The Buzz: Is Humphrey the best rookie? Plus Hopper/Setters upgrades & are DC and Walsh worth chasing?

The Buzz is back for Round 10, analysing many SuperCoaches’ dilemma this week, is Bailey Humphrey really worth downgrading to at his inflated price? Ethan Lee looks at the alternatives and assesses the popular trade-ins.

Is Bailey Humprey really the best rookie?

A lot of the talk of the town this week has been whether we pay for another $200k Gold Coast rookie. Folks last week would be satisfied with Rory Atkins’ 62 he scored but would have hoped for a bit more given other rookies like Weddle and Humphrey scored more for a cheaper price. With that being said, Humphrey’s 117 on the weekend was a clear standout but it poses another question what is his true scoring potential and is he a good enough rookie to hold on throughout the byes

Humphrey (SC $214k Mid/Fwd) is an exciting high half-forward who can light up games in an instant, similar to the mould of Isaac Heeney or Cam Rayner. He’s shown flashes of this already with a 10-disposal, 2-goal effort after coming on as the sub against the Roos. However, there are patches where he goes missing as he’s been subbed out twice having nil to no impact on games. However, in the past 2 games, he’s been elevated to the starting lineup managing to play out a complete game and scoring very well against 2 different quality opposition in the Dees and Eagles. His heat maps indicate 2 different types of games that he played. 

Round 8 Heatmap vs Dees (DFS)

Round 9 Heatmap vs Eagles (DFS)

Most notably against the Eagles he played more of a forward half game but that would have been expected given that they were playing much weaker opposition, whereas against the Dees, a lot of his ball was won in the back. Given that their next few games are against strong opposition in the Lions, Dogs and Crows before the bye it may be difficult for him to produce his natural game which relies more on winning the ball in the front half and turning it into scores. But given his talent I wouldn’t be surprised if he could produce the goods. 

But what are the alternatives?

Harry Sharp (SC $124k Mid) is currently the number one traded-in rookie-priced player having scored 40 and 68 over the last two weeks and priced almost basement price. The benefit of this is that you’re saving almost 1$00k by making this trade. What worries me though is that his inclusion of Daniel Rich will force him or Wilmot out of the team as currently they’re playing Sharp as a genuine winger and have pushed Wilmot back to a half-back flanker. Job security on that one might be not great given that their bye is Round 12 which gives Rich enough time to rest up.

Thomas Berry (SC $124k Fwd) is another player who is on the bubble this week and is playing as a pure pressure forward for the Suns. His scoring is like every pressure forward scoring a 57 and 48, but what worries me more is that his inclusion has come as a result of the injuries of Ben Ainsworth and Nick Holman. Both of them just need to pass a fitness test to return to the team this week, he could very well stay in the team after both of their inclusions given the Suns performing well in the last 2 but with Sam Flanders putting up ridiculous numbers in the VFL you’d be banking on Berry to put in some equally amazing performances to hold his spot. Personally, I’m not the biggest fan again because we need rookies more than ever during the byes.

Read Stuart Dew’s comments on the Berry/Holman dilemma here

Blake Drury (SC $103k Mid/Fwd) has the best job security of all the rookies less than $123k and that’s purely on the basis that the Roos had about 50 injuries on the weekend which means by default he should keep his spot in the team. He played an impressive first half of footy against the Saints but like most North players, was unsighted in his game against the Power. Drury is likely to be a slow burner given that we don’t know what he’ll score but given the large injury toll to the North lineup, you can probably pencil him in for the whole bye periods.

Mitch Knevitt (SC $208k Mid) was one rookie I was happy to pass up but he’s seemed to cement the wing role for himself at the Cats given their lengthy injury list. The tall wingman has played back-to-back impressive games after being the sub in Round 6 and could be an alternative if you’re not a fan of Humprey’s scoring being $6k cheaper. 

Francis Evans (SC $146k Fwd) has been another name that has been floated after a solid two-goal outing against the Roos, however, given that he was the nominated sub in Rounds 1 and 8 he’s likely just covering for one of the small forwards missing like Junior Rioli so he could very well find himself back in the green vest once his suspension has finished. 

So is he the best option to bring in? Yes and no, I love the upside he can bring given the role he plays in the team. However, a lot has to go right for that to happen as it seems he is a bit of a downhill skier. I would be trading him in with the expectation that he holds his spot throughout the full bye periods. But if you’re looking for pure cash generation, then Knevitt or even Drury might be better options given that they’re cheaper and have a more consistent role.

Hopper/Setterfield replacements

With the Tigers revealing that Hopper has sustained a calf injury, it should see the mid-pricer sit out until their bye of Round 15 which is not good news for everyone. Hence we’ve all jumped ship with him. If you’ve got some money in the bank then obviously target the big guns but if you’re struggling for some funds then maybe consider some of these options below. (Those who have Setterfield can also look at some of the options below given they’re in a similar scenario

Matt Rowell (SC $543k Mid) 

Many people jumped on his best mate Noah Anderson last week and for good reason as he’s been playing in the form of his life, but after Anderson copped a tag all game. Rowell was free to roam loose all game, scoring a season-high 165. Rowell has had problems finding the right balance to his game after having some of the most impressive first few games of any player but in his last 5 games, he’s looked to fix this, especially after the loss of Touk Miller to the midfield. Don’t get me wrong he won’t be scoring 165 every week, but with how he plays it fits the supercoach model so well being a contested bull. If he can win some more easy ball on the outside he can definitely challenge being a 105+ premo and be a keeper.

