Round 9 is almost here and a lot of SuperCoaches are wading through th Rory Atkins rumours and pondering trading him in. But it’s a complex one, given his job security, bit his price and scoring are seductive.
HB’s Ethan Lee weighs up Atkins, along with a shortlist of under-valued premiums to have on your radar incoming weeks. Plus he orders the rooks on who needs to go ASAP.
Is Rory Atkins a legitimate rookie selection
This week, a lot of debate has been about the correct rookie to bring in as a few of our starting rookies have hit their ceiling or will likely be sitting out due to injury or suspension. That leaves a very awkwardly priced Rory Atkins (SC $204k Def/Mid) a very tempting option as he’s currently on the bubble with a respectable average of 78.5 from his first two games. However, given that he’s only played 23 games in the last four seasons it begs the question. What has changed for the 28-year-old to now be an option in the Gold Coast team and does he keep his role in the team long term?
Atkins has predominately been a winger for most of his career, he was very prolific in his prime for the Crows playing the wing role. Since moving to the Suns he has played the same position initially but in the last year, he got shifted back to the half-back line. Currently, he’s averaging 26 disposals in the VFL and 23.5 disposals in his first two games. What makes him a great fantasy option however is that he loves to kick the ball averaging 3.7 kicks per handball. With his addition to the team, he was included in the kick outs for the Suns, sharing the duties with fellow pseudo-premium Will Powell.
Rory Atkins Heatmap Rd7 (DFS)
Rory Atkins Heatmap Rd8 (DFS)
But what is the worry for him? Well as mentioned above his job security is very much unknown unless you’re a selector for the Suns. It could be dependent on a week-by-week basis on whether he keeps his spot in the team but based on his first two games I see no reason why he wouldn’t hold his spot. There are the likes of Constable, Farrar, Andrew and Uwland who do play in the backline and could be a straight swap. However Constable has had many weeks of good stats and barely made the emergencies, Farrar is more structure dependent as he’s likely to play on a tall and finally Uwland did break into the team at the start of the year but since his demotion hasn’t had big numbers to break back into the team. Atkins replaced Andrew in the side a fortnight ago. Other talented wingers like Jeremy Sharp and Elijah Hollands also could be swapped for Atkins however would require a few structural changes as these guys are more pure wingers instead.
However, one inclusion that you would be sweating on would be Lachie Weller, the speedy halfback flanker who has missed the last two games with a nagging knee injury. The Suns are playing it conservatively after he did his ACL last year which make his return an unknown date. When Atkins was included in the team, Weller was playing more on the wing rather than rebounding as the half-back flank. So because of this, i would think that Atkins should be safe even if all the guns are back. However structurally if Weller goes back to the half back flank, I can see a world where he is squeezed out.
Is he currently the best rookie to pick up? Yes, he is and by quite a margin. The only other rookie on the bubble is Josh Weddle who while is a very impressive athlete doesn’t necessarily translate to a good SC rookie. A host of Hawks players are set to return which includes Changkuoth Jiath and an in-form Cam Mackenzie who could squeeze out Weddle out this week so i don’t like that option. Your other options are currently Blake Drury or Thomas Berry, both of who have played their first and will need more data to work out whether they are going to be good rookies for us. Finally, guys like Bailey Humphrey, Campbell Chesser, Mitch Knevitt and Jack Bytel are all options who have had their first or multiple price changes however a lot of them come with risks as they have been the sub in the past so are likely to be the first one out if they have a poor game.
So does that make him a good option? Yes and no. He is pricier than a normal rookie which will stifle your cash generation as you’ll make less cash for this downgrade. However, up to the bye he could be the only rookie out of the ones listed above still playing in the team. It’s essentially, are you willing to pay a premium for both better scoring and potential for better job security. I wouldn’t be wasting multiple trades just to bring him in but if it is convenient for you to make this downgrade whilst also getting an upgrade you want then this is an option I would recommend. Otherwise, we can wait a week on guys like Berry and Drury and decide whether they are good picks.
Add them to your shortlist
A host of premium selections are set to become affordable across the byes and with the extra trade up your sleeve it is important to bring in these players at the right time. But who should we be keeping an eye on in the next few weeks
Lachie Neale (SC $594k Mid)
Lachie Neale was one player that everyone had avoided after the addition of Josh Dunkley to the Brisbane midfield however he hasn’t really slowed down too much averaging 106.6 and still being the 13th-highest-scoring midfielder this year. His poor game against the Blues was more due to other players stepping up like Dunkley who had a monster game. Additionally, Carlton is a team that doesn’t concede many points to the opposition midfielders Given his bye week is a few weeks away he will carry the 63 in his 3-round scoring range for most of them which means by the time the bye hits he will bottom out at around 550k which is a huge steal for one of the most proven premiums.
Luke Davies-Uniake (SC $517k Mid)
LDU was one of the hottest players to own in the first few weeks after opening up with back-to-back 140+ games. However, he has been grounded by various injuries and has only toned up against the Blues back in Round 4. A season low of 59 against the Saints means that coming into the bye he could very well be sub $500k. Now why would I be suggesting him then if he’s currently struggling with an injury? Well after the bye LDU finished home like a house on fire with 7 tons in 10 games which made him a preseason favourite this year. Keep an eye on him if he gets over his injury because we’ve already seen the potential he has, it is just a matter of whether he can be free of a niggling injury.
Jordan Ridley (SC $427k Def)
Unfortunately due to the concussion he sustained against the Power his price will crash below $400k. However, for a player that in the last few years has been a sustainable 90+ averaging defender then for the price you might pay at $350k potentially after his bye. That will be an absolute steal of a get. He has only toned up once this season but the rest of his scores have been very commendable with his scores ranging between 70 and 96. Keep in mind that because of Laverde’s injury, he has been forced to play more of a lockdown role for the bombers rather than the free-flowing intercept-type marking defender he loves to be. Once their preferred tall timber is back into the backline we could see Ridley resurge to a 95+ average and for $350k that is perfect for a D6/7 loophole option.
Mark Blicavs (SC $519k Mid/Ruc)
It is been a while since Mark Blicavs has been a genuinely relevant SuperCoach option as he’s been known for being a jack of all trades. This season he’s shifted from being a genuine wingman to back to being the on-ball midfielder and backup ruckman. That is something we would only see the likes of Tim English be able to do as his stat lines are very impressive as he manages to accumulate disposals, marks, hitouts, tackles and on occasion has hit the scoreboard. With news that Dangerfield is out with a hamstring strain and Guthrie struggling to overcome a toe injury. The midfield mix is going to have to be led by Blicavs and a host of other young midfielders. What makes him a tantalising prospect is that he does have a mid/ruck DPP which is unique to only him.
Bailey Smith (SC $498k Mid/Fwd)
A hamstring strain for Adam Treloar means that there is an inside midfield role to take up in the Dogs’ engine room. So far this year both Macrae and Bailey Smith have been pushed toward the outer with Smith being limited to wing or high-half-forward roles. However many forget that he was a very popular pick last year after he received his first DPP and was close to averaging 100 last year. If he gets back to his inside midfield role however we could see a resurgence and an improvement from his current 91.0 average. My only worry would be that in recent DPP calculations, there are guys like Walsh, Gawn, Petracca and Macrae who are very close to the 35% DPP threshold, so we could have even better options in the forward line.
Is it time to go?
There are quite a few rookies who are close to hitting their ceiling this week, but with a lack of players to trade in is it the best option to trade them out? Let’s investigate
Will Ashcroft (SC $374k Mid)
The most popular traded-out player as he had a quiet game against the Blues last week with a 37 and was very much down on his disposal count. However, his role still stayed the same in fact it probably hinted that he was pushed into the midfield mix more due to the injury to Dayne Zorko. Yes unfortunately his cash generation will be staggered for the next 2 weeks. However, we don’t have many rookies who can provide a 70+ score on a week-to-week basis with a ceiling of around 100. For me he should be a hold given they have a few easy games coming up before and after the bye, but certainly it didn’t look like he was tired or carrying an injury during the game. He just had an off game as most 1st year players do at some point. He will bounce back against the Bombers.
Fergus Greene (SC $268k Fwd)
Since Mitch Lewis’s return to the team, Greene’s role has become redundant as the team’s pseudo-full forward. Scoring a measly 28 and 17 before being subbed out. While it was a good ride having him between rounds 4 to 6. He is no longer required to play the same role and thus should be moved on swiftly before he bleeds more cash. Who knows he may even be dropped this week given the return of Breust and Brockman who played a very good game in the 2’s.
Connor McKenna (SC $307k Def)
Owners of McKenna would have hoped for a better score of 46 from the Irishman after the news that Daniel Rich tweaked a hammy last week. While his BE is achievable you could still move him on if you have an upgrade target in mind. But given that he’s still taking the majority of kick outs with Rich out of the team. I’d be holding till he returns as we’ve seen in the first few weeks he does have a nice ceiling that he can reach.
Jacob van Rooyen (SC $248k Fwd)
This one is at the discretion of the AFL appeals board after JVR was slapped with what could be described as a harsh 2-week ban. If they don’t let him off then it is an obvious trade, however, given that he does play the Hawks this week, it could be a feeding frenzy for him. In saying that he has yo-yoed in terms of scoring only managing a 33 against North while turning it up against top opposition like Sydney and Richmond.
Oskar Baker (SC $285k Mid)
Baker has been a solid contributor for our midfield, making around $160k so far but his ceiling looks to be hit as he’s only scored above 59 in 2 games this season. The good news is that you know what you’ll get from him and that’s a solid score of around 50-60 points per week which means his price shouldn’t fluctuate too much. So it’s also viable to hold him as well.
Ollie Hollands (SC $290k Def)
I could write the same thing as I have for Baker because it is very much true, his points scoring ranges a bit better than Baker, however. But you know what you’ll get in terms of scoring so it doesn’t necessarily mean it’s a must-trade for this week. I’d hold unless you have a premium you want to get
Darcy Wilmot (SC $265k Def/Mid)
He has one more small cash jump in him and then he’s peaked in price but like the others I’ve mentioned above getting ahead of the curve can be important so an early trade can be useful but isn’t necessary.
Will Setterfield (SC $409k Mid)
Many jumped off him this week as I mentioned last week in my analysis, his inside midfield role is slowly diminishing and last week it totally vanished playing a fully outside wing role for the Bombers with no CBAs. The only positive I had for him is that Darcy Parish’s absence opens up a mid spot for him and after this week he has the Tigers, Eagles and North. For all teams that like to concede points to opposition midfielders, this leads him into the bye perfectly so if you’ve held him for this extra week I’d argue its worth holding him for at least till then as you’ll have an extra trade to play with when moving him to a premo.
I currently make at least $37,000 a month on the road doing extremely honest and clean work online from home. “a11 Now stay close to this job and earn more online until , after training on a specific website.
Click here…….. http://workings11.blogspot.com