Jackson Macrae’s newfound forward/midfield status has made him a popular trade-in choice this week but is it really a wise move? We’ve analyse that in The Buzz plus looked at Sean Darcy replacements and some cherry-ripe value picks.
Is there more to Macrae than we should consider?
Normally you would think that a constant 115+ averaging midfielder who’s hit a turn in form and just got dual position status would be the perfect pick-up coming into the byes. But is Jackson Macrae (SC $575k M/F) the real deal or just the beneficiary of a few injuries in the Dogs’ engine room and will return to a less ideal role?
Throughout the first half of the season, Macrae had been pushed out of the inside midfield mix with Adam Treloar (SC $535k MID) and even Caleb Daniel (SC $526k D/F) taking most of these roles which saw a mixed bag of scoring as he started the year with 5 tons in 6 games but this followed with 3 sub 100s in the next few weeks. A worrying sign for owners was that in Rounds 9 and 10 specifically, Macrae was utilised as more of a high half-forward and wing role rather than his usual centre bounce clearance work. However, with a serious hamstring injury to Treloar, it opened the door for Macrae to take back some midfield minutes, although Bailey Smith (SC $519k M/F) was a benificiary too.
Jackson Macrae Round 9 heat map (DFS)
Jackson Macrae Round 11 heat map (DFS)
So after his slight dip in form, he’s at the point where it is the last chance to pick him up before he hits back up to the $600k mark. With the news that Adam Treloar is just a fitness test away from playing against the Cats this week is it wise to pick him up given that we may assume he’ll take back more of these half-forward/wing role minutes which could see him score more sub 100 scores. As seen from the heatmaps above he still picks up most of his touches on the outside but his highest scoring is done when we include his clearance work from stoppages.
The other flip of the coin is that we might need to lower our expectations as his current average of 109.6 already puts him as the fourth highest-scoring forward. So a dip in scoring might not necessarily be the worst considering someone like Stephen Coniglio is still a top-10 forward only averaging 99.3.
If you are in the position to afford Macrae and it suits your bye structure then you absolutely should 100% pick him up, I can definitely see him averaging 105+ at the worst and the ceiling can only get better from his current position as any game he gets put back into the centre bounce mix generally results in him scoring better. With that being said, Luke Beveridge loves to throw players around in different positions all the time and we’ve seen it from Daniel this season who’s transitioned from the half-back flank to an important midfielder for the Dogs. As i said at the beginning it should be a no-brainer even if he is playing a different role because as a forward we don’t need him to score that high to be one of the top six averaging by season’s end.
Sean Darcy ruck replacements
Unfortunately for the 11% of teams out there with the third highest scoring ruckman in Sean Darcy, he’s just suffered a hamstring injury, which will rule him out for the next month, at least. My first thoughts are for you to look at your bye structures and see which rounds you can afford to lose another premium player to (probably Round 13) but there would be little point trading him to a Round 12 bye player who’s missing this week.
Mark Blicavs (SC $503k Ruc/Mid)
Blicavs is making use of a grim situation down at the Cattery with a plethora of injuries. He’s still Geelong’s number 1 centre-bounce midfielder and he still contributes to around 30% of the ruck contest around the grounds. The benefit of this is that he can potentially rack up Tim English-like numbers, like last game where he had 22 disposals, 6 tackles and 11 hitouts. So far his role has been very consistent being a defensive midfielder for the Cats due to his great running ability. Given his DPP status as well he can be moved into the midfield for additional flexibility during the byes. Furthermore, his Round 13 bye will suit you the best given it’s only Geelong and the Suns have that particular bye round.
Jarrod Witts (SC $606k Ruc)
In the same boat as Blicavs but I’ve put him below Blicavs as you’ll have to fork out some cash in order to get him. This season, Witts has been fantastic but did miss 3 games with “ soreness” which was a little suspicious. But since returning he’s found his form averaging 117.2 in his last 5 which has only been bettered by Rowan Marshall. There’s no reason he can’t continue this type of scoring and he’s got a generous bye-round as well.
Todd Goldstein (SC $612k Ruc)
This one is more of an uber POD option but I wouldn’t have thought that in his last 5 Goldstein was averaging 114.8 which includes a 54 against the Dees. It is an incredible run of games after he was snubbed from the team in Round 1. The big downside, however? Well, he isn’t getting any younger and it’s very rare to see a 34-year-old not need a break or break down with an injury. He’s not super injury prone in his career, only missing 1 game at the start of this season which was due to Clarkson’s team preference more than anything. He is more expensive than Witts, so there are probably better options for the price you pay at least.
Kieren Briggs (SC $255k Ruc)
The ruck roulette scenario at the Giants is an interesting one with Flynn being the preferred ruckman for the first 9 games before being omitted in Round 10 and Preuss carrying a long-term back injury has meant that Briggs has been given an opportunity to shine and he’s taken that with aplomb scoring back to back tons. His ruck performances have been very solid as he’s competed against a top ruck in Marshall and out-rucked Ceglar last week. As a cash cow, he should make more than $150k just after his bye, assuming he keeps playing, so he could be a steal for your final premium upgrades especially as we lack the rookies at this stage. A Round 15 bye though does mean that you’ll be playing one short if you have Tim English.
Darcy Cameron (SC $472k R/F)
A popular pick a few weeks ago faded because Collingwood teased him to be the sub in his comeback game and then made a late change so he wouldn’t be the sub. Regardless it hasn’t backfired on anyone as he’s been sharing the ruck load with Cox for the first game against the Blues before taking the lion’s share of them against North. Even though he still scored sub-100, you could argue that he performed very well against an inform ruckman in Goldstein. Now that he has the Eagles this week it is the perfect time for him to feast on a dismal team. Priced at $472k he’s ripe for the picking seeing that he’s gotten his old role back and is set to play an easy opponent. The dpp ruc/fwd status does mean you have the flexibility to bring in another ruckman later on if you want
Ripe for the picking
If you’re not someone with a lot of injury concerns then upgrading your team should still be a top priority, so why not look at some of these players who are undervalued?
Dylan Moore (SC $421k Fwd)
An underrated half-forward, Moore started the season very well averaging 99 from his first 5 games, but after the Hawks lost form, his scores dropped considerably. Moore first broke out last year going from a 76.5 average all the way to a 94.6 which was impressive considering he was playing high half-forward for a bottom 4 club. We expected him to get more midfield time with the loss of Tom Mitchell and Jaeger O’Meara but his role has consistently stayed the same being a dangerous half-forward for the Hawks which has resulted in games where he’s had around 20+ disposals, 8 marks and still hitting the scoreboard. With the Hawks turning their season around and finding some form, Moore could jump on that bandwagon. In wins last year he averaged 109 and so far this year he’s scored 131, 79 and 139 in the Hawk’s three wins this season so he’s definitely a barometer for the Hawks.
Sam Docherty (SC $558k Def)
Many would have felt hard done by Docherty as since he’s returned from injury he’s gone on to average 116 whereas he only scored above 100 once in his first 4. Playing a different role for the Blues, Docherty was shifted up to the half-forward flank in order to be a connector and has spent more time in the middle than he did in the first 4 games. With this upturn in form, he’s spiked up to 550k and is set to hit 600k+ just after his bye so it is the last chance to secure what could be a top-tier defender. If Docherty does continue this role he could also be eligible for a final DPP change in round 18 which will help your team’s flexibility.
Ben Keays (SC $351k Fwd/Mid )
This one is a very risky pick but a surprising move was to throw Ben Keays back into the midfield mix after playing as a pressure/defensive forward for the first 10 games of the season. He was sent to tag Neale for the first half which helped him rack up a ton of disposals, many of them contested as well as accumulate a lot of tackles. The reason I don’t like this selection too much is that he could be thrown back to his old pressure-forward role given there isn’t really a big name to lock down for the Hawks.
