the Saints and Dees might not reach the lofty heights that they’re projected.
It does not mean you shouldn’t pick Sydney and GWS players who have the hardest run home because good players will score well regardless of who they play against.
Read Wednesday’s news, including Thursday teams
Post Bye targets
Harry Himmelberg (SC $397k Def/Fwd)
A few weeks ago before the bye I was worried that the return of key defenders like Sam Taylor would force Himmelberg forward but that certainly wasn’t the case last week as he still played down back. Now unfortunately we haven’t seen the huge rewards from picking him like we did last year but there are signs. We know he’s a good user of the ball by foot and that lets him have more marks as he’s targeted. Even though he only scored 72 before the bye it was mainly due to Freo not getting it down into their forward line restricting all of their defender’s scoring. At 397k, he’s an absolute steal still and provides great coverage with his DPP.
Adam Treloar (SC $583k Mid)
You probably wouldn’t believe it but Treloar has the third highest three-game average just behind Bontempelli and Dunkley and that’s many thanks to huge scores of 131,122 and 142 before his bye last week. Now we know that in the past Treloar is an injury-prone player but we can’t discredit that he’s a total ball magnet. In the Dogs he’s getting plenty of the football being surrounded by superstar midfielders like Bontempelli, Macrae and Liberatore. Prior to this year, he was being shifted all over the ground but it seems Luke Beveridge has settled him down as a pure centre-bounce midfielder which is a huge tick. Priced at 583k he’s a very handy pod to have on the run home but do be aware that he is prone to breaking down at any moment so this could be one where you may need spare trades on hand.
Jayden Short (SC $535k Def)
Currently averaging 102.0 but we consistently ignore him because he’s a mid only. The most updated DPP % has shown that he’s very close to getting Def status again which would automatically put him back to a top 10 defender with that current average. While he did burn a few players in the past it is important to recognise that he’s still got the ceiling as he’s scored 120+ on 3 occasions with a reasonably high floor only dipping below 100, 5 times which includes 2 90+ scores. It may be a bit risky to jump on him now given you can get better-valued mids at a similar price and he’s still not guaranteed DPP but given the number of midfielders the Tigers have now, i wouldn’t think he’d be needed there.
Sam Walsh (SC $515k Mid)
Are the Blues back? Well, if they are then it could be the return of Sam Walsh and the rest of the midfield brigade. We thought Walsh hadn’t missed a step when he returned scoring 5 consecutive tons but coming into the bye the Blues went into a horrific run of form and so did their current midfield crop (except for Cerra). But why have I suggested Walsh now though, well in the most recent DPP update he’s very close to the required % to becoming a mid/fwd. We got sold a dream by Michael Voss when Walsh played 100% midfield time in round 11 which cost him that DPP status but hopefully we don’t get that same treatment. Even still at 515k, he’s quite cheap for what he can produce, it is just a matter of do you believe the Blues are back.
