SuperCoach trade thoughts: Is it time to hit the panic button?
A strange opening round to the 2023 SuperCoach season gave us many underperformers and just as many rage trade tendencies. Do we hold firm on our underperformers, or is one week enough to hit the trade button?
It has always been about keeping the faith in your premiums, or almost everyone you select for that matter. But the increase in trades in recent seasons has allowed for more aggressive trading, and riskier plays that might have been seen as silly and a waste of trades in the past.
DEFENCE
Defenders for the most part performed strongly, particularly the most talked about 500k premiums in Nick Daicos ($502.5k, 129), Jordan Ridley ($504.3k, 107) and Hayden Young ($508.2k, 137). But there were a couple of popular selections that hurt teams (some not their fault), along with a couple of relevant point of differences (PODs).
Tom Stewart ($604k) – 18
It’s unfair to put Stewart here as an “underperformer”, but his low score makes him relevant to the trade conversation. Although he’s already ruled out for this week vs Carlton, Geelong have said Stewart’s injury is not long-term. But with a BE (breakeven) of 201, plus the fact we have 36 trades, it’s worth letting Stewart go and bringing him back later in the season.
Bailey Dale ($561.1k) – 56
Dale got the short end of the stick against Melbourne, sharing points across half back with Ed Richards ($460.4k, 106) and Caleb Daniel ($495.2k, 99). Richards’ improvement late last season lowered Dale’s floor and ceiling. With that in mind, as long as there are no other pressing issues, I’d be fine trading Dale down to a Daicos/Ridley/Young or if you have the cash, up to a Sam Docherty ($603.6k), Jordan Dawson ($603.1k) or James Sicily ($624.7k).
Will Day ($362.1k) – 60
Day’s mid time has increased this season, but while he put up a 98 in AF, it didn’t translate to SC. His scoring avenues are limited, playing more of an outside role and not getting as many CBAs (8/31, 26%). I don’t mind giving Day another week and reassessing after R2 if he’s a must trade. Even giving it an extra week or two to wait on Elliot Yeo ($337k) or Jack Bowes ($277.5k) might be a play to consider.
Liam Jones ($228.1k) – 5
Like Stewart, it’s not fair to classify Jones as an “underperformer” (although his scoring wasn’t looking good before the injury), but his score has made him relevant to the topic. Jones is a wait and see for me. Hopefully team selections allow owners to save a trade, as there’s plenty of scoring potential vs St Kilda (considering how the Freo defenders scored).
MIDFIELD
It wasn’t the round for midfielders in general, with only 6 of the 14 600k+ mids (excluding Walsh) hitting the ton, and just Patrick Cripps ($611.9k) cracking 120. There were a couple of underwhelming midpricers to go along with the rough premium scoring.
Rory Laird ($703.9k) – 50
One of the most unfathomable things to come out of R1 was this man dropping a turd. I’m firmly on the side of holding, he’s too good to not bounce back and I highly doubt he’ll have to play in those conditions again. However, I can see why trading him is being considered, if the extra cash can make your team better.
Andrew Brayshaw ($615.6k) – 70
Brayshaw filled up the stat sheet, finishing on 114 AF, but the lack of contested ball along with 50% disposal efficiency and 6 clangers contributed to the massive difference in AF/SC scoring. No need to worry, he’ll be fine, plus Freo are up against North Melbourne and West Coast in the next fortnight.
Jacob Hopper ($332k) – 67
An underwhelming first game in the yellow and black for Hopper, and it’s not ideal as one of the most owned midpricers in SC. He had 13/20 CBAs (65%) but a lack of contested ball and low time on ground (72%). He still has the role, and going up against the Carlton midfield is a tough first gig. See how he fares against Adelaide.
Will Ashcroft ($202.8k) – 55
There’s been a small bit of noise around trading Ashcroft after a quiet debut. It would be a huge risk to trade considering he’s owned by just about everyone, and his on field score won’t matter as much. I’d keep the faith, he had lots of opportunity in the middle and Brisbane were dominated in the second half vs Port.
RUCKS
There were massive scores mixed with poor ones in the ruck department. Max Gawn ($622.1k, 140) showed it doesn’t matter where you play him, he’s that good. Jarrod Witts ($605.1k, 140) matched Gawn, while Tim English ($581k, 134) also went big.
Brodie Grundy ($512.9k) – 69
Grundy had a much quieter game out of himself and Gawn. He had more CBAs with 16/29 (55%) compared to Gawn’s 13/29 (45%), but went at just 52% disposal efficiency and only 69% time on ground. With a much lower ceiling and floor, I see Grundy as a trade if you have him.
Rowan Marshall ($506.5k) – 80
An underwhelming start for everyone’s consensus first ruck. There were some concerns around his shoulder, but fortunately he’s not listed on St Kilda’s injury report. Sean Darcy was a tough first matchup, and Marshall had 100% CBAs, so I trust him to bounce back quickly.
FORWARDS
The issues in the forward line lie with the midpricers, with many popular selections flopping in R1. Jason Horne-Francis ($348.8k, 136) has become a popular trade in target after his best on ground performance vs Brisbane.
Nat Fyfe ($313.6k) – 26
Fyfe had a night to forget against St Kilda, with just 9 touches, going at 55% efficiency and 6 clangers. With his permanent forward role and now knowing he’s capable of a score this bad, this is a good opportunity to move on from him. In saying that, Freo’s two week fixture vs North Melbourne and West Coast is something to consider as well.
Tanner Bruhn ($311.4k) – 58
Bruhn looked the goods in the first quarter vs Collingwood, getting plenty of inside mid time. Unfortunately it wasn’t the same the rest of the way, spending a lot of time on the bench (64% TOG) and having limited inside mid exposure. His drop-off seemed to coincide with Brandan Parfitt getting subbed on for Tom Stewart, throwing off Geelong’s midfield rotation. I’d give Bruhn one more shot to see how he’s used, but if a trade works for the betterment of your team, I’m not opposed to it.
Sam Flanders ($256.3k) – 64
Flanders was used in his expected half-forward role, but unfortunately had a quiet one as Gold Coast were dominated. This would’ve especially hurt those who didn’t have Harry Sheezel ($198.3k, 114) like myself (yeah I know). I’m personally trading Flanders to Sheezel because Sheezel is a must. For everyone else that owns Sheezel, it might best to see how Flanders goes once more. Or if you have the cash, you could go up to a JHF, Jack Ziebell ($356.4k, 102) or even Ryan Byrnes ($262.6k, 92) if you’re bold enough.