With the season just days away, here are some personal takes on a few hot SuperCoach topics covering key premiums on each line of the field.
Every year preseason matches seem to bring more questions than answers. The 2023 season is right around the corner, and we explore some of the burning questions that are still leaving heads being scratched and teams being constantly changed.
Note: Ownership percentages are at the time of this being published.
DEFENCE: WHICH 600K PLAYER DO WE GO WITH?
Most teams are going light in defence, with just one or two premiums. I’m still deciding whether to go with one or two, and it’s tough to pick exactly who to run when all the options are such high quality.
Jack Sinclair: $626.2k, 7.1 % owned (AF $911k)
Sinclair was one of 2022’s biggest surprise packages, ending the season as the highest averaging defender with 113.7, after starting at just $469.7k. He did show signs of being taggable a couple of times last season, despite his incredible consistency. At his hefty price tag and a quieter preseason which also showed the possible emergence of Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (AF $555k SC $303k MID), I prefer some other options over Sinclair.
James Sicily: $624.7k, 20.3% owned (AF $854k)
Sicily started last season at just $448.1k after missing all of 2021, and he was insane in the first half of 2022. We know what he brings with his intercepting ability as well as his ability to attack, which is what makes him so good. The sharing of kick-ins with the likes of Blake Hardwick and Lachlan Bramble is a slight concern, and there is also the risk of being moved forward depending on the flow of the game. Can’t go wrong picking Sicily, but I’m okay with banking on a quiet game or two.
Tom Stewart: $604k, 32.6% owned (AF $836k)
Stewart elevated his ceiling to another level last season, with three scores over 160. He falls in the same boat as Sicily, those same traits make him so good as a player and as a selection for our teams. On top of that he’s the best player in the best defence in the league. He can go quiet when Geelong are dominating a game, and he’s also become a potential tag target. Geelong also don’t play at GMHBA Stadium until round six, where Stewart averaged 124.8 (and scored 160+ twice). With that in consideration, I don’t mind looking at Stewart as an upgrade target.
Sam Docherty: $603.6k, 34.3% owned (AF $977k)
Docherty was back to his very best in 2022, even seeing midfield time late last season, something that has carried over into Carlton’s plans this season. It’s another string to Docherty’s bow which already has the ability to intercept, seagull and attack off half back. The return of Sam Walsh (AF $916k SC $610k MID) is something to monitor, and how that affects Docherty. But that most likely just means less mid time and more of his regular role in defence. That versatility might make him an even stronger selection.
Jordan Dawson: $603.1k, 16.6% owned (AF $893k)
Dawson has been my pick for the majority of the preseason (I also now have Docherty as well). He had a quieter start to 2022 but got going, including a three game stretch of 140, 134, 144 which truly showcased his ceiling. He’s Adelaide’s no.1 kick in taker, their main outlet off half back, and he can push up the ground as well if needed. He can be prone to a tag, but showed he can still manage a respectable score from it. Adelaide should see plenty of footy in their defence, and I like Dawson’s chances of backing up his 2022 performance.
MIDFIELD: RORY LAIRD OR CLAYTON OLIVER? (OR BOTH OR NEITHER?)
Rory Laird (AF $1.066m SC $703k MID) and Clayton Oliver (AF $994k SC $699k MID) are the two most expensive players in the game, and it has been a hot debate on who to start out of the two of them. I personally have both and intend on keeping it that way, but some teams just don’t have the means for it (or prefer to not pay up).
Laird (25.7% owned) was already one of the most consistent players in the game, but has reached a whole new level since moving into the midfield a few seasons ago, averaging a career high 127.8 in 2022. He only dropped under the ton twice, with a season-low score of 93 against Port in round three (his first game of 2022).
The potential of a tag shouldn’t be a worry, as Laird is arguably the best stat sheet stuffer in the game right now. He’ll manage to find plenty of the ball regardless, and his tackle pressure is one of his best qualities. Out of the 20 games he played last season, he recorded less than five tackles just three times (rounds 3-5), and recorded double digit tackles six (!) times, including 20 against Collingwood in round 18.
Oliver (41.2% owned) has been up with the best for awhile now, averaging over 120 the past three seasons, including a career best 127.1 in 2022. We all know what makes him so elite and why he’s such a popular selection every year. You can make the case to pick him up as one of your first upgrades because of a potential tag-affected score, which has happened the last two seasons (R3 2021: 67 vs GWS, R4 2022: 68 vs PA).
Something else to consider is what you hope Clarry drops to if you’re banking on something like this (same argument can apply to Laird). In 2021, the gamble could be seen as a success, as he dropped to 591k in round six. Last season however, what could have been a massive drop in price was negated by a 168 vs Richmond just two weeks after his 68, which forced non-owners to pay up and upgrade to him at 618k. Melbourne may be looking to experiment more, but I can’t see that being a big issue when it comes to one of the team’s best players.