Luke Parker (SC $521k Mid) 

As a SuperCoach player, we’ve always had a love-hate relationship with Parker as he’s found himself scoring tons for multiple weeks but then has a stinker in between when you least expect it. So far he’s had a slower start only averaging 93.8, but his last 4 games have been awe-inspiring scoring 4 tons. Notably he’s increased his centre bounce attendance in the last 3 so that he attends nearly all of them. With the loss of Callum Mills to the side, I’d expect Parker to be a mainstay in that Sydney midfield. While he’s just gone on the wrong side of 30, he’s very much considered an AFL iron man only missing 1 game since 2015.

Matt Kennedy (SC $348k Mid) 

This one is a bit of a wildcard option but as long as you believe he’s firmly a part of Michael Voss’s plans to be in the midfield mix, he should return to some of his 2022 scoring. So far this year you would see that he’s had 3 games scoring under 50. 2 of those however have come as the sub for the Blues which shocked many. But in the games he’s avoided the vest he’s scored 96,110, 41, 80 and 89. Last year Kennedy averaged around 96.7 but that included 8 tons and plenty of scores of 90’s. He’s still a part of that Carlton inside midfield brigade for the time being but there’s certainly a limited room with the likes of Adam Cerra and Sam Walsh spending time at half-back and half-forward respectively. However, at his current price of $348k, it’s very much a bargain that you will be able to flip after the byes or better yet he could very well become an M8/9 loophole option.

Dom Sheed (SC $432k Mid) 

Another pick similar to Kennedy, he’s got a lot of value attributed to him at the moment. After starting out at a similar price to Hopper, he’s missed five games of football thanks to an unfortunate throat injury. However, since he’s returned he’s scored 115 and 90. The good news if you want to get him is that he’s going to get a favoured inside midfield role as there’s no competition at the Eagles. He doesn’t have a super high ceiling but he does accumulate the ball meaning that he will have a higher floor than others in his price range. Can he push that 100+ mark? It would be a stretch and a career-best for him but a 95+ is achievable and like Kennedy, you can flip him after his bye or keep him as a loophole option. Remember we want to eliminate the rookies so we can avoid their poor scores. 

Popular trade-ins

There’s a reason why the players below are the most popular trade-ins but does it make sense to do so? Let’s have a look.

Darcy Cameron (SC $494k Ruc/Fwd) 

Currently, the fifth most popular trade-in, Cameron looks set to be made available by the Pies this week for their giant clash against the Blues, as the Magpies’ ruck stocks are essentially non-existent right now through injury. We’ve already had a sneak peek of what he can do with a 103, 137 and 89 (injured at 3QT) and does have a favourable matchup against the Eagles in a few weeks’ time meaning it could be the last time he’s this cheap. My only concern is that because Mason Cox is now fit and firing, do they 50/50 split the ruck time and nurse Cameron back in? Because we did see towards the 2nd half of 2022 when Cameron was tiring out, Cox took over more of the ruck contests which dipped Cameron’s scores slightly. Something worth considering but he’s exceptional value this week if he’s ready to play you just need to hope he’s doing the lion’s share of the ruckload. 

Sam Walsh (SC $611k Mid) 

While on the surface it does sound like the obvious pick seeing how he’s toned up in every game he’s played, the reason I’m saying he’s a lock even at his expensive price of $610k is that he’s currently on track to achieve DPP (40% forward time from five games) status before Round 12. As a forward, he would be the second highest averaging forward being Taranto so it’s important to leave space for these guys who could get DPP very shortly. Unless Voss does us coaches dirty and moves him permanently into the midfield, we should be getting him in when we can since he has a handy Round 15 bye. 

Zach Merrett (SC $565k Mid) 

With news that Darcy Parish has been ruled out with a month-long calf strain, there were some quick to jump on Zerrett who has an incredible run into the bye with the Tigers, Eagles and North all of who conceded bulk points to opposition midfielders. Generally, Merrett starts the year at $600k+ and has a few off games which push his price down enough, but he always fires back to end up averaging 110+ every year. This looks to be the time to pick him up as he’s down $50-60k. As of writing this Setterfield has broken his foot so there’s literally no one but Merrett to carry the Dons midfield it seems for the full bye period. Maybe if you’re a bit pessimistic you could hold off after the Eagles game as they were very adamant to just fully tag an opposition’s best midfielder.

Errol Gulden (SC $560k Mid/Fwd) 

There probably hasn’t been a more in-form player than Errol Gulden right now and he’s still only $560k to pick up. That is mainly thanks to a dismal 47 he had against the Cats. But take out that one shocker of a game in which none of the Sydney players showed up, he would be averaging a massive 116 which would rank him as the number 1 forward and number 6 in all positions. It looks to be a huge no-brainer as he also has North coming up who are missing their best midfielder, as well as Mills missing from the Sydney team. If you remember back to the preseason when Gulden played as a pure inside mid he went ballistic against the Blues. This will be the last chance that you can pick him up for a while as he’s projected to go up to $600k next week.