The Buzz: Hold or trade Clarry? If trading, who are the best replacements – Trac, Zerrett, Laird etc

The big SuperCoach dilemma this week is what to do with Clayton Oliver with his “short-term” hamstring injury that conveniently will coincide with the best 18 bye rounds. Is it a hold, or is it a trade?

Clayton Oliver hold or trade?

We are all googling this week what “short-term injury” means because the third highest-scoring player this year has suffered a hamstring injury. If you were living under a rock Clayton Oliver suffered a hamstring strain that is set to sideline him indefinitely. Unfortunately, we are given no timeframe for his recovery as it is only described as a short-term injury. So what does this mean? Is it an obvious trade or maybe we should hold given that some of the superstars out there managed to push through their injury setbacks and return early? Let us investigate. 

The hold argument

For those who want to be holding him, ideally, you’d want him to only miss 1-2 weeks with this hamstring strain and that’s purely on the basis that you don’t want a $660k player sitting there accumulating a doughnut for more than three weeks. There’s an excellent argument to hold as bye rounds are starting next week and it will be best 18 for Rounds 12 to 15. This year rather than a classic 6-6-6 bye format the AFL has made it more friendly on us by having a bye structure of 4-2-6-6 which even further softens the pain of keeping Oliver out as you’re most likely going to have more players counting to your best 18 scores, especially in Rounds 12 and 13 where only a few teams are missing. 

There’s also an argument that Oliver might return even earlier than anticipated, for starters he managed to get through the full match after coping with the strain in the third quarter and still managed a 120 and this week by reports he was still participating in their training sessions which made us believe that he would be a chance to play. Now I haven’t heard of any player who has a hamstring injury and coming back within 1-2 weeks, but superstars like Tom Stewart who was listed as having a 3-4 week knee injury returned after one match as well as Sam Docherty who was listed as a 4-6 week injury managed to return after only three matches. Now albeit these are different kinds of injuries it does potentially give some hope that Oliver will be rushed back as soon as possible, however, this is only a guess.

Furthermore, by trading him out it makes it almost impossible to trade him back in afterwards. His price of $659k will require three, if not four, trades just to move a fattened-up rookie to him. If rather you were to upgrade around Oliver you can potentially only lose minimal points and save yourself trades. I always like to look at this advice from fellow SuperCoach expert @laughingracoon. 

The whole basis of this is that by sideways trading a premium to a premium you’ll make a short-term gain, however in the long run you’ll fall behind as those who have held onto Oliver will be able to have him plus that premium that you sideways traded him for. Thus especially for the rest of the season, you’ll end up losing more points and losing a trade. 

The trade argument

Now because Melbourne is not being very open about his return time, you could push to trade him just on the basis that he could miss a few more than 1-2 weeks. When it was first reported they mentioned it could be up to a month but that would depend on how Clarry was feeling. In similar circumstances this week, GWS confirmed Josh Kelly will miss four weeks with a hamstring strain suffered in the second term against St Kilda, yet he played that game out. But Kelly is very injury prone, so there’s likely more caution there.

If you were to trade Oliver, you’d want to be able to get a midfield premium that’s potentially underpriced and use that bonus cash to upgrade a rookie to another premium thus turning it into a 2-for-1 trade just like if you were to trade 2 normal rookies. This can be further accomplished as we now have the trade boost to use in SuperCoach allowing us to make up to three trades. So even if you can do a 3 for 2 with the residual cash from an Oliver trade would be considered a win. However, this should only be if you have residual trades left in the bank as mentioned above, it would take three, if not four, trades just to get him back in from a rookie-priced player. 

So what do I think? Well, it is a simple equation, if you have spare trades left over or don’t feel like Oliver will get back to his 120+ average post-injury then you can definitely offload him in order to help fund another premium upgrade. In saying that though if you’re like me and have been churning through trades like no tomorrow, then it’s probably wiser to hold onto him as the best-case scenario would be that he only misses two games and returns before his bye in Round 14. The Dees have mentioned that they’ll be extra conservative with his approach but have also let him participate in training which contradicts each other. 

Oliver replacements

Speaking of, which players do I recommend trading Oliver to?

Christian Petracca  (SC $659k Mid)

The obvious move would be to trade him to another Melbourne premium midfielder and the second highest-scoring midfielder for the Dees is Christian Petracca. There isn’t a lot of data on Melbourne games when Oliver misses just because he’s so reliable. However, the last time Melbourne was without Clarry, Petracca was the highest-scoring Melbourne player scoring 141. Now it isn’t unrealistic to see Petracca take a step up on his current 117 average as he’s had a very good last four games of football averaging 135 in that period of time. If you’re looking for a riskier selection then Angus Brayshaw has had great success in that Melbourne midfield when used in there scoring 123, 113, 113 and 83 in the final four games of 2022. Round 14 bye.

Zach Merrett (SC $583k Mid)

A midfielder coming off a hot game of 162 and playing two of the worst sides in the competition is very much a recipe for success if you’re looking to pick up Zach Merrett. With Parish out of the team and Setterfield also missing weeks with a calf and foot injury respectively, Merrett is carrying the Bombers midfield and showed that with an awesome 162 on the weekend. However, if you’re buying into him you must beware that the Eagles are currently being party poopers and deploying a tagger in Xavier O’Neill who’s done solid jobs on Noah Anderson and Will Day in the past two weeks restricting them to sub-100 scores. North have had run-with roles for Kayne Turner or Bailey Scott too. Even if Merrett does get attention in those two games, I’d likely still back him to beat the tag and get off the chain given the quality of footballer he is. Round 14 bye.

Rory Laird (SC $598k Mid)

Rory Laird hasn’t necessarily had a bad month of footy, but it hasn’t been up to his standards after being a consistent 120+ midfielder in the past few seasons. He’s currently sub $600k which is basically the cheapest he’s been but after a great game carrying the Crows midfield scoring a 145. He’s ripe for the picking if you don’t own him. Consider bye structure as always at this time of year. Round 14 bye.

Tom Green (SC $585k Mid)

With the news that Josh Kelly is out with an injury for the next month, all eyes will be on Tom Green who’s got a golden run in the next three with a depleted Cats midfield, Richmond and North. Green has had some great games this season scoring above 115 four times but also some other games where you would be disappointed he didn’t ton up or go bigger. Depending on how your byes are structured he could be a gem that you don’t want to miss out on. Round 15 bye.

Patrick Cripps (SC $536k Mid)

At some point, the Blues just have to bounce back and that’s just on the basis that they’ve had a shocking last three weeks, albeit against strong opposition. Cripps has seen his form dim dramatically only averaging 76.7 in his last three, but after a hot start to his season scoring 110+ in five of his first seven games, he and the whole Carlton team should be bouncing back and there’s no better time than a wobbly Sydney side. Round 15 bye.

Value prospects

As mentioned above, if you’re looking to trade in but aren’t looking to break the bank, then maybe some of these guys with plenty of upside should be in your consideration. 

Bailey Dale (SC $447k Def)

Dale has very much fallen off the radar as a premium prospect this season only managing an 86.5 average. However, an important injury occurred on the weekend which is set to free up Dale for more of his trademark run and carry. Jason Johannisen suffered another serious hamstring injury and his successful deployment in the backline has seen Dale dip in scoring by a heap just on the fact that he’s not needed as much. But after JJ went down, Dale went full seagull mode racking up 36 disposals and nine marks as well as taking in most of the kick-ins. Priced at just under $450k, he could very well see a rise back to his $550k+ mark as last year he was one of the most consistent premium defenders having a high floor as he only dipped under 90, 6 times last year. Round 15 bye.

Jordan Ridley (SC $414k Def)

I mentioned to him a few weeks ago, purely on the basis that his concussion meant that he’ll drop in price a ton and that has happened even with a very respectable 122 last week against the Tigers. This week he takes on the Eagles who gave every Hawthorn player their own personal best in scoring (except for poor Will Day). While he currently shares kick-in duties with Mason Redman, Ridley’s best role has been as an intercepting third tall with an accurate kick. The returns of Jayden Laverde, Jake Kelly and the emergence of Kaine Baldwin should make life easier for Ridley to return to his best role. Add on top of this that he plays against two easy to score against opposition and he very well could jump back up to premium status. Round 14 bye.

Jackson Macrae (SC $551k Mid)

A season high for Macrae who dominates at Ballarat, not only am I putting him here just on the basis that he’s priced cheap for a midfielder but he’s also very close to achieving DPP status to get Mid/Fwd. Currently priced at $551k, it seems that Macrae is now being shoved out to an outside midfielder/wing role, which is hurting his scoring in the short term. He’s still scoring well enough to be a top six forward. Having that Fwd status next week will also free up a midfield premium spot for you as well. But remember Luke Beveridge likes to swap players’ roles on a week-to-week basis so you don’t necessarily need to jump on him now. He currently averages 133 against the Suns so he could be a masterstroke trade-in (He does average 63 at TIO Stadium but he’s only played one game and that was in his second season, so weight that less). Round 15 bye.

Read our look at the likely DPP additions after Round 11

Jeremy Cameron (SC $486k Fwd)

At one stage Jeremy Cameron was the number one ranked forward after having an awesome first five games of the season, however, he very much cooled off as Geelong suffered a number of injuries. Furthermore, with Tom Hawkins playing back into form, it did seem difficult for both to score well. Cameron is currently cheaper than his starting price and just like every key forward does pose a risk in that one week he’ll score 60 and the next he’ll score 130+. Even though their next block of fixtures does look tough in the Dogs, Port and Dees. We’ve seen Cameron perform when Geelong needs him the most and starting this week against a depleted GWS backline who’ve just lost more defenders in Haynes and even Himmelberg who was swung back. It makes it look like a walk in the park for the Cats’ forward line (if they can win it from the midfield). Juicy Round 13 bye.

Read In The Wings for our review of the best VFL performers last weekend & likely Round 11 debutants