It’s like playing with fire having to bet against the best. You’d have to weigh up whether waiting for that price drop will be worth it, or if it’s just better to roll with them from the start.
I endorse starting both Laird and Oliver if you can, but if it’s not possible, I think you need at least one. Trying to upgrade to both barring something unlucky or unusual will be a pain and despite the hefty price tags, you know what you’ll get out of them 99% of the time. It will be a smoother and less stressful first few weeks if you start at least one. Out of the two, I’m leaning towards Laird. His stat-stuffing ability is unmatched and it’ll be a tough watch having to root against him, knowing that he’ll be everywhere.
RUCK: MARSHALL AND ???
Rowan Marshall ($506.5k, 53.1% owned) (AF $808k) is the obvious choice that everyone is going with, as the lone ruckman and extremely good value. The question is who lines up next to him?
Sean Darcy: $562.2k, 13.9% owned (AF $760k)
I currently have Darcy in my team next to Marshall, he has a great ceiling (which we saw in 2021) and he’s still young with plenty of upside. There’s durability risk, but Darcy’s played most games the past couple of years, playing 19 last season and 21 in 2021. Very small sample size, but it seems like Luke Jackson won’t have too much of an effect on him.
Jarrod Witts: $605.1k, 13.1% owned (AF $801k)
Witts had an unreal first half of 2022, but tailed off slightly to end the season. Can’t go wrong picking him, only downside is that he’s north of 600k, and someone like Darcy presents better value.
Tim English: $581k, 18.1% owned (AF $901k)
English can’t be ignored due to his first half of 2022 and the ceiling he showed. But he’s quite injury prone, missing seven games last season, and dealing with hamstring and adductor issues this preseason. With that durability risk in mind, I’m okay with fading him.
Max Gawn: $622.1k, 9.2% owned (AF $914k) & Brodie Grundy: $512.9k, 10.7% owned (AF $830k)
We’ve gone from Gawndy being our set and forget rucks for many years, to the two actually being on the same team. Against Richmond, they showed a glimpse of what they can be at their best working together, but I wouldn’t start either. Neither will get nearly as much ruck time as they did at their respective peaks, and they will be much better options from round six onwards when they get dpp status.
FORWARDS: WHICH 4 PREMIUMS DO WE PICK?
Josh Dunkley: $596.4k, 68.3% owned (AF $963k)
Lock. Nothing more to say.
Stephen Coniglio: $557.7k, 16.6% owned (AF $871k)
Coniglio has become a bit underrated as a selection now that Errol Gulden has taken over the spotlight (45 disposals and three goals will do that). The appeal is there with GWS’ starting fixture and the fact that Cogs is a key part of their midfield rotation (unlike when Leon Cameron was coaching).
Connor Rozee: $513.8k, 45.8% owned (AF $780k)
Rozee had a big second half of 2022 once his midfield minutes increased. It’s easy to see why he’s selected by so many, plenty of mid time and arguably underpriced. He can have some big clanger games, but the upside is too hard to ignore.
Tim Taranto: $503.1k, 56.7% owned (AF $846k)
Now at Richmond and doesn’t have to share as many midfield minutes. The role is better for an already prolific ball magnet, and it’s easy to see why he’s also a popular selection. Like Rozee, ball use can be a question, but that shouldn’t be a reason to not select him. The pros far outweigh the cons with Taranto.
Errol Gulden: $472k, 35.1% owned (AF $735k)
Gulden brought himself into the conversation after an insane performance against Carlton, with 45 disposals, three goals, 177 AF, 188 SC. Obviously the mid time won’t be as much with Mills back in the lineup, but Luke Parker has already touted Gulden for increased mid time, and even a small increase with his potential and ceiling makes him an appealing pick. Not to mention he’s much cheaper than the rest.
Unfortunately, you can’t have everyone. Dunkley is a no-brainer, most teams have Rozee and Taranto who have upside at their price points, leaving Coniglio and Gulden to fill the fourth premium forward spot (unless you’re going with all five). You can’t go wrong with either, but Gulden’s price and upside is hard to ignore. Now that he’s so highly owned, it would be quite a risk to bet against him, although you’d be laughing if you fade and it pays off. Many own the quartet of Dunkley, Rozee, Taranto and Gulden (including myself), and I believe it’s the way to go.
It’s all guesswork in the preseason, you can only get so much from practice matches and reports, and a lot of it will come down to luck. But that’s the beauty of playing and discussing SuperCoach. There isn’t really a wrong answer to a hot debate, it just comes down to personal preference and seeing how it pans out in the end. All the best in your SuperCoach (and Fantasy) seasons, and hope for good luck.
