Which high-owned players should you avoid? AFL Fantasy Expert Panel weigh in on big fades

With the clock ticking down on the start of the AFL season, AFL Fantasy coaches are making tough calls to finalise their starting squads, so Honeyball asked the experts for some quick tips.

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In the Honeyball AFL Fantasy magazine we compiled a panel of experts and asked them which players were locks, avoids/fades, breakouts and must-have rookies.

The panel consisted of;

2022 AFL Fantasy winner Matt Mottram,
2020 AFL Fantasy winner Trent Sutcliffe,
2022 AFL Fantasy runner-up James English,
2021 AFL Fantasy third-placer James Wilson,
2022 AFL Fantasy 39^th rank Mini Monk,
2022 AFL Fantasy 54^th rank Gary Flynn.

Below is the excerpt from the panel’s answers on avoids/fades but for the full version, purchase the Honeyball AFL Fantasy magazine for only $9.95 via this link.

HB: Which high-owned players will you fade/leave out?

James Wilson

Scott Lycett – You know ruck stocks are slim when people are considering Lycett as their R2. When fit he’s an 80-85 points-per-game ruckman. But when has he ever been fit for a full year? He hasn’t played over 18 games in the past four years and with Brynn Teakle more than serviceable at AFL level I expect Scotty to get a rest or two throughout the year (if he doesn’t get injured that is). Did I mention he’s over 30-years-old?

MiniMonk

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Tim English – Probably a controversial opinion but English isn’t the clear top option that many think he is. His lower scores didn’t come due to injury or role sharing and so his average is probably a true representation of his scoring prowess. Combine that with his tough run to start the year meaning he should come down in price, I think English is one that we can upgrade into.

Gary Flynn

Maintaining the ruck theme, I have little doubt that Tim English will finish as one of the top three averaging rucks, but at this stage I plan to fade him to start and look to get him around Round 6, hopefully at a reduced price. I was originally keen to start with English given that Stefan Martin has retired and Rory Lobb is a reluctant ruckman, preferring to play as a key forward. However, English suffered an adductor issue in pre-season and more recently he was sidelined with hamstring soreness. An interrupted pre-season is never ideal and when you look at English’s opponents in the first three rounds there is a strong chance he will start slowly and his price will drop.

Trent Sutcliffe

At the moment, due to his interrupted pre-season, I won’t choose Tim English. Priced at 101.8 and with a slow recovery injury history, and against Gawndy R1, Marshall R2, Big O R3 and Nank R4 makes we want to have a look. One low score early should see potentially a drop to $870k. Whilst he started 2022 with five tons, only one was over 107, his 138 vs Sydney. This means he’s a chance to begin well, but still be at a similar price after Round 5.

I am also partial to fading Tom Mitchell and Nick Daicos due to the Pies game style and the abundance of midfield options.

Matt Mottram

Some people will fade Titch but I don’t think I will. Depending on my structure, I might fade James Worpel, but that’s 50-50 after his final pre-season game. I’d prefer Dom Sheed over him as I think he’s more proven and his role is more certain. Worpel has got more question marks over him.

James English

I’ll say Stephen Coniglio. He’s priced at 98. I’ve got his range 96-110 in best case but in saying that, 110 is a 5% chance of happening. Most likely he’ll be around that 98-102 mark. There’s better value picks in the forwards.

Purchase the HB AFL Fantasy magazine via this link to read their locks, breakouts and rookies, plus much more